Previewing the NCAA Bracket: Version 2.0
Written by alex berger - february 17, 2023*Note - The pairwise rankings mentioned are from Sunday, February 12*
We've had some movement in the projected NCAA Tournament from a few weeks ago, with Omaha and Notre Dame being replaced by Northeastern and Michigan State. However, 14 of the teams have kept their place. This will be the case for the next few weeks as the teams on the bubble (Pairwise rankings #12-#18) fight amongst each other for those last few spots.
As a fan of a team who's not going to make the tournament, all I hope for now is some great matchups and storylines. I'd say we have that in this week's projected bracket.
How The NCAA Tournament Field Is Determined
16 teams qualify for the NCAA tournament every year. Automatic bids are given to the conference postseason champions, and the other "at large" bids are calculated through the Pairwise. That is, long-story short, a mathematical system that ranks teams based on their record, their opponent's record, and their opponent's opponent's records.
This year, the four regional sites (teams hosting) are in Allentown, Pennsylvania (Penn State), Bridgeport, Connecticut (Yale), Fargo, North Dakota (North Dakota), and Manchester, New Hampshire (New Hampshire). If any of the hosting teams qualify for the tournament, they will be automatically placed at their regional site. The four regional winners go to the Frozen Four, which is in Tampa, Florida this year.
In the past, the NCAA tournament selection committee has placed teams at certain regional sites in order to increase attendance. However they also have to balance this with keeping bracket integrity as much as possible (i.e. #1 seed plays #16, #2 plays #15, etc.). Conference matchups are also avoided in the first round of the tournament, which causes matchups to occasionally flip.
Teams have to have a .500 or better record in at least 20 games against Division 1 opponents to be eligible for an at-large bid. This could affect a few teams this season (Michigan State: #14 in Pairwise, 15-15-2 and Notre Dame: #16 in Pairwise, 14-14-4).
The Current Field
So, let's start looking at who would be in the tournament if the season ended today. I'm taking rankings based on Sunday, February 12. Although anything can happen in the postseason, to make it easier I will use who is currently leading their respective conferences as champions.
Automatic Bids: RIT (#20), Minnesota (#1), Michigan Tech (#12), Quinnipiac (#2), Boston University (#4), and Denver (#5).
Six teams earn automatic bids, which means the next ten highest ranked teams in the Pairwise earn "at-large" bids. Here is the current top-20 in the Pairwise, credit to College Hockey News.
"At-Large" Bids: Michigan, Penn State, St. Cloud State, Western Michigan, Ohio State, Cornell, Harvard, Minnesota State, Michigan State, Northeastern
We've got our 16 teams. As it stands, the first four teams out would be Notre Dame, Omaha, Connecticut, and Alaska.
Putting Together The Regionals
Now we can start ranking the 16 qualifying teams by seeds using the Pairwise rankings. The top four teams are #1 seeds, next four are #2 seeds, and so on.
#1 Seeds (1-4): #1 Minnesota, #2 Quinnipiac, #3 Michigan, and #4 Boston University.
#2 Seeds (5-8): #5 Denver, #6 Penn State, #7 St. Cloud State, and #8 Western Michigan.
#3 Seeds (9-12): #9 Ohio State, #10 Cornell, #11 Harvard, and #12 Michigan Tech.
#4 Seeds (13-16): #13 Minnesota State, #14 Michigan State, #15 Northeastern, and #16 RIT.
Next step, matching up teams to keep tournament integrity. We've got eight games in the first round, placed in four different regionals:
Regional 1: #1 Minnesota vs. #16 RIT, #8 Western Michigan vs. #9 Ohio State.
Regional 2: #2 Quinnipiac vs. #15 Northeastern, #7 St. Cloud State vs. #10 Cornell
Regional 3: #3 Michigan vs. #14 Michigan State, #6 Penn State vs. #11 Harvard
Regional 4: #4 Boston University vs. #13 Minnesota State, #5 Denver vs. #12 Michigan Tech
We've got just one conference matchup with this current bracket, #3 Michigan vs. #14 Michigan State. To fix this, I'm going to swap the Spartans with #13 Minnesota State. The Mavericks won't be going to Fargo, so it's a flight either way for them. Plus, I want to keep #15 Northeastern out east. With that swap, here's the bracket we're going with.
Regional 1: #1 Minnesota vs. #16 RIT, #8 Western Michigan vs. #9 Ohio State.
Regional 2: #2 Quinnipiac vs. #15 Northeastern, #7 St. Cloud State vs. #10 Cornell
Regional 3: #3 Michigan vs. #13 Minnesota State, #6 Penn State vs. #11 Harvard
Regional 4: #4 Boston University vs. #14 Michigan State, #5 Denver vs. #12 Michigan Tech
When determining regional sites, the committee (usually) recognizes that driving is easier for teams and fans. However, once flying has been determined, it doesn't necessarily matter where that team is flying to. Reminder, there are three east regionals (Allentown, Bridgeport, and Manchester) and just one west regional (Fargo) this year.
The easiest region to place is Michigan/Minnesota State and Penn State/Harvard, as Penn State is automatically placed in Allentown. Attendance should be pretty good with the host team making the regional and Michigan being only eight hours away.
Next, I'll place Minnesota/RIT and Western Michigan/Ohio State in Fargo. It's a drive for the Golden Gophers and it's an easy trip for the fans. As the #1 overall seed you earn the advantage of the closest regional.
Quinnipiac also gets the advantage of a close regional, as I'll place them in Bridgeport. Quinnipiac/Northeastern and St. Cloud/Cornell should be a great atmosphere, as three of the four teams are within four hours of the regional.
To wrap it up, Boston University/Michigan State and Denver/Michigan Tech will be placed in Manchester. This will most likely be the least-attended regional of the four, but it won't be as bad as some regionals in the past. BU is less than an hour away, so it's an easy trip for the team and the fans.
The Final Result
Fargo, N.D.: #1 Minnesota vs. #16 RIT, #8 Western Michigan vs. #9 Ohio State.
Bridgeport, CT: #2 Quinnipiac vs. #15 Northeastern, #7 St. Cloud State vs. #10 Cornell
Allentown, PA: #3 Michigan vs. #13 Minnesota State, #6 Penn State vs. #11 Harvard
Manchester, NH: #4 Boston University vs. #14 Michigan State, #5 Denver vs. #12 Michigan Tech
Not a whole lot of changes from a few weeks ago, but you can start to see a pattern in terms of where a few teams are most likely going to end up. Out of these four regionals, give me Minnesota, Quinnipiac, Penn State, and Denver to go on to the Frozen Four in Tampa, Florida.
