Previewing the NCAA Bracket: Version 3.0
by alex berger - FEb 20, 2023 *Note - The Pairwise rankings mentioned are from Sunday, February 19*
Some conferences are down to just one weekend of regular-season play this season. With so little to jump in the Pairwise, teams on the bubble may need to win their conference's postseason tournament to make it to the NCAAs.
From last week's bracket, Michigan State is out and Omaha is in. The other big change is that Boston University dropped from a #1 seed to a #3 seed after being swept by Merrimack.
How The NCAA Tournament Field Is Determined
16 teams qualify for the NCAA tournament every year. Automatic bids are given to the conference postseason champions, and the other "at large" bids are calculated through the Pairwise. That is, long-story short, a mathematical system that ranks teams based on their record, their opponent's record, and their opponent's opponent's records.
This year, the four regional sites (teams hosting) are in Allentown, Pennsylvania (Penn State), Bridgeport, Connecticut (Yale), Fargo, North Dakota (North Dakota), and Manchester, New Hampshire (New Hampshire). If any of the hosting teams qualify for the tournament, they will be automatically placed at their regional site. The four regional winners go to the Frozen Four, which is in Tampa, Florida this year.
In the past, the NCAA tournament selection committee has placed teams at certain regional sites in order to increase attendance. However they also have to balance this with keeping bracket integrity as much as possible (i.e. #1 seed plays #16, #2 plays #15, etc.). Conference matchups are also avoided in the first round of the tournament, which causes matchups to occasionally flip.
Teams have to have a .500 or better record in at least 20 games against Division 1 opponents to be eligible for an at-large bid. This could affect a few teams this season (Notre Dame: #16 in Pairwise, 14-14-4 record, and Michigan State: #18 in Pairwise, 16-16-2 record).
The Current Field
So, let's start looking at who would be in the tournament if the season ended today. I'm taking rankings based on Sunday, February 19. Although anything can happen in the postseason, to make it easier I will use who is currently leading their respective conferences as champions.
Automatic Bids: RIT (Atlantic Hockey, #22), Minnesota (Big Ten, #1), Minnesota State (CCHA, #12), Quinnipiac (ECAC, #2), Northeastern (Hockey East, #14), and Denver (NCHC, #4).
Six teams earn automatic bids, which means the next ten highest ranked teams in the Pairwise earn "at-large" bids. Here is the current top-20 in the Pairwise, credit to College Hockey News.
"At-Large" Bids: Michigan, St. Cloud State, Western Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State, Boston University, Harvard, Michigan Tech, Omaha, and Cornell.
We've got our 16 teams. As it stands, the first four teams out would be Notre Dame, Alaska, Michigan State, and Merrimack.
Putting Together The Regionals
Now we can start ranking the 16 qualifying teams by seeds using the Pairwise rankings. The top four teams are #1 seeds, next four are #2 seeds, and so on.
#1 Seeds (1-4): #1 Minnesota, #2 Quinnipiac, #3 Michigan, and #4 Denver
#2 Seeds (5-8): #5 St. Cloud State, #6 Western Michigan, #7 Penn State, and #8 Ohio State
#3 Seeds (9-12): #9 Boston University, #10 Harvard, #11 Michigan Tech, and #12 Minnesota State
#4 Seeds (13-16): #13 Omaha, #14 Northeastern, #15 Cornell, and #16 RIT
Next step, matching up teams to keep tournament integrity. We've got eight games in the first round, placed in four different regionals:
Regional 1: #1 Minnesota vs. #16 RIT, #8 Ohio State vs. #9 Boston University
Regional 2: #2 Quinnipiac vs. #15 Cornell, #7 Penn State vs. #10 Harvard
Regional 3: #3 Michigan vs. #14 Northeastern, #6 Western Michigan vs. #11 Michigan Tech
Regional 4: #4 Denver vs. #13 Omaha, #5 St. Cloud State vs. #12 Minnesota State
There are two issues with the current bracket. Both Quinnipiac/Cornell and Denver/Omaha are conference matchups. To keep bracket integrity as close as possible within the #4 seeds, I am going to do some shuffling between Omaha, Northeastern, and Cornell. Although Denver does get a quote-on-quote "advantage," this was the one way to keep the #1/#16 integrity while also giving the #2 and #3 seeds similar integrity. Here's the bracket I come up with.
Regional 1: #1 Minnesota vs. #16 RIT, #8 Ohio State vs. #9 Boston University
Regional 2: #2 Quinnipiac vs. #14 Northeastern, #7 Penn State vs. #10 Harvard
Regional 3: #3 Michigan vs. #13 Omaha, #6 Western Michigan vs. #11 Michigan Tech
Regional 4: #4 Denver vs. #15 Cornell, #5 St. Cloud State vs. #12 Minnesota State
When determining regional sites, the committee (usually) recognizes that driving is easier for teams and fans. However, once flying has been determined, it doesn't necessarily matter where that team is flying to. Reminder, there are three east regionals (Allentown, Bridgeport, and Manchester) and just one west regional (Fargo) this year.
The easiest region to place is Quinnipiac/Northeastern and Penn State/Harvard. They go to Allentown as Penn State is the host team there. That is unfortunate for Quinnipiac as Bridgeport, CT is just 30 minutes away from their campus.
Next, I'll place Minnesota/RIT and Ohio State/Boston University in Fargo. The Gophers are the #1 seed overall, so they get the closest regional for their own travel purposes and so their fans can make the drive up from Minneapolis.
The last two regionals are tough to place, as seven of the eight remaining teams are "western." I'll put Denver/Cornell and St. Cloud State/Minnesota State in Bridgeport to offset the #4/#15 matchup advantage. Cornell will pretty much be the home team by drawing the most fans at this regional, as it's just over a four hour drive for the Big Red and a flight for every other team.
And that leaves Michigan/Omaha and Western Michigan/Michigan Tech in Manchester. It's a shame this regional can't be hosted in Detroit.
- The Final Result
Fargo, ND: #1 Minnesota vs. #16 RIT, #8 Ohio State vs. #9 Boston University
Allentown, PA: #2 Quinnipiac vs. #14 Northeastern, #7 Penn State vs. #10 Harvard
Manchester, NH: #3 Michigan vs. #13 Omaha, #6 Western Michigan vs. #11 Michigan Tech
Bridgeport, CT: #4 Denver vs. #15 Cornell, #5 St. Cloud State vs. #12 Minnesota State
This is the type of bracket that would trouble the tournament committee. Attendance has been the biggest concern over the past decade, and I would argue that this bracket would not draw a whole lot of fans overall. Regardless, there would be some pretty fantastic opening-round games and potential regional finals this time around. If I had to choose a Frozen Four out of this iteration, give me Minnesota, Quinnipiac, Western Michigan, and Denver.
