ECH's Comprehensive Guide to the 2023 Men's NCAA Tournament
by alex berger - march 20, 2023We've made it to the 2023 NCAA Men's Ice Hockey Tournament. The official bracket was released on Sunday and has some fantastic matchups in all of the four regionals.
In this guide, you will find stats (national ranking), storylines, and "X-Factors" for all 16 teams in this year's tournament, along with one reason why each team could win it all. To make it easier to look at matchups, teams are broken down by their regional placements.
Fargo, ND Regional: March 23-25
#1 - Minnesota Golden Gophers
Record: 26-9-1, 19-4-1 conference record
Conference Finish: 1st in Big Ten standings, eliminated in championship game by Michigan
Goals/Game: 4.1 (T-1st in NCAA)
Goals Against/Game: 2.3 (T-8th)
Shots For, Against/Game: 32.8 for, 28.4 against (8th, T-23rd)
Power Play: 24.6% (T-7th)
Penalty Kill: 83.2% (14th)
Top Scorer: Logan Cooley, Freshman, Forward (19 G, 33 A, 52 P in 35 GP)
Top Goalie: Justen Close, Senior (23-9-1, 2.02 GAA, .927 SV% in 33 GP)
Biggest X-Factor: Knies/Snuggerud/Cooley Line
The most talented line in college hockey belongs to Minnesota. The trio has combined for 142 points this season and can score anytime they are on the ice. However, when the line is not clicking it can send waves throughout the rest of the Gophers' lineup. In Minnesota's nine losses this year Knies/Snuggerud/Cooley combined for just 18 points, or two points/game. If you take out the Gophers' 6-5 OT loss to Arizona State on 11/26, that average falls down to 1.5 points/game. That's well below their combined season average of 3.99 points/game. This line has the talent to carry the Gophers to their first title since 2003, but they can also be the team's downfall.
Why They Can Win It All: High-End Talent
The entire team is absolutely stacked this season. The top line speaks for itself, but you also have Jackson LaCombe (8 G, 24 A, 32 P), Bryce Brodzinski (15 G, 10 A, 25 P), Brock Faber (4 G, 19 A, 23 P), Rhett Pitlick (10 G, 12 A, 22 P), and more.
Senior Justen Close (23-9-1, 2.02 GAA, .927 SV% in 33 GP) shook off some early-season struggles to take control of the goaltending position, and Bob Motzko has done a fantastic job at coaching a stacked team to do all of the right things. You can make a compelling argument that this is the most talented top-to-bottom team in college hockey this season. The Gophers were Everything College Hockey's #2 ranked team heading into this season and have not dropped out of the top five all season. It's championship or bust for them this year.
#6 - St. Cloud State Huskies
Record: 24-12-3, 12-9-3 conference record
Conference Finish: 4th in NCHC, won conference championship against Colorado College
Goals/Game: 3.3 (T-10th)
Goals Against/Game: 2.3 (T-8th)
Shots For, Against/Game: 28.3 for, 26.1 against (40th, 10th)
Power Play: 25.3% (6th)
Penalty Kill: 76.4% (54th)
Top Scorer: Jami Krannila, Senior, Forward (21 G, 19 A, 40 P in 39 GP)
Top Goalie: Jaxon Castor, Senior (13-7-1, 2.06 GAA, .920 SV% in 21 GP)
Biggest X-Factor: Injuries
St. Cloud State is one of the most talented teams in the country, but their depth has been tested throughout the season. Senior defenseman Dylan Anhorn is out for the rest of the season with a lower-body injury, captain Spencer Meier has been dealing with an upper-body injury all year, sophomore Josh Luedtke missed eight games to open the year, and other contributors such as Kyler Kupka and Chase Brand have missed multiple games throughout the season.
The Huskies have not been at full strength all season, but are really feeling the absence of Anhorn. St. Cloud is just 7-6-3 since he went down in pre-game warmups before their 2-0 win against Denver on January 21. St. Cloud was 17-6-0 before that point.
The only silver lining to the injury bug is that it's opened the door for some other contributors to stand out. Sophomore defenseman Jack Peart is second in the team lead in assists with 21. Freshman forward Adam Ingram ranks eighth in points for the Huskies with seven goals and 14 assists. Defensive trio Brendan Bushy, Ondrej Trejbal, and Josh Luedtke have combined for 32 assists. Although you want your best playing, getting experience up and down the lineup before tournament time is important.
Why They Can Win It All: Flying Under The Radar
It feels like the Huskies have been underrated throughout the season, especially for a #2 seed in the national tournament. They generated some buzz this past weekend, winning the NCHC Frozen Faceoff with a 3-0 win over Colorado College, but they're still being overlooked by many.
One of their most elite traits is their speed. St. Cloud is one of the fastest teams in college hockey, and I was able to watch them in person this past weekend. They utilize their speed and great passing to spread the ice with wall-to-wall dishes to open up the ice. If a defense overcorrects, they can usually find a seam pass to someone busting down the middle of the ice for a grade-A chance in the slot. Jami Krannila (21 G, 19 A) and Veeti Miettinen (11 G, 23 A) are the pair to watch out for as those kinds of plays develop.
Looking back over the last decade for a minute, the Huskies were one of the most dominant teams from 2015-2019. They had two 30+ win seasons and were a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament three years out of four. In all three of those seasons, however, they lost their opening game, including two games when they were the #1 overall seed in the tournament. It wasn't until the 2020-2021 season, when they were a #2 seed, when they made a run to the NCAA championship game. I'm seeing a lot of similarities in this year's team to their squad in 2021. Sometimes having no expectations is the best thing possible for a team.
#11 - Minnesota State Mavericks
Record: 25-12-1, 16-9-1 conference record
Conference Finish: 1st in CCHA standings, won conference championship against Northern Michigan
Goals/Game: 3.3 (10th in NCAA)
Goals Against/Game: 2.0 (T-2nd)
Shots For, Against/Game: 32.9 for, 21.1 against (6th, 2nd)
Power Play: 27.9% (1st)
Penalty Kill: 82.7% (T-15th)
Top Scorer: David Silye, Junior, Forward (23 G, 16 A, 39 P in 38 GP)
Top Goalie: Keenan Rancier, Sophomore (19-9-1, 1.81 GAA, .916 SV% in 29 GP)
Biggest X-Factor: Power Play
Minnesota-State Mankato leads the country with a 27.9% percentage on the power play. They've scored 43 goals in 154 attempts, including at least one in four of their last five games. The Mavericks like to spread out and take shots from afar, whether it's from the point or the half-wall.
Junior David Silye leads the way with 12 power play goals, tied for second in the country and most among player in the NCAA tournament. He's taken a high leap from last year, jumping from 0.40 points/game last year to 1.03 points/game this year.
Having an elite special teams unit, whether it's the power play or penalty kill, is a huge edge in the national tournament. If a team plays tough, they should expect three or four opportunities on the man advantage a game. For the Mavericks, that's at one goal per game based on percentages.
Why They Can Win It All: Puck Possession
Throughout this article you'll see me mention Corsi, Fenwick, and faceoff percentages. All are important precursors in determining future success, especially for the national tournament. Minnesota-State is the best in the country in terms of Corsi (61.9%) and faceoff percentage (60%), translating to a lot of puck possession and outshooting their opponents by a 1250-802 margin over the course of the season.
According to College Hockey News' KRACH, which tracks a teams ranking in comparison to the likelihood of a win against other teams, Minnesota State is 8th in the country. They have played the 17th toughest schedule in the country, higher than comparable teams such as Quinnipiac (44th), Boston University (20th), and Michigan Tech (24th).
Last year's national championship runner-up team was more talented, yes, but this year's team is not that far of a drop off. Just like St. Cloud, sometimes having lowered expectations allows a team to lose some of their nerves and play at a higher level.
#16 - Canisius Golden Griffins
Record: 20-18-3, 13-10-3 conference record
Conference Finish: 4th in Atlantic Hockey standings, won conference championship against Holy Cross
Goals/Game: 2.8 (T-30th in NCAA)
Goals Against/Game: 2.7 (T-25th)
Shots For, Against/Game: 27.4 for, 32.2 against (T-44th, 47th)
Power Play: 22.6% (15th)
Penalty Kill: 79.7% (37th)
Top Scorer: Keaton Mastrodonato, Senior, Forward (16 G, 20 A, 36 P in 41 GP)
Top Goalie: Jacob Barczewski, Senior (16-14-1, 2.43 GAA, .925 SV% in 31 GP)
Biggest X-Factor: Weathering the Storm
The Golden Griffins rank T-44th in shots per game (27.4) and 47th in shots allowed per game (32.2 against) this season. They're the 15th-worst team in the country in Corsi, dead last among tournament teams.
Now Canisius has to survive against some of the best possession teams in the country in the Fargo regional. First up is Minnesota (#15 in Corsi), who's scoring 4.1 goals per game and is outshooting opponents on an average of 32.8 to 28.4 shots per game this year. If they beat the Golden Gophers, a potential matchup against the #1 puck possession team in the country, Minnesota State, could be next.
If there's any chance for the #16 seed this season, it's hope in senior goaltender Jacob Barczewski. He is riding an eight-game streak of allowing two goals or less, including three shutouts. Barczewski is 6-2-0 in that span. If he can continue his hot postseason play into the NCAA tournament it gives the Golden Griffins a better chance at surviving a barrage of shots.
Why They Can Win It All: Why Not?
This might come off as a little sarcastic, but it can be applied to any of the 16 teams in the tournament this season. Yes, Canisius has to play the #1 overall seed Minnesota in the first round, but it can be argued that every single team will have a tough opening-round matchup.
There is also some recent historical data to back up the last overall seed, one of which happened at a Fargo regional. In 2019, American International beat #1 overall seed St. Cloud State 2-1 at Scheels Arena. The Huskies lost the year prior as the #1 overall seed 4-1 to Air Force.
The Gophers have also suffered a handful of upsets since their last championship in 2002-03. In 2006, they famously lost to Holy Cross 3-2 in OT at the Ralph Engelstad Arena in Grand Forks, ND. That was the first ever #1 overall seed upset since the bracket expanded to 16 teams. In 2013 they were the #2 overall seed and lost to Yale 3-2 OT, who eventually went on to win the NCAA Championship that season. They lost as a #1 seed again in 2017, again by a score of 3-2 to Notre Dame.
Long story short, crazier things have happened. Canisius was good enough to win the Atlantic Hockey postseason tournament and have won seven of their last nine games. The Griffs also had Head Coach Trevor Large on the Pucks in Deep podcast last weekend, who has arguably the most intimidating Elite Prospects photo the world has ever seen from a bench boss. This team should not be overlooked.
Bridgeport, CT Regional: March 24-26
#2 - Quinnipiac Bobcats
Record: 30-4-3, 20-2-0 conference record
Conference Finish: 1st in ECAC standings, eliminated in semifinals by Colgate
Goals/Game: 3.9 (T-3rd in NCAA)
Goals Against/Game: 1.6 (1st)
Shots For, Against/Game: 32.8 for, 21.5 against (T-7th, 3rd)
Power Play: 23.2% (T-13th)
Penalty Kill: 85.3% (6th)
Top Scorer: Collin Graf, Sophomore, Forward (20 G, 35 A, 55 P in 37 GP)
Top Goalie: Yaniv Perets, Sophomore (30-4-3, 1.52 GAA, .929 SV% in 37 GP)
Biggest X-Factor: Yaniv Perets
Quinnipiac is just one of two teams in the country this year with a goalie who can single-handedly lead them to a national championship (the other being Michigan Tech). Sophomore goaltender Yaniv Perets is 30-4-3 with a 1.52 GAA and a .929 save percentage this season. He has the most wins, lowest goals against average, the second-most shutouts, and is tied for the third-highest save percentage among qualified starters this season. In over half of his games this season he has allowed one goal or less (20 of 37).
As good as Peters has been this season, it's not surprising that two of Quinnipiac's four losses the whole year came on an "off" weekend for the goaltender. The Bobcats lost 4-0 to Cornell on January 20th and 3-2 to Colgate on January 21st. That weekend, Peters gave up seven goals on 46 shots for a .847 SV%. The sophomore was even pulled on Friday night and posted a 4.07 GAA in two games. Quinnipiac has the talent to make it to Tampa, but it could all come to a halt with just one off night from one of college hockey's best.
Why They Can Win It All: Defense
There's no doubting that they have talent on offense, but Quinnipiac's real strength this season is on the blue line. The Bobcats lead the country in fewest goals allowed per game (1.6), penalty minutes per game (7.0), and are third in shots allowed per game (21.5). This, paired with the second highest faceoff percentage in college hockey (57.2%), correlates to a ton of puck possession and a strong, clean defensive game.
While researching the last few national champions I found a stat that the last four winners share. In their respective championships, Denver '22, Massachusetts '21, Minnesota-Duluth '19, and Minnesota-Duluth '18 all won the tournament without allowing more than two goals in a single game. Massachusetts and Minnesota-Duluth '19 both won while only allowing three goals the entire tournament. Quinnipiac is the only team in the country to allow fewer than two goals per game this season. The Bobcats have all the tools necessary to continue this streak.
#7 - Harvard Crimson
Record: 24-7-2, 18-4-0 conference record
Conference Finish: 2nd in ECAC standings, eliminated in championship game by Colgate
Goals/Game: 3.8 (T-6th in NCAA)
Goals Against/Game: 2.2 (T-5th)
Shots For, Against/Game: 31.8 for, 27.3 against (T-16th, 17th)
Power Play: 24.1% (9th)
Penalty Kill: 81.5% (T-26th)
Top Scorer: Sean Farrell, Junior, Forward (20 G, 32 A, 52 P in 33 GP)
Top Goalie: Mitchell Gibson, Senior (18-6-2, 2.05 GAA, .925 SV% in 26 GP)
Biggest X-Factor: Farrell/Coronato Duo
Junior Sean Farrell (20 G, 32 A, 52 P) and sophomore Matthew Coronato (20 G, 16 A, 36 P) have combined for 88 points this season, averaging a combined 2.67 points per game. Hobey Baker pairing Matthew Knies and Logan Cooley from Minnesota combined for 93 points, a combined 2.61 points per game mark. The duo is one of the best pairings in college hockey, playing left and right wing on the Crimson's top line.
The only issue is that their center, sophomore Zakary Karpa, has only posted five goals and three assists in 21 games. If he posts just 20 points in that span, this trio is talked about as one of the elite lines of college hockey. Karpa has scored in just two games since early-November (granted, he only played one game in February) and the last time he tallied an assist was on November 11th. If he can somehow match the play of his line-mates, Harvard becomes incredibly dangerous.
Why They Can Win It All: Balance
If you look up and down their lineup, the Crimson rival some of the top teams in the country in terms of their high-end scoring depth. Harvard has four players with 30-or-more points, which matches Minnesota and is near other elite offensive teams like Michigan (six such players) and Boston University (five).
Harvard isn't a one-trick pony either. They rank T-5th in goals against per game, led by senior goaltender Mitchell Gibson who is 18-6-2 with a 2.05 GAA and .925 SV% in 26 games this year. They have great puck possession, 8th in Corsi (shot attempts vs. opponent shot attempts) and 17th in faceoff percentage (52.4%). Their special teams is led by a top-10 power play (24.1%) and supported by a top-30 penalty kill (81.5%). There really isn't a weakness to their game this season.
#9 - Ohio State Buckeyes
Record: 20-15-3 overall, 11-11-2 conference record
Conference Finish: 3rd in Big Ten, eliminated in semifinals by Michigan
Goals/Game: 3.2 (T-14th in NCAA)
Goals Against/Game: 2.5 (T-14th)
Shots For, Against/Game: 36.3 for, 28.7 against (2nd, 25th)
Power Play: 22.0% (17th)
Penalty Kill: 89.5% (1st)
Top Scorer: Stephen Halliday, Freshman, Forward (9 G, 31 A, 40 P in 38 GP)
Top Goalie: Jakub Dobes, Sophomore (20-15-3, 2.33 GAA, .918 SV% in 38 GP)
Biggest X-Factor: Which Offense Will You Get?
For as many games as Ohio State has scored seven or more goals this season (three), they have more where they didn't score a single goal (four). If you take those three games out of the season totals, their goals/game average drops from 3.21 to 2.55. That kind of boom-or-bust offense is not made for postseason play.
As long as the offense balances out, I believe the Buckeyes are deep enough to sustain three goals per game throughout the tournament. They have 14 players with double-digit points, including three defenseman. I wouldn't be surprised if their third line of Matt Cassidy, Patrick Guzzo, and Joe Dulap provide that key scoring depth. All three are upperclassman, and that kind of veteran leadership can shine through in postseason games.
Why They Can Win It All: Special Teams
The Buckeyes have had a lot of success on special teams this season. They have paired a top-20 power play (22%) with the best penalty kill percentage in the country (89.5%). On top of killing off the penalties, Ohio State has scored 10 shorthanded goals this season (the most in the country), almost as many goals as the 16 they've allowed while on the kill.
In their one win against #1 Minnesota and two against #4 Michigan, Ohio State went a combined 7-for-15 on the power play (46.7%) and 13-for-14 on the penalty kill (92.9%) with two shorthanded goals. The Buckeyes have shown that they can beat some of the best teams in the country when the special-teams units are clicking.
#14 - Merrimack Warriors
Record: 23-13-1, 16-8-0 conference record
Conference Finish: 2nd in Hockey East standings, eliminated in championship by Boston University
Goals/Game: 2.9 (T-24th in NCAA)
Goals Against/Game: 2.3 (T-8th)
Shots For, Against/Game: 28.8 for, 27.1 against (38th, 16th)
Power Play: 13.2% (57th)
Penalty Kill: 81.6% (T-24th)
Top Scorer: Alex Jefferies, Junior, Forward (14 G, 27 A, 41 P in 37 GP)
Top Goalie: Hugo Ollas, Sophomore (10-9-0, 2.32 GAA, .915 SV% in 21 GP)
Biggest X-Factor: Which Goalie Do You Ride With?
Merrimack boasts two goalies who have played nearly half of all games this season. Hugo Ollas (10-9-0, 2.32 GAA, .915 SV%) has played in 21 games, while junior Zachary Borgiel (13-4-1, 1.97 GAA, .921 SV%) has played in 19.
Ollas has five shutouts compared to Borgiel's one, but the latter has more wins, a better goals against average, and a better save percentage. The two have alternated starts since February and have gone a combined 7-3-0 in that stretch.
However, you can only pick one goalie to start in the opening-round game. Both have played a lot of minutes, as Merrimack has played in three-straight overtime games, so rest isn't really an issue. Ollas started the last game, which would mean Borgiel is up next in the rotation. Either way, it will be very interesting to watch how the Warriors' coaching staff handles the situation.
Why They Can Win It All: Upperclassman Leadership
Merrimack has six graduate players, six seniors, and five juniors on their team this season. This group of players has led the Warriors through an emotionally difficult season. Assistant coach Josh Ciccoro died at the age of 38 less than a week before the season was set to begin. Despite the adversity, Merrimack started the season with a 13-4-0 record by the mid-season break. The Warriors made it all the way to the Hockey East title game before losing a 2-1 OT heartbreaker to Boston University.
Not only are those 17 players banding the team together, they're also lighting the lamp. Five of their top six scorers are upperclassman, including senior captain Ben Brar (14 G, 12 A, 26 P). That veteran leadership can't be replicated in big games like the NCAA tournament.
If your team didn't make the tournament, the Warriors are a great story to root for this season. Fifth-year coach Scot Borek is ready to lead "Mission Merrimack" to Tampa.
Allentown, PA Regional: March 24-26
#3 - Michigan Wolverines
Record: 24-11-3, 12-10-2 conference record
Conference Finish: 2nd in Big Ten, won conference championship against Minnesota
Goals/Game: 4.1 (T-1st in NCAA)
Goals Against/Game: 3.2 (T-43rd)
Shots For, Against/Game: 34.3 for, 33.8 against (5th, 55th)
Power Play: 22.2% (16th)
Penalty Kill: 77.3% (50th)
Top Scorer: Adam Fantilli, Freshman, Forward (27 G, 34 A, 61 P in 33 GP)
Top Goalie: Erik Portillo, Junior (23-10-2, 3.08 GAA, .907 SV% in 35 GP)
Biggest X-Factor: Inexperience
Although Michigan has a handful of electric underclassmen, led by NCAA points leader Adam Fantilli, they have to deal with all the negatives that come along with it. The Wolverines are the youngest team in college hockey (average age of 21.0) and are second in the country with 17.3 penalty minutes per game. Three Michigan underclassmen rank in the top-18 in the country for individual penalty minutes so far this season. Their penalty kill slots in at 77.3%, good for 13th-worst in the country. There are only 10 upperclassmen on their entire roster this season.
You might be asking, didn't Michigan make the Frozen Four last season? Later in this article I'll show experience as stat to gauge future success for Denver. It's a different situation for the Wolverines. Just 9/20 starters, including just one forward on their top two lines, returned on this year's team.
Fifth-year senior captain Nolan Moyle scored two goals and two assists in Michigan's three NCAA tournament games last season. If I'm head coach Brandon Naurato, I look to him to be the de facto leader this year.
Why They Can Win It All: Adam Fantilli
Although no single player can win an NCAA championship by themselves, if anyone can do it this season, it's Adam Fantilli. The freshman leads the country in points, with 27 goals and 34 assists (61 points) in just 33 games played. He's averaging nearly two points a game (1.85/game) and has tallied a point in 16-of-17 games the second half of the season.
Fantilli has elite speed, great edges, a wicked release, and puts himself in all of the right areas; that is, he can find space on the ice for a one-timer and isn't afraid to crash the crease for a rebound. He reminds me of Trevor Zegras when he played at Boston University in 2019-20.
Although the points will give him the media attention, for my money he's the most talented player in college hockey this season and is (probably?) the front-runner for the Hobey Baker Award. Having a player that can score, or at the very least create a scoring opportunity, every time they touch the puck can always keep a team in a game. Michigan will be a very hard out this season because of him.
#8 - Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 21-15-1 overall, 10-13-1 conference record
Conference Finish: T-5th in Big Ten standings, eliminated in quarterfinals by Ohio State
Goals/Game: 3.2 (T-14th)
Goals Against/Game: 2.81 (T-29th)
Shots For, Against/Game: 39.5 for, 29.4 against (1st, T-31st)
Power Play: 15.2% (48th)
Penalty Kill: 76.5% (52nd)
Top Scorer: Kevin Wall, Senior, Forward (16 G, 13 A, 29 P in 37 GP)
Top Goalie: Liam Souliere, Junior (18-14-1, 2.52 GAA, .913 SV% in 34 GP)
Biggest X-Factor: Recapturing First-Half Offense
It was a night-and-day difference for Penn State this season. They finished the first half of the season with a 17-5-0 record, followed up by a 4-10-1 second half (including a quarterfinals loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament).
One reason could be their offensive output. Penn State scored 3.72 goals per game in the first half of the season and just 2.53 goals per game in the second half. The Nittany Lions scored more than two goals in a game just once since February 4th.
Penn State will need much more scoring depth if they want to make it to Tampa. Just four players have more than 18 points this season, and none have more than 30. Even their top scorer, senior forward Kevin Wall, has just nine points in his last 15 games.
The Nittany Lions also like to throw pucks at the net. They lead the NCAA with 39.5 shots per game this season. The volume is there, it just needs to regress back to the mean and they should start scoring more.
The Nittany Lions are 12-1-1 when scoring four or more goals in a game this season. If they can get their offense clicking again they are a tough team to play against.
Why They Can Win It All: Hosting A Regional, Scoring The First Goal
This may be cheating, but there are two reasons to be optimistic about the Nittany Lions in the tournament.
First off, they are hosting a regional. Although it's not at Pegula, it'll be as close to home-ice advantage as you can get at a neutral event. Penn State should have the most fans attending and all the benefits that come along with it. Although it won't win them a national championship, it will surely be a boost to their chances to reach the Frozen Four.
Secondly, Penn State has done a really good job at scoring first in games this season, which is crucial in postseason play. They lit the lamp first in 25 of their 37 games (68%) this season. This was most evident in an 11-game stretch to open the season. The Nittany Lions were 10-1-0, with wins over Minnesota and Michigan. Penn State scored first in nine of those eleven games, all of which eventually led to a win. In the last two NCAA tournaments the team who scored the first goal eventually won in 19 of 28 games (9-of-15 in 2022, 10-of-13 in 2021).
#10 - Michigan Tech Huskies
Record: 24-10-4 overall, 15-7-4 conference record
Conference Finish: 2nd in CCHA standings, eliminated in semifinals by Northern Michigan
Goals/Game: 2.7 (T-35th)
Goals Against/Game: 2.1 (4th)
Shots For, Against/Game: 31.3 for, 28.0 against (20th, 20th)
Power Play: 13.1% (58th)
Penalty Kill: 86.3% (4th)
Top Scorer: Ryland Mosley, Junior, Forward (12 G, 19 A, 31 P in 38 GP)
Top Goalie: Blake Pietila, Senior (23-10-3, 1.99 GAA, .929 SV% in 36 GP)
Biggest X-Factor: Goal Support
Michigan Tech is one of the best defensive teams in the country, but they still need to score goals to win in the postseason. This was most evident in their 4-0 loss to Northern Michigan in the CCHA semifinals. Usually it's a race to four goals in college hockey, but the Huskies have a great record this season when they score just three in a game (17-1-1 in such games).
The issue? They have trouble putting pucks in the net, averaging just 2.71 goals per game. Just six players have more than five goals this season, and junior forward Ryland Mosley is the only one to reach 30 points. Look for freshman Kyle Kukkonen to continue his hot streak into the tournament. He's scored eight goals in his last seven games.
Why They Can Win It All: Blake Pietila
The Mike Richter award finalist is just one of two goalies this season who could single-handedly lead his team to a national championship (the other being Yaniv Perets for Quinnipiac). In 36 games this season Pietila is 23-10-3 with a 1.99 GAA, and .929 save percentage. He leads the country with 10 shutouts.
Blake Pietila has five such games this season with 35 or more saves and has been the last line of defense on a stingy team. He's propelled the Huskies to an elite penalty kill (86.3%) and has allowed just 70 goals all season.
I'll use this stat again, as I believe it shows just how much goaltending is valued in the NCAA tournament. The last four NCAA champions (Denver '22, Massachusetts '21, Minnesota-Duluth '19, and Minnesota-Duluth '18) all won the tournament without allowing more than two goals in a single game. Massachusetts and Minnesota-Duluth '19 both won while only allowing three goals the entire tournament. Pietila is one of few elite goalies this season who can match those numbers.
#15 - Colgate Raiders
Record: 19-15-5, 11-8-3 conference record
Conference Finish: 5th in ECAC standings, won conference championship against Harvard
Goals/Game: 2.9 (T-24th in NCAA)
Goals Against/Game: 2.5 (T-14th)
Shots For, Against/Game: 29.3 for, 28.9 against (T-32nd, T-26th)
Power Play: 21.3% (19th)
Penalty Kill: 84.0% (12th)
Top Scorer: Alex Young, Junior, Forward (21 G, 18 A, 39 P in 39 GP)
Top Goalie: Carter Gylander, Junior (19-4-5, 2.31 GAA, .918 SV% in 38 GP)
Biggest X-Factor: Team Chemistry
Colgate is almost an inverse of St. Cloud State this season, as they've mostly avoided the injury bug for a majority of the season. 10 players have played in all 39 games for the Raiders this season, and another four have played in at least 37.
No real stat jumps off the page for the Raiders this season. They're top-20 in both power play (21.3%, 19th) and penalty kill (84.0%, 12th) and play a good defensive game (2.5 goals against/game, T-14th). However, they're middle of the pack in scoring (2.9 goals/game, T-24th) and puck possession (49.4% Corsi, 34th).
I think the real x-factor for Colgate this season is how well the team plays with each other. A group of 10-14 players who have played with each other for a majority of the season will know the intangibles of their line-mates like the back of their hand. Finding a backdoor pass or springing a clean breakout can be all the difference in a close postseason game.
Why They Can Win It All: Momentum
Colgate is getting hot at just the right time. Despite being the #5 seed in the ECAC tournament, they beat Dartmouth, St. Lawrence, Quinnipiac, and Harvard to win their first postseason championship since 1990.
The Raiders have lost just one game since February 10 and are 6-1-3 in that stretch. They won four-straight one-goal games in the ECAC tournament, two of which went to overtime. They are battle tested in preparation for the NCAAs this season.
Only six teams in the tournament this season were able to raise a trophy last weekend. Colgate is playing some of their best hockey in decades and has great momentum heading into their matchup against #3 overall seed Michigan. The Raiders haven't won an NCAA game since their last ECAC championship. This is as good a time as any to change that stat.
Manchester, NH Regional: March 23-25
#4 - Denver Pioneers
Record: 30-9-0, 19-5-0 conference record
Conference Finish: 1st in NCHC standings, eliminated in semifinals by Colorado College
Goals/Game: 3.8 (T-6th in NCAA)
Goals Against/Game: 2.2 (T-5th)
Shots For, Against/Game: 32.2 for, 25.3 against (13th, 8th)
Power Play: 26.6 (3rd)
Penalty Kill: 78% (45th)
Top Scorer: Massimo Rizzo, Sophomore, Forward (17 G, 29 A, 46 P in 37 GP)
Top Goalie: Magnus Chrona, Senior (22-8-0, 2.19 GAA, .915 SV% in 31 GP)
Biggest X-Factor: Get The Lead Before The Third
The Denver Pioneers have been nearly unbeatable if they have the lead after two periods of play this season. In 25 such games they are 24-1-0, with the lone loss coming back on November 4th. A big reason is scoring first (22-0-0 record in such games) and limiting goals allowed in the first period (only 25 all season).
Inversely, in eight of the Pioneers nine losses this season they were trailing after the second period. In all nine losses they allowed the first goal. Gaining and maintaining a lead is important for any team, but the Pioneers have doubled down on it this season.
Why They Can Win It All: Experience
Can the Pioneers go back-to-back? Before Minnesota-Duluth won in 2018-19 the last team to accomplish the feat was... Denver, in 2004-05. Over the last decade it's been shown how crucial it is to build, or match, NCAA tournament experience from year to year. From 2016-2021 the national champion played in the Frozen Four in the previous tournament.. Ironically, it was Denver who broke that streak last season.
Regardless, there wasn't a whole lot of turnover for the Pioneers from last season. 13 of the 20 starters from last year's national championship game are still on the roster, including team leaders in Massimo Rizzo, Carter Mazur, Mike Benning, Justin Lee, and Magnus Chrona. The first four have played in 37 of a possible 39 games together this season. The last, a senior goaltender, has played in 113 total games for the Pioneers in his career. A main core of this team climbed the mountaintop last season, so they know the struggles that go into hanging a banner. Let's see if they can be the first team in college hockey to hang #10.
#5 - Boston University Terriers
Record: 27-10-0, 18-6-0 conference record
Conference Finish: 1st in Hockey East standings, won conference championship against Merrimack
Goals/Game: 3.9 (T-3rd in NCAA)
Goals Against/Game: 2.6 (T-17th)
Shots For, Against/Game: 34.8 for, 28.2 against (4th, 21st)
Power Play: 20.4% (26th)
Penalty Kill: 80.4% (T-34th)
Top Scorer: Lane Hutson, Freshman, Defenseman (14 G, 33 A, 47 P in 36 GP)
Top Goalie: Drew Commesso, Junior (22-7-0, 2.51 GAA, .912 SV% in 31 GP)
Biggest X-Factor: Lane Hutson
The nation's top point-scoring defenseman, freshman Lane Hutson has scored 14 goals and 33 assists for 47 points in 36 games played this season, leading the Terriers in points as well. Hutson was named the Hockey East Rookie of the Year and a Top-10 finalist for the Hobey Baker Award (the only defenseman nominated).
Despite being just 5'9" and 155 pounds, Hutson has found a consistent spot on the second defensive pairing and can be a one-man breakout at times. And when the Terriers have the puck, it's almost like having another forward on the ice. He's not afraid to jump up in the play and drive to the net. Hutson scored the game-winning goal in the Hockey East championship, so he's shown that he can deliver in the big moments.
For a lot of these teams I've chosen team stats or storylines for this category, but Hutson is a true x-factor in terms of how he affects the play on the ice. Having that potential scoring edge can be all the difference in close postseason games.
Why They Can Win It All: Consistency
A near-elite offense (3.9 goals/game, T-3rd in the country) and an above-average defense (2.6 goals against/game, T-17th) has meant great consistency for Boston University over the course of the season. They are cumulatively outscoring opponents in each period this year: 43-30 in the 1st, 47-35 in the 2nd, 50-31 in the 3rd, and 5-2 in OT. The Terriers are also outshooting their opponents in every period, with a season total of 1288-1043 for-against.
The Terriers have lost back-to-back games just once this season, a four-game skid in mid-February, and have won every single game since then. According to Corsi, which tracks the percentage of shot attempts for/against, they are the 12th-best team in the country at 54.3%.
BU is consistent, has great depth, and is one of the better possession teams in the country, all keys that could translate to a deep tournament run this season.
#12 - Western Michigan Broncos
Record: 23-14-1 overall, 15-8-1 conference record
Conference Finish: 2nd in NCHC standings, eliminated in quarterfinals by Colorado College
Goals/Game: 3.9 (T-3rd in NCAA)
Goals Against/Game: 2.6 (T-17th)
Shots For, Against/Game: 31.4 for, 26.0 against (19th, 9th)
Power Play: 23.8% (11th)
Penalty Kill: 75.9% (57th)
Top Scorer: Ryan McAllister, Forward, Freshman (13 G, 35 A, 48 P in 38 GP)
Top Goalie: Cameron Rowe, Junior (22-13-1, 2.45 GAA, .907 SV% in 37 GP)
Biggest X-Factor: Jason Polin
Although he is not the highest scorer on his team, Polin leads both his team and the country in goals scored this season with 29. That includes five hat tricks over a 13-game span. Polin is a literal game changer. Western Michigan is 13-2-0 in games in which Polin scores a goal this season.
Western Michigan's top line of Ryan McAllister, Max Sasson, and Polin have combined for 136 points this season (57 goals and 79 assists). That's up there against some of the best lines of the country, including Knies/Snuggerud Cooley at Minnesota (142 points).
Why They Can Win It All: Offense
The top line is the prime example of a team that has scoring depth both up front and on the blue line. 15 players have double-digit points this season, eight of which have 20 or more. The Broncos have scored 3.9 goals/game this season, tied for third-best in the country. Western Michigan is 21-4-0 when they score four goals or more in a game, and just 2-10-1 when they don't.
Last season, Western Michigan scored just two total goals in their two tournament games and eventually lost to Minnesota in the regional final (they were shutout 3-0). They will need to score much more this time around if they want to win their first ever national championship.
#13 - Cornell Big Red
Record: 20-10-2, 15-6-1 conference record
Conference Finish: 3rd in ECAC standings, eliminated in semifinals by Harvard
Goals/Game: 3.4 (T-8th in NCAA)
Goals Against/Game: 2.0 (T-2nd)
Shots For, Against/Game: 29.1 for, 20.4 against (T-35th, 1st)
Power Play: 25.9% (4th)
Penalty Kill: 81.9% (T-20th)
Top Scorer: Gabriel Seger, Junior, Forward (7 G, 22 A, 29 P in 28 GP)
Top Goalie: Ian Shane, Sophomore (19-9-1, 1.76 GAA, .913 SV% in 31 GP)
Biggest X-Factor: Depth Scoring
Cornell doesn't have a superstar, but their team is deep in terms of who can put pucks in the net. The Big Red have 14 players with double-digit points this season and 13 with five-or-more goals. That's tough for an opponent to game plan against, as there's no one player to try and shut down. That trend continues in clutch time. 16 different players have a game-winning goal and none have more than two.
If there's one trio of players that a team could key in on, it could be forwards Gabriel Seger, Max Andreev, and Dalton Bancroft. They've combined for 15 of the Big Red's 28 power play goals this season. Cornell ranks 4th in the country in power play percentage (25.9%). Shutting down Seger/Andreev/Bancroft on the man advantage is key to winning the special-teams battle.
Why They Can Win It All: Limiting Shots on Goal
Cornell leads the country in shot attempts against per game, with an average of 20.4 faced this season. Lower shots faced means that they have limited penalties (8.8 minutes/game, T-11th in the NCAA) and allowed fewer goals (2.0/game, T-2nd). They're one of, if not the, best defense in the country.
In terms of Corsi, the Big Red rank 4th with a 57.3% share in shots taken vs. allowed. They also rank T-4th in faceoff percentage at 54.5%. Although they don't have four lines of elite offense, Cornell has a ton of puck possession and likes to put pucks in deep and crash the net. Scrappy, defensive teams are rewarded in the postseason and match up well against speedy, high-scoring opponents.
