Previewing the NCAA Tournament: Version 6.0
By alex berger - march 16, 2023The chaos of postseason college hockey has started. RIT convincingly won the Atlantic Hockey regular season title but fell to Holy Cross (#43 in the Pairwise) in the conference semifinals. The Crusaders will play Canisius this weekend for the championship and the right to play #1 Minnesota in the first round.
RIT/Canisius are the only pair of teams who have changed from last week's bracket (the Tigers are out, the Golden Griffins are in).
How The NCAA Tournament Field Is Determined
16 teams qualify for the NCAA tournament every year. Automatic bids are given to the conference postseason champions, and the other "at large" bids are calculated through the Pairwise. That is, long-story short, a mathematical system that ranks teams based on their record, their opponent's record, and their opponent's opponent's records.
This year, the four regional sites (teams hosting) are in Allentown, Pennsylvania (Penn State), Bridgeport, Connecticut (Yale), Fargo, North Dakota (North Dakota), and Manchester, New Hampshire (New Hampshire). If any of the hosting teams qualify for the tournament, they will be automatically placed at their regional site. The four regional winners go to the Frozen Four, which is in Tampa, Florida this year.
In the past, the NCAA tournament selection committee has placed teams at certain regional sites in order to increase attendance. However they also have to balance this with keeping bracket integrity as much as possible (i.e. #1 seed plays #16, #2 plays #15, etc.). Conference matchups are also avoided in the first round of the tournament, which causes matchups to occasionally flip.
Teams have to have a .500 or better record in at least 20 games against Division 1 opponents to be eligible for an at-large bid.
The Current Field
So, let's start looking at who would be in the tournament if the season ended today. I'm taking rankings based on Thursday, March 16th. Although anything can happen in the postseason, to make it easier I will use the highest remaining seed in each respective conference tournament.
Automatic Bids: Canisius (Atlantic Hockey, #43), Minnesota (Big Ten, #1), Minnesota State (CCHA, #13), Quinnipiac (ECAC, #2), Boston University (Hockey East, #5), and Denver (NCHC, #3).
Six teams earn automatic bids, which means the next ten highest ranked teams in the Pairwise earn "at-large" bids. Here is the current top-20 in the Pairwise, credit to College Hockey News.
"At-Large" Bids: Michigan, Harvard, St. Cloud State, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan Tech, Western Michigan, Cornell, Merrimack, and Alaska.
We've got our 16 teams. As it stands, the first four teams out would be Michigan State, Notre Dame, North Dakota, and Northeastern.
Putting Together The Regionals
Now we can start ranking the 16 qualifying teams by seeds using the Pairwise rankings. The top four teams are #1 seeds, next four are #2 seeds, and so on.
#1 Seeds (1-4): Minnesota (#1), Quinnipiac (#2), Denver (#3), and Michigan (#4).
#2 Seeds (5-8): Boston University (#5), Harvard (#6), St. Cloud State (#7), and Penn State (#8).
#3 Seeds (9-12): Ohio State (#9), Michigan Tech (#10), Western Michigan (#11), and Cornell (#12).
#4 Seeds (13-16): Minnesota State (#13), Merrimack (#14), Alaska (#15), and Canisius (#16).
Next step, matching up teams to keep tournament integrity. We've got eight games in the first round, placed in four different regionals:
Regional 1: #1 Minnesota vs. #16 Canisius, #8 Penn State vs. #9 Ohio State.
Regional 2: #2 Quinnipiac vs. #15 Alaska, #7 St. Cloud State vs. #10 Michigan Tech.
Regional 3: #3 Denver vs. #14 Merrimack, #6 Harvard vs. #11 Western Michigan.
Regional 4: #4 Michigan vs. #13 Minnesota State, #5 Boston University vs. #12 Cornell.
Placing one seeds first, we can see that Penn State continues to be the thorn in the side of placing regionals. Not only would this be a conference matchup for them, but we need them out of the Minnesota/Quinnipiac regionals for attendance. Luckily, just swapping around the two seeds doesn't cause any other issues around the bracket, plus we get to place St. Cloud in Fargo. Win win.
Regional 1: #1 Minnesota vs. #16 Canisius, #7 St. Cloud State vs. #9 Ohio State.
Regional 2: #2 Quinnipiac vs. #15 Alaska, #6 Harvard vs. #10 Michigan Tech.
Regional 3: #3 Denver vs. #14 Merrimack, #8 Penn State vs. #11 Western Michigan.
Regional 4: #4 Michigan vs. #13 Minnesota State, #5 Boston University vs. #12 Cornell.
When determining regional sites, the committee (usually) recognizes that driving is easier for teams and fans. However, once flying has been determined, it doesn't necessarily matter where that team is flying to. Reminder, there are three east regionals (Allentown, Bridgeport, and Manchester) and just one West regional (Fargo) this year.
The bracket gets easier and easier to place every week. Minnesota/Canisius and St. Cloud State/Ohio State will go to Fargo, Quinnipiac/Alaska and Harvard/Michigan Tech goes to Bridgeport, Denver/Merrimack and Penn State/Western Michigan automatically goes to Allentown, which leaves Michigan/Minnesota State and Boston University/Cornell in Manchester. Attendance should be good to great at all four regionals, plus we keep bracket integrity as close to perfect as possible.
The Final Result
Fargo, ND: #1 Minnesota vs. #16 Canisius, #7 St. Cloud State vs. #9 Ohio State.
Bridgeport, CT: #2 Quinnipiac vs. #15 Alaska, #6 Harvard vs. #10 Michigan Tech.
Allentown, PA: #3 Denver vs. #14 Merrimack, #8 Penn State vs. #11 Western Michigan.
Manchester, NH: #4 Michigan vs. #13 Minnesota State, #5 Boston University vs. #12 Cornell.
This is very close to the bracket from last weekend and should be similar to the official bracket released next Sunday. The only teams to play their way into the NCAAs at this point would be the conference champions. The 15 current at-large teams will not change by next week.
For my Frozen Four picks this week, give me the same four teams I chose in Version 5.0. Minnesota, Quinnipiac, Denver, and Boston University. They've all been playing lights out over the past month and are all built for deep runs this year.
