ECH Frozen Four 2024 Preview
BY ALEX BERGER - APRIL 11, 2024Another season has come and gone, and there are just three games left to determine this year's NCAA Champion. This weekend #1 Boston College, #2 Boston University, #3 Denver, and #10 Michigan will play at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, Minnesota for the chance to raise a trophy and a banner next October.
The season of the blue bloods continues, as the four teams featured this weekend have combined for 28 national championships and 96 Frozen Four appearances (including this season). Outside of Denver, the other three teams are looking to end their long title droughts. The Pioneers and Michigan are each looking to be the first program in history to win ten national championships.
For many neutral fans, a potential fifth game of the season between Boston College and Boston University in the title game would be the icing on the cake for what's been a great year of college hockey. The rivals have been the top two teams for most of the year, and met just a few weeks ago for the Hockey East championship.
In this preview you'll find updated stats on all four teams, how they got to the Frozen Four, a recap of analysis from our ECH NCAA Tournament Preview (players to know, 'X Factors,' etc.), and why each team can and can't win it all this weekend.
#1 - Boston College Eagles
Searching Sixth Championship, Last in 2012
Record: 33-5-1 Overall, 20-3-1 in Conference Play
Conference Finish: 1st in Regular Season, 1st in Postseason
Goals/Game: 4.59/game (2nd in NCAA)
Goals Against/Game: 2.23/game (T-4th)
Shots For, Against/Game: 32.08 for, 28.56 against (T-13th, 23rd)
Power Play: 29.9% (2nd)
Penalty Kill: 88.6% (1st)
Top Scorer: Will Smith, Freshman, Forward; 23 G - 46 A - 69 P
Top Goalie: Jacob Fowler, Freshman; 31-5-1, 2.20 GAA, .924 SV%, and 2 SO
Three Players to Know:
- Cutter Gauthier, So., Forward; 37 G - 27 A - 64 P
The sophomore leads the NCAA in goals (37) and game-winning goals (10). Boston College is 25-0-0 this season when Gauthier scores.
- Jacob Fowler, Fr., Goaltender; 31-5-1, 2.20 GAA, .924 SV%, 2 SO
Often overlooked when talking about talented BC freshmen this season is Fowler. The Mike Richter finalist has given up two or fewer goals in 12 of 20 games since January 1st.
- Eamon Powell, Sr., Defenseman; 5 G - 33 A - 38 P, 44 Shot Blocks
The Boston College captain plays much bigger than his size (5'11", 175 lbs.) as a top-two defenseman. He's one of four Eagles with 40+ blocked shots this season.
How They Got Here: Offensive Talent, Big Responses
- 6-1 Win Against #16 Michigan Tech
Almost every year the country's top team gets a bit of a scare in the first game of the tournament. It happened last year with Minnesota and in 2021 to Minnesota State. This season, Michigan Tech responded to a goal 36 seconds in from Cutter Gauthier with a shorthanded tally of their own from Max Koskipirtti, keeping the game tied 1-1 heading into the first intermission. Then in the second, the Eagles lost top forward Gabe Perreault to a 'Contact to the Head' game misconduct.
Up 2-1 at that point, Boston College's top-ranked penalty kill weathered the storm and killed off the major penalty. They kept the momentum up in the third period, scoring twice in under two minutes before getting a major power play of their own. Ryan Leonard and Gauthier each added their second of the game, and the Eagles pulled away for a 6-1 win.
All of the usual suspects found their way onto the scoresheet in the win. Oskar Jellvik, Eamon Powell, and Jack Malone all joined Leonard and Gauthier with a multi-point game while NCAA point-leader Will Smith added an assist.
- 5-4 OT Win Against #9 Quinnipiac
It was a much different story for Boston College on Sunday night. Facing off against the defending national champions, Quinnipiac controlled play for much of the game. After 25 combined shots on goal in a scoreless first period, the action exploded in the second. The Bobcats raced out to a 2-0 lead with two goals in 114 seconds. But Boston College's power play capitalized at the right time, scoring twice in the second to stem to momentum. Ryan Leonard was the driver 5-on-4, and he tied the game at 3-3 with a quick wraparound late in the period.
But once again, Quinnipiac would jump out to a lead. With just seconds remaining on a power play of their own to start the third, Jacob Quillan would score on a set play 16 seconds into the period to give the Bobcats a 4-3 lead. Quillan, the overtime hero of last year's NCAA Title game, scored twice in the game. Things tightened up after that, as the team's combined for just ten more shots in the final frame. But with just 4:34 remaining, Boston College would find the equalizer. Freshman defenseman Aram Minnetian beat QU's Vinny Duplessis from the high slot for just his third goal of the season, sending the game to overtime tied 4-4.
The overtime was Quinnipiac's third-straight in the NCAA Tournament after a 3-2 win over Wisconsin in the regional semifinals. But despite the momentum, the Bobcats wouldn't even get a Grade-A chance. After a tipped shot and scramble in front, graduate senior forward Jack Malone buried the loose puck just three minutes into overtime to send Boston College back to the Frozen Four.
Biggest X-Factor: Gabe Perreault/Will Smith/Ryan Leonard Line
Similar to last year's #1 team, Minnesota, one of the nation's top lines once again plays for the top team. Freshmen Gabe Perreault, Will Smith, and Ryan Leonard continued their momentum from last season on the U.S. Under-18 Team, and have paced the country with a combined 72 goals - 113 assists - 185 points in 39 games (a combined 4.74 points/game between the trio) in their first season in college hockey. Smith is the current NCAA leader in both assists (46) and points (69).
A big question mark heading into the postseason was the health of Perreault, who posted 14 points in seven games before suffering an upper-body injury in late February. Since he returned, however, the left winger has been on fire. He posted three goals and seven point points in the last two games of the Hockey East tournament, and seems to be back to full strength. Boston College has plenty of firepower to put into the top six -- including Gauthier and Oskar Jellvik (13-29-42 points) -- and the Eagles' forward core plays much better with Perreault in it. They are one of the most dangerous in the country at full strength.
Why They Can Win It All: Well-Rounded Attack
Boston College gets a lot of attention for their offensive firepower and first round draft picks, but the reason they are the top team in the country is because of how well rounded they are. They can score, yes (4.6 goals/game, 2nd in the NCAA), but they also have a top-five defense (2.23 goals against/game, T-4th), power play (29.9%, 2nd), and penalty kill (88.6%, 1st).
Last season's national champion -- Quinnipiac -- was top-five in three of those marks. The year before that Denver was top-ten in both goals for and against/game. Well-rounded, talented teams tend to go far in the NCAA's. Boston College has those pieces and are a deserving #1 overall seed.
The Eagles have also proven that they can play against the best teams in college hockey. They're 4-1 against #2 Boston University this year, swept #4 Michigan State, and beat #9 Quinnipiac to open the season. BC has lost just five games all season and is undefeated since February 5th.
Why They Can't Win It All: #1 Overall Curse?
For as good as Boston College has been, they have to go up against a historical trend of being the top seed in the NCAA Tournament. The #1 seed has won it all just three times in the last 20 years (15%). Interestingly enough, all three of those programs are in this year's Frozen Four: Denver (2017), Boston College (2012), and Boston University (2009).
Granted, the #1 overall seed is usually still around at this time of year. Another three times in that same span the top seed has made it to the championship game but lost: Minnesota (2023), Minnesota (2014), and Quinnipiac (2013).
Nothing is guaranteed in the NCAA Tournament, even if you're #1. More often than not, the top four teams in the country are playing this time of year. This season's Frozen Four features the country's top three teams, and all four are in the top ten. Although BC should (seemingly) have an advantage this weekend, the games will be closer than you'd think.
#2 - Boston University Terriers
Searching Sixth Championship, Last in 2009
Record: 28-9-2 Overall, 18-4-2 in Conference Play
Conference Finish: 2nd in Regular Season, 2nd in Postseason
Goals/Game: 4.15/game (T-3rd in NCAA)
Goals Against/Game: 2.44/game (T-6th)
Shots For, Against/Game: 33.00 for, 28.03 against (9th, 17th)
Power Play: 28.1% (3rd)
Penalty Kill: 79.1% (36th)
Top Scorer: Macklin Celebrini, Freshman, Forward; 32 G - 32 A - 64 P
Top Goalie: Mathieu Caron, Junior; 28-9-2, 2.37 GAA, .915 SV%, and 2 SO
Three Players to Know:
- Quinn Hutson, Sophomore, Forward; 18 G - 18 A - 36 P
Quinn and Lane are one of three pairs of brothers on Boston University this year, and both can find the back of the net. Quinn leads his brother with 18 goals, which only trail Macklin Celebrini for the team lead.
- Tom Willander, Freshman, Defenseman; 4 G - 21 A - 25 P
The first-round pick has found his stride since a great showing at this year's World Junior's. He has 17 points in the 22 games since then, including four multi-point games.
- Cade Webber, Senior, Defenseman; 0 G - 6 A - 6 P
The 6'7" defenseman has more shot blocks this season (133) than any other player in college hockey, leading the Terriers to 577 total on the year.
How They Got Here: Pair of 6-3 Wins
- 6-3 Win Against #15 RIT
Although they had the same score, Boston University's two wins in the regional round came in very different ways. In their opening game against RIT, the Terriers got multiple breakaway saves early from goaltender Mathieu Caron, keeping the game tied 0-0 after an early push from the Tigers. Star sophomore Lane Hutson opened the scoring for BU with a highlight-reel goal, and Riley Greene added a second minutes later to give Boston University a 2-0 lead.
But RIT kept the game close, beginning with a power play goal late in the first period by Elijah Gonslaves. Then after falling down 3-1, Gianfranco Cassaro scored on the breakaway just seconds out of the penalty box to cut the lead to one once again.
After controlling play through most of the second period, Boston University's high-end talent struck for a huge goal to regain the momentum. Macklin Celebrini got the puck on a beautiful 3-on-2 transition play, tipping it past Tommy Scarfone to make it 4-2 Terriers.
Jack Harvey scored the dagger 90 seconds into the third, and a late goal from both teams meant a final score of 6-3.
- 6-3 Win Against #7 Minnesota
It was a completely different game in the regional final against Minnesota. Despite both teams getting chances early, the Gophers beat Caron twice with shots from the circles to take a 2-0 lead. Minnestoa's top line of Mason Nevers, Jaxon Nelson, and Bryce Brodzinski were the best trio on the ice for most of the game, and the latter two each scored in the first.
Just when it looked like Minnesota was pulling away for an upset, Boston University responded with one of the biggest goals of the weekend. After a draw at center ice Quinn Hutson caused a turnover off a clear, skated around a defenseman, and shoveled the puck to the net. It somehow got through the pads of Justen Close and into the net, and the Terriers cut the lead to 2-1 just 14 seconds later.
Once again, Macklin Celebrini took over, posting two primary assists in the second period. His first was a highlight reel "spin-o-rama" pass right onto the stick of Shane LaChance to tie the game. The two teams traded goals after that, but Lane Hutson's second of the weekend gave BU the 4-3 lead heading into the third period.
Minnesota would press for the game-tying goal, but the Terriers added two empty-net tallies to pull away for another 6-3 win.
Biggest X-Factor: Win The First Period
Boston University has heavily dominated opponents in the first 20 minutes this season. They've outscored their opponents by a near two-to-one margin (46 goals for, 26 against), averaged nearly three shots on goal more per game, and are 21-4-0 on the year when they score the first goal.
The biggest example of that stat came in two of Boston University's three losses to #1 Boston College this season, where they went down 2-0 in the first period. In the third loss, they didn't score and took two penalties. They flipped the script in their lone win against their biggest rival thanks to two goals from Celebrini in the first period of the Beanpot semifinals.
Although every first goal is important, it's nearly doubly so in the national tournament. Last season, the team who scored first went 11-4. The two years before that, teams scoring first went a combined 19-9. That's a 70% winning percentage going back the last 40+ games. Boston University scored the first goal in all three of their tournament games last season and against RIT in the regional round.
Why They Can Win It All: Macklin Celebrini (and Lane Huston)
When talking about Boston University, the conversation begins and ends with freshman Macklin Celebrini. At just 17 years old, the projected first-overall pick won the Hockey East scoring title and is second in the country in both goals (32) and points (64). With up to two games left this season, Macklin is still chasing down the 26-45-71 mark Jack Eichel set in his Hobey Baker winning 2015 campaign.
Celebrini is among a few "must-see" talents in the sport this year (including Boston College's freshman line, NoDak's Jackson Blake, Denver's Zeev Buium, etc.), but is in his own category. He can score from anywhere on the ice, and can get a pass to a high-danger scoring spot from anywhere else. He has ten multi-point games in his last 16, and was named to this year's Hobey Hat Trick.
Then, as if that wasn't enough high-end talent, the Terriers also have one of the country's best offensive defenseman in Lane Hutson. The sophomore has nearly matched his point total from last year (when he was named a Hobey Baker finalist) despite being injured early in the season. Hutson has 49 points in 37 games, including 17 in the 14 games since the Beanpot semifinals.
Macklin and Hutson are just two pieces of a very solid lineup, including an underrated defensive core. Boston University has been a top five team for most of the season, and has just five losses since January 1st.
Why They Can't Win It All: Inconsistency In Net, Struggles Against Boston College
Every team in the Frozen Four has a stacked roster, particularly on their top-four lines. Unlike year's past, however, all four teams are rolling with relatively inexperienced or inconsistent goaltenders. Denver's Matt Davis and Michigan's Jake Barczewski are playing their best hockey of the season at the right time, while Boston College's Jacob Fowler is a top-three finalist for the Mike Richter Award as a freshman.
As for Boston University, you can make the argument that freshman Mathieu Caron is the biggest liability among the four goaltenders heading into this weekend. Although he has played great in the last two months (he gave up two or fewer goals in 8 of his last 12 games), he put up two duds in that same span. In BU's only two losses since January, Caron gave up four goals on 17 shots (.765 SV%) and five on 28 shots (.821%). Just last weekend he gave up two goals to Minnesota that he could have fought off (granted, he did make multiple breakaway and highlight-reel saves in the regional round). Although he's a steady presence in the net, Boston University will need Caron to step up and make a few more big saves this weekend against some of the best offense in college hockey.
Another reason to be pessimistic in the Terriers are their struggles against #1 Boston College this season, a team they'd likely face of against in the NCAA Championship game. BC beat BU 6-2 just a few weeks ago in the Hockey East Championship game, and are 3-1 against the Terriers this season. However, their only loss came in (arguably) the biggest matchup of the season. Boston University beat their rivals 4-3 at TD Garden in the Beanpot Semifinals. That success on the big stage could translate to St. Paul.
#3 - Denver Pioneers
Searching Tenth Championship, Last in 2022
Record: 30-9-3 Overall, 15-7-2 in Conference Play
Conference Finish: 2nd in Regular Season, 1st in Postseason
Goals/Game: 4.71/game (1st in NCAA)
Goals Against/Game: 2.83/game (T-22nd)
Shots For, Against/Game: 32.07 for, 27.74 against (T-13th, 14th)
Power Play: 22.9% (16th)
Penalty Kill: 77.6% (T-45th)
Top Scorer: Jack Devine, Junior, Forward; 27 G - 29 A - 56 P
Top Goalie: Matt Davis, Junior; 21-5-3, 2.48 GAA, .911 SV%, and 1 SO
Three Players to Know:
- Jack Devine, Junior, Forward; 27 G - 29 A - 56 P
For most of the year Devine was the leading goal scorer in the country. Although he has slightly struggled without his top center Massimo Rizzo (upper-body injury), he's still averaging a point/game over his last nine games.
- Shai Buium, Junior, Defenseman; 7 G - 28 A - 35 P
The older Buium brother may not get the headlines, but he's one of the most underrated 200-foot players in the country. He was nominated for both 'offensive' and 'defensive' defenseman of the year in the NCHC.
- Matt Davis, Junior, Goalie; 21-5-3, 2.48 GAA, .911 SV%, 1 SO
Davis allowed just two goals in Denver's two regional games. He made a career-high 46 saves against Massachusetts in their 2-1 2OT win.
How They Got Here: Matt Davis
- 2-1 2OT Win Against #14 Massachusetts
After a Denver NCHC Championship win gave Massachusetts the final spot in this year's tournament over Colorado College, the Pioneers were rewarded with a "road" game against those same Minutemen. UMass was the host of the Springfield regional this year, and Denver had to fly 2,000 miles to host three eastern teams in the regional they were the #1 seed in.
All of the disadvantages didn't matter, as goaltender Matt Davis posted a career weekend in net. In the first game of the tournament the junior made 46 saves in a double-overtime thriller, keeping the Minutemen to just one goal despite two power plays and multiple 'Grade A' chances.
The two teams traded goals in the second period, with Boston Buckberger scoring from the high slot for Denver and Liam Gorman scoring his first of the season for Massachusetts. But despite plenty of action in the third period and overtime, no one would score until late in the second OT session. Junior forward Tristan Broz collected the puck off of a low to high play and threw it at the net. With a screen in front, the puck bounced past Michael Hrabal and into the net for the game-winning goal, silencing the hometown UMass fans.
- 2-1 Win Against #12 Cornell
In the regional final against Cornell, it was a matchup between one of the country's best offenses and best defenses. The advantage that Denver had was the high-level play of Matt Davis, who stopped 24 of 25 for his second-straight one-goal game.
It looked like Cornell had the early advantage in front of Ian Shane, one of the country's best goaltenders this season. The Big Red opened the scoring after Nick DeSantis buried a loose puck past Davis just seven minutes into the game. Cornell also held Denver to just 18 shots in the game, well below their season average of 32.07/game.
But again, Denver only needed two to go into the net to win. Freshman Miko Mattika tied the game late in the first period with a twisted wrister from the high slot, beating Shane over the glove-side shoulder. Then late in the second period the Pioneers capitalized on a 5-on-3.5. While on the penalty kill, a Cornell defenseman broke his stick and was caught in his own zone. Denver took advantage and got the puck to the front of the net, somehow pushing a shot through the legs of Shane for the eventual game-winning goal with just four seconds left in the period.
Despite most of the pressure in the third (shots were 9-3 Big Red), Cornell could not find the equalizer. They had a great chance with under ten seconds in the game, but Davis made his best save of the weekend to rob Ryan Walsh on the backdoor, sending Denver to the Frozen Four.
Biggest X-Factor: Zeev Buium
An x-factor can be anything from team structure, fans, an interesting stat, etc. But more often than not it's an exciting player, and that's exactly what Zeev Buium is to the Denver Pioneers. With shades of Cale Makar while at UMass, Buium is one of the most explosive defensemen in college hockey this year. He's one of three blue liners in the country with 40 or more points, along with other star players in the Frozen Four Lane Hutson (Boston University) and Seamus Casey (Michigan).
A lot of Denver's offense revolves around transition play and low-to-high passes in the offensive zone. You need solid offensive defenseman for both of those, which the Pioneers have plenty of: including Buium, his brother Shai, and junior Sean Behrens.
The dynamic that Zeev brings is the ability to explode off of the point, usually leaving a defenseman in the dust. As a left-handed shot, Buium can either find a pass through the seam or fly around the back of the net for a wraparound attempt. With a team that already has Jack Devine (27-29-56) and Massimo Rizzo (10-34-44) the freshman defenseman is someone you can't forget about on the ice. It's still unclear if Rizzo will be ready for this weekend, so having an offensive weapon on the blue line will be critical for Denver to keep up their offensive pace.
Why They Can Win It All: Offense
With all of those playmakers, it's no surprise that Denver has the country's top offense (4.7 goals/game). That's just ahead of Boston College, a team scoring at a mark of 4.6 goals/game with four of the top six scorers in the country.
You can find the biggest difference between the two teams in their scoring depth. BC has eights players scoring at a 0.50/game or better mark. In comparison, Denver has nearly double that amount, with 15 players scoring at least a half point/game. That depth is critical in the postseason as opposing defenses focus on neutralizing the top players.
Although defense wins championships, having a good offense helps. The last four national championships all had a top-ten offense, and two seasons ago Denver won their ninth national championship as the top scoring team in the country (4.3 goals/game). But in the NCAA Tournament they scored just 13 goals in their four games, including two with the empty net in the championship against Minnesota State. With less-sound goaltending throughout this year compared to that 2022 squad, it's never a sure thing with the top offense in the country. Even so, scoring nearly five goals a game should give Denver confidence.
Why They Can't Win It All: No Massimo Rizzo
This might be a stretch, and isn't meant to be a knock against the rest of the Denver Pioneers roster. As stated above, they are an extremely talented group of players who have proven they are one of the best offenses in the country. But so are the other three teams this week. Boston College, Boston University, and Michigan all have stacked lineups, and it feels like all three games this weekend might be a race to four (or even five) goals.
Without Rizzo, Denver is scoring a half goal less per game (5.0/game before February 3rd, 4.5/game after February 3rd). Granted, the Pioneers have put together a 12-1-1 record in that stretch, but that speaks more so to the Pioneer's depth and goaltending stepping up than anything else (something that's common under head coach David Carle).
You want to be at full strength this weekend, and it's still not clear if Rizzo will return to the lineup on Thursday. Even if he does, he hasn't played a game since early February, and would likely not be 100%. There is an argument that without Rizzo, the Pioneers lose the arm race among the four teams this weekend in terms of star power.
#10 - Michigan Wolverines
Searching Tenth Championship, Last in 1998
Record: 23-14-2 Overall, 11-11-2 in Conference Play
Conference Finish: 4th in Regular Season, 2nd in Postseason
Goals/Game: 4.23/game (T-3rd in NCAA)
Goals Against/Game: 3.03/game (T-32nd)
Shots For, Against/Game: 34.88 for, 30.43 against (5th, 39th)
Power Play: 34.5% (1st)
Penalty Kill: 77.6% (T-45th)
Top Scorer: Gavin Brindley, Sophomore, Forward; 25 G - 28 A - 53 P
Top Goalie: Jake Barczewski, Graduate Senior; 20-13-3, 2.81 GAA, .909 SV%, and 2 SO
Three Players to Know:
- Seamus Casey, Sophomore, Defenseman; 7 G - 38 A - 45 P
Casey is tied for the lead among NCAA defenseman with 38 assists, and trails only Zeev Buium (Denver) and Lane Hutson (Boston University) in total points from the blue line.
- Dylan Duke, Junior, Forward; 26 G - 23 A - 49 P
The Wolverines block a very healthy number of shots (13.4/game) thanks to players like Dylan Duke. The junior has 48 blocks to go along with 49 points this season.
- Gavin Brindley, Sophomore, Forward; 25 G - 28 A - 53 P
After 38 points last season, Brindley returned to Michigan and leads the teams in points. His blistering 21.4% shot percentage ranks 5th in the country among players with 20+ goals.
How They Got Here: Third Period Dominance
- 4-3 Win Against #6 North Dakota
In one of three #2 seed vs. #3 seed "upsets" of the weekend, Michigan took down fellow blue blood North Dakota in the final regional semifinal of the Thursday/Friday slate of games. Early in the game it looked like the Wolverines would miss out on a chance to play for their third-straight Frozen Four appearance, as the Fighting Hawks completely shut down their offense in the neutral zone.
NoDak opened the scoring with a 4-on-4 goal in the first period, and got another from Hobey Hat Trick finalist Jackson Blake in the second. But Michigan hung around, getting a goal from Frank Nazar III early in the second period, and entered the second intermission down by one.
The Wolverines then completely dominated the third period, scoring twice in the first 2:30 and adding a third ten minutes later to take a 4-2 lead.
Junior forward Dylan Duke scored twice, including the eventual game-winning goal on a pretty 2-on-1 pass from T.J. Hughes (who had the other third period goal). North Dakota's Jackson Kunz cut the lead to 4-3 a few minutes later, but the Fighting Hawks couldn't find the equalizer, and Michigan advanced to the regional final.
- 5-2 Win Against #4 Michigan State
It was a rivalry matchup with a trip to St. Paul on the line, as Michigan and Michigan State met for the sixth time this season and second time in the last two weeks. The game could not have come at a different time for the two programs, as the Wolverines were playing to keep their national-championship contending window open while the Spartans were searching for their first Frozen Four appearance since 2007.
Once again Michigan looked outmatched early, not getting much going offensively through the first 40 minutes. Michigan State opened the scoring with a power play goal from Gavin O'Connell in the first period, which the Wolverines were able to match in the second period with a one-time blast from Ethan Edwards.
Heading into the third period tied at 1-1, Michigan exploded for four goals in the next 20 minutes. Their high-end talent took over the game after matching goals from Wolverines' defenseman Marshall Warren and Sparty's Joey Larson. With just over seven minutes left in the game Dylan Duke took the puck through the neutral zone, skated around a defenseman, and wrapped the puck around the pad of MSU's Trey Augustine for the go-ahead goal.
Then on corresponding faceoff at center ice the Wolverines got the puck up to Frank Nazar behind the Michigan State defense on a 2-on-1. With the puck on his backhand, the sophomore passed the puck over to Gavin Brindley with a between-the-legs move, leading to a highlight reel goal for Michigan just 12 seconds after taking the lead.
The Wolverines would score on the power play with just over two minutes left in the game at 5-2, sending their rivals home in the biggest game of the season.
Biggest X-Factor: Special Teams
The Wolverines power play has been on a tear in the second half of the season, scoring 27 power play goals in 22 games (27/72, 37.5%). That includes a six games back in January where Michigan averaged over two such goals per game, going 15-for-27 (55.5%) on the PP over a 4-2-0 stretch to jumpstart their run to the NCAA tournament.
Ahead of Boston College, Michigan's top-ranked power play (34.5%) scored one more goal than the Eagles despite getting 19 less chances 5-on-4. However, unlike top-ranked BC there is an issue with the Wolverines' special teams. Their penalty kill has a success rate of just 77.6%, good for T-45th in the country this season. That's tied with Denver for the worst kill among Frozen Four teams.
Why They Can Win It All: High-End Offensive Talent
Similar to last year's team which included Hobey Baker winner Adam Fantilli (30-35-65) and current NHL defenseman Luke Hughes (10-38-48), this year's Michigan team also is loaded with high-end talent. Six players have 40+ points, and six have 16+ goals. The Wolverines are led by sophomore forwards Rutger McGroarty and Gavin Brindley, who have combined for 105 points on the top line this season.
McGroarty is second on the Wolverines with 52 points despite missing five games back in November due to injury. Since then he has played at a 1.5 point/game pace (34 in 22 GP), and entered the tournament on an eight-game point streak.
From top to bottom, the Wolverines' top two lines are stacked. The six forwards have combined for 243 total points this season. Then on the back end you have Seamus Casey, tied for the NCAA lead in assists among defenseman this season (38 total, averaging near one/game). It's no wonder that Michigan is top ten in nearly every major offensive statistic: goals/game, power play %, shots/game, shot percentage.
Why They Can't Win It All: Inconsistency vs. Top Teams
Compared to the other three teams, Michigan has struggled the most in their games against the top teams this season. In their 16 games against tournament teams (including their two wins in the regionals), Michigan is just 6-9-1. Those games were against #4 Michigan State, #6 North Dakota, #7 Minnesota, #8 Wisconsin, and #14 Massachusetts.
In comparison, the other three teams this week all have records well above .500 after the games two weeks ago. Boston College is 11-3-1, Boston University is 9-5-1, and Denver is 10-6-0 in games against this year's NCAA Tournament field.
Despite the less-than-optimistic contrast, the Wolverines have been playing their best hockey as of late. They went 4-2-0 in the month of March, including two road wins at #7 Minnesota and "upset" wins over North Dakota and Michigan State at the Maryland Heights regional. They'll need to continue that momentum against a red-hot Boston College team on Thursday.
