ECH 2024 MEN'S NCAA TOURNAMENT Preview

BY ALEX BERGER, MARCH 28TH:

After hundreds of games and thousands of goals, there are only 15 games left in the NCAA Men's College Hockey season. This year was the return of the "Blue Blood" programs. Boston College, Boston University, Denver, Michigan State, Maine, North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are the top eight teams this season, many of whom are making their return to the tournament for the first time in years.

Over the next four days, the 16 teams will play in four different regionals to determine who will go to the Frozen Four. That will begin on Thursday, April 11th at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, Minnesota. We have eight great matchups on hand for Thursday/Friday, and four potential instant-classic regional finals on Saturday/Sunday.

In this in-depth preview, you'll find all of the stats and players you need to know about before the puck drops on Thursday afternoon. Plus, an x-factor and reason why each of the 16 teams in this year's tournament has a chance to lift the national championship. To make it easier to look at matchups, teams are sorted by their regional placements.

Providence, RI Regional: March 29-31

#1 - Boston College Eagles

Record: 31-5-1 Overall, 20-3-1 in Conference Play

Conference Finish: 1st in Regular Season, 1st in Postseason

Goals/Game: 4.54/game (2nd in NCAA)

Goals Against/Game: 2.22/game (4th)

Shots For, Against/Game: 31.92 for, 28.65 against (16th, 25th)

Power Play: 29.2% (2nd)

Penalty Kill: 89.6% (1st)

Top Scorer: Will Smith, Freshman, Forward; 23 G - 44 A - 67 P

Top Goalie: Jacob Fowler, Freshman; 29-5-1, 2.19 GAA, .925 SV%, and 2 SO

Three Players to Know:

- Cutter Gauthier, So., Forward; 35 G - 24 A - 59 P

The sophomore leads the NCAA in goals (35) and game-winning goals (10). Boston College is 24-0-0 this season when Gauthier scores.

- Jacob Fowler, Fr., Goaltender; 29-5-1, 2.19 GAA, .925 SV%, 2 SO

Often overlooked when talking about talented BC freshmen this season is Fowler. The Mike Richter finalist has given up two or fewer goals in 11 of 18 games since January 1st.

- Eamon Powell, Sr., Defenseman; 5 G - 28 A - 33 P, 41 Shot Blocks

The Boston College captain plays much bigger than his size (5'11", 175 lbs.) as a top-two defenseman. He's one of four Eagles with 40+ blocked shots this season.

Biggest X-Factor: Gabe Perreault/Will Smith/Ryan Leonard Line

Similar to last year's #1 team, Minnesota, one of the nation's top lines once again plays for the top team. Freshmen Gabe Perreault, Will Smith, and Ryan Leonard continued their momentum from last season on the U.S. Under-18 Team, and have paced the country with a combined 68 goals - 110 assists - 178 points in 37 games (a combined 4.81 points/game between the trio) in their first season in college hockey. Smith is the current NCAA leader in both assists (44) and points (67), and is a Hobey Baker finalist alongside teammate Cutter Gauthier.

A big question mark heading into the postseason was the health of Perreault, who posted 14 points in seven games before suffering an upper-body injury in late February. Since he returned, however, the left winger has been on fire. He tallied three goals and seven point points last weekend in the final two games of the Hockey East tournament, and seems to be back to full strength. Boston College has plenty of firepower to put into the top six -- including Gauthier and Oskar Jellvik (12-25-37 points) -- and the Eagles' forward core plays much better with Perreault in it. They are one of the most dangerous in the country at full strength.

Why They Can Win It All: Well-Rounded Attack

Boston College gets a lot of attention for their offensive firepower and first round draft picks, but the reason they are the top team in the country is because of how well rounded they are. They can score, yes (4.5 goals/game, 2nd in the NCAA), but they also have a top-five defense (2.22 goals against/game, 4th), power play (29.2%, 2nd), and penalty kill (89.6%, 1st).

Last season's national champion -- Quinnipiac -- was top-five in three of those marks. The year before that, Denver was top-ten in both goals for and against/game. Well-rounded, talented teams tend to go far in the NCAA's. Boston College has those pieces and are a deserving #1 overall seed.

The Eagles have also proven that they can play against the best teams in college hockey. They're 3-1 against #2 Boston University this year, swept #4 Michigan State, and beat #9 Quinnipiac to open the season. BC has lost just five games all season and is undefeated since February 5th. They look like they're destined to play in St. Paul in two weeks.

#8 - Wisconsin Badgers

Record: 26-11-2 Overall, 16-7-1 in Conference Play

Conference Finish: 2nd in Regular Season, T-5th in Postseason

Goals/Game: 3.23/game (T-16th in NCAA)

Goals Against/Game: 2.00/game (3rd)

Shots For, Against/Game: 35.08 for, 28.10 against/game (5th, T-18th)

Power Play: 19.9% (31st)

Penalty Kill: 86.8% (3rd)

Top Scorer: Cruz Lucius, Sophomore, Forward; 13 goals - 21 assists - 44 points

Top Goalie: Kyle McClellan, Senior; 24-11-1, 1.92 GAA, .931 SV%, and 7 shutouts 

Three Players to Know:

- David Silye, Senior, Forward; 9 G - 23 A - 32 P

Brought in by coach Mike Hastings' through the transfer portal from last season, Silye led the Badgers in assists (23) and faceoff wins (490 on 59.8 win%) in 2023/'24.

- Anthony Kehrer, Senior, Defenseman; 2 G - 7 A - 9 P

The top-pair defenseman leads the Badgers with a +18 plus/minus rating. He and his partner Daniel Laatsch have combined for 110 shot blocks this season.

- Simon Tassy, Sophomore, Forward; 12 G - 16 A - 28 P

Another former Maverick, Tassy has excelled in his second season. He's shown a knack for scoring in big moments, leading Wisconsin in power play goals (7) and tied for the lead in game winners (4).

Biggest X-Factor: Mike Hastings

Not only did Mike Hastings bring over three very talented players last offseason, he brought a winning culture to the Wisconsin locker room after a dominant decade-long stretch with Minnesota State Mankato. The Badgers jumped out to a 9-1-0 record (their only loss coming on the road at now #6 North Dakota) and became Everything College Hockey's top team in the country after the first month of the season.

But unlike Mike Hastings' teams of the past, Wisconsin seemingly faltered down the stretch. After going 16-4-0 during the first half of the season, the Badgers went 11-7-2 after January 1st (including a 4-5-0 mark in their last nine games). Four of those losses came to Ohio State in the last four weekends of the year, knocking the Badgers out of both regular-season title contention and the conference tournament. A one-two punch, as Wisconsin hasn't played a game since March 10th and are now a two seed after being in control to be a top-four team for most of the season.

The biggest x-factor with Wisconsin comes from behind the bench. How will Mike Hastings and his coaching staff respond to a disappointing end to the Big Ten season? They'll play the defending national champions Quinnipiac in their first game, a team also coming off of a disappointing loss to end the season (the Bobcats lost 3-0 to St. Lawrence in the ECAC semifinals). The matchup features two teams who couldn't be different in recent NCAA experience.

Why They Can Win It All: Kyle McClellan

Whether it's his skill or the defense in front of him, senior forward Kyle McClellan has been one of the best goaltenders in college hockey this season. He is currently top four in wins (24, T-4th), GAA (1.92, 2nd), shutouts (7, 1st), and SV% (.931%, T-1st) while playing in one of the most shot-heavy conferences in the country. Since a tough series at Michigan in late-January, McClellan has dialed in, allowing two or fewer goals in 10 of his last 13 games.

Just last week, McClellan was named a top-three finalist for this year's Mike Richter Award. If the Badgers win, there would be a likely showdown between the only two finalists in the NCAA tournament this season -- McClellan and Boston College's Jacob Fowler (Colorado College's Kaidan Mbereko is also up for the award).

You may remember this stat from last season's NCAA Tournament preview, and the streak continued. The last five national champions (Quinnipiac, Denver, Massachusetts, Minnesota-Duluth ['19], and Minnesota-Duluth ['18]) all won the tournament without allowing more than two goals in a single game. UMass and the Bulldogs' 2019 team both won the tournament while only allowing three goals the entire tournament. McClellan is one of three starting goaltenders this season with a 2.00 GAA or lower, and has the skills to steal some games either in both Providence and St. Paul.

#9 - Quinnipiac Bobcats

Record: 26-9-2 Overall, 17-4-1 in Conference Play

Conference Finish: 1st in Regular Season, T-3rd in Postseason

Goals/Game: 4.14/game (T-4th in NCAA)

Goals Against/Game: 1.95/game (T-1st)

Shots For, Against/Game: 34.32 for, 23.24 against (T-7th, 3rd)

Power Play: 22.1% (T-21st)

Penalty Kill: 83.7% (T-12th)

Top Scorer: Collin Graf, Junior, Forward; 22 G - 26 A - 48 P

Top Goalie: Vinny Duplessis, Senior; 20-6-2, 1.93 GAA, .918 SV%, and 3 SO

Three Players to Know:

- Jacob Quillan, Junior, Forward; 15 G - 29 A - 44 P

The overtime hero of last year's NCAA Championship game, Quillan is like the 'Robin' to Collin Graf's 'Batman.' The junior leads Quinnipiac in assists (29) and is second in points (44) this season.

- Jayden Lee, Graduate Senior, Defenseman; 3 G - 22 A - 25 P

The graduate senior captain has played in 170 career games and was a finalist for ECAC Defensive Defenseman of the Year. Lee was also named to the All-Conference First Team and set a career high in points.

- Mason Marcellus, Freshman, Forward; 14 G - 22 A - 36 P

Marcellus leads the country in plus/minus rating (+35) and is averaging nearly a point per game as a freshman. The left winger plays on the second line with Quillan and Andon Cerbone.

Biggest X-Factor: Defending National Champions

For the first time ever, Quinnipiac got to experience a season as the defending national champion. Their banner-raising night was spoiled by now #1 Boston College with a 2-1 overtime loss, and the Bobcats may get a chance for revenge in the regional final.

In the past 30 years, there have only been three teams to win back-to-back titles. Minnesota in 2004/'05, Denver in 2006/'07, and Minnesota-Duluth in 2017/'18. Only one team -- Michigan from 1951-'53 -- has managed to three-peat. In a one-and-done format it is incredibly hard for a team to win a title, let alone in back-to-back years.

Quinnipiac did lose some pieces from 2023, but a large core of star players is still on the roster: including Collin Graf, Jacob Quillan, Jayden Lee, Sam Lipkin, and Christophe Tellier. That group of five knows what it takes to make a title run, which makes them very dangerous heading into this year's tournament.

Why They Can Win It All: Puck Possession

Alongside lots of scoring depth, another strength of Quinnipiac's' is their puck possession metrics. The Bobcats are the top faceoff team in the tournament (win percentage of 55%), rank first in the country in both Corsi For (60.6%) and Fenwick For (60%). The latter two track the percentage of shot attempts and unblocked shot attempts taken and allowed, respectively.

Quinnipiac is built very similar to last year's title-winning team. In fact, it's almost to a scary level. When comparing the two team's national ranks in team stats, I found an almost identical mark in four major statistical categories heading into their respective tournaments. Those include goals/game (T-3rd last year, T-4th this year), goals against/game (1st, T-1st), shots for/game (T-7th, T-7th), and shots against/game (3rd/3rd).

Last season, Quinnipiac heavily outshot their opponents in their four wins (a combined mark of 130-78). If this year's statistics are any indication, don't be surprised to see very similar numbers this year.

#16 - Michigan Tech Huskies

Record: 19-14-6 Overall, 12-10-2 in Conference Play

Conference Finish: T-2nd in Regular Season, 1st in Postseason

Goals/Game: 2.77/game (T-35th)

Goals Against/Game: 2.49/game (T-10th)

Shots For, Against/Game: 32.46 for, 28.41 against (12th, T-22nd)

Power Play: 22.9% (T-16th)

Penalty Kill: 78.4% (T-41st)

Top Scorer: Isaac Gordon, Freshman, Forward; 18 G - 18 A - 36 P

Top Goalie: Blake Pietila, Graduate Senior; 18-12-6, 2.28 GAA, .920 SV%, 4 SO

Three Players to Know:

- Logan Pietila, Senior, Forward; 13 G - 16 A - 29 P

The Pietila brothers are an integral part of Michigan Tech's lineup. Logan is a co-captain and tied for the team lead with five game-winning goals this year.

- Ryland Mosley, Senior, Forward; 18 G - 15 A - 33 P

The senior forward is one of the hottest in the country right now. Mosley has 4g-5a-9p in his last five games, including the game-winning goal in last week's CCHA Championship.

- Blake Pietila, Graduate Senior, Goaltender; 18-12-6, 2.28 GAA, .920 SV%, and 4 SO

Although he hasn't quite lived up to his preseason Mike Richter Award favorite hype, the third and final Pietila brother may be the most important to MTU. Blake is a three-year starter and ranks T-11th in the country with a .920 SV%.

Biggest X-Factor: Down Year For The CCHA

For the first time since 2017, the WCHA/CCHA is sending only one team to the NCAA Tournament. Since that year, Minnesota State and Michigan Tech have become mainstays in late March, with the Huskies making their third-straight appearance this season.

It was a down year across the board for the conference, sparked by long-time Mavericks' head coach Mike Hastings departure for Wisconsin. But across all nine teams (including Augustana), the CCHA went a combined 21-50-10 against the other five conferences. That was the worst in the country this season, and explains why no team finished above 30 in the Pairwise.

If Michigan Tech is going to reverse that trend, they'll have to do it against the country's best team. Boston College hasn't lost since February 5th and went 8-2-0 in nonconference play this season.

Why They Can Win It All: Peaking At The Right Time

If there's any hope for MTU, it's that they're playing their best hockey of the season at the perfect time. Before this current five-game winning streak, their longest such of the season was just three games, posted all the way back in November. They're 8-2-0 heading into the NCAA tournament, better than any other ten-game stretch this season.

The Huskies also got the chance to play in front of a hostile environment last Friday, when they beat Bemidji State on the road for the Mason Cup and the automatic bid. The Beavers had an 11-game unbeaten streak snapped, which was the longest in the country.

Anything can happen in the tournament, especially for teams with depth scoring and a great goaltender. Michigan Tech has both, and are playing with confidence heading into their toughest game of the season.

Sioux Falls, SD Regional: March 28-30

#2 - Boston University Terriers

Record: 26-9-2 Overall, 18-4-2 in Conference Play

Conference Finish: 2nd in Regular Season, 2nd in Postseason

Goals/Game: 4.05/game (T-4th in NCAA)

Goals Against/Game: 2.41/game (T-7th)

Shots For, Against/Game: 32.68 for, 27.95 against (9th, T-16th)

Power Play: 28.5% (3rd)

Penalty Kill: 79.5% (35th)

Top Scorer: Macklin Celebrini, Freshman, Forward; 31 G - 28 A - 59 P

Top Goalie: Mathieu Caron, Junior; 26-9-2, 2.33 GAA, .916 SV%, and 2 SO

Three Players to Know:

- Quinn Hutson, Sophomore, Forward; 17 G - 18 A - 35 P

Quinn and Lane are one of three pairs of brothers on Boston University this year, and both can find the back of the net. Quinn leads his brother with 17 goals, which only trails Macklin Celebrini for the team lead.

- Tom Willander, Freshman, Defenseman; 4 G - 18 A - 22 P

The first-round pick has found his stride since a great showing at this year's World Junior's. He has 14 points in the 20 games since then, including three multi-point games.

- Cade Webber, Senior, Defenseman; 0 G - 6 A - 6 P

The 6'7" defenseman has more shot blocks this season (127) than any other player in college hockey, leading the Terriers to 550 total this season. His 127 blocks (and counting) also is an NCAA single-season record. The guy is a shot-sponge if we’ve ever seen one.

Biggest X-Factor: Win The First Period 

Boston University has heavily dominated opponents in the first 20 minutes this season. They've outscored their opponents by a near two-to-one margin (43 goals for, 23 against), averaged nearly four shots on goal more per game, and are 20-4-0 on the year when they score the first goal.

The biggest example of that stat came in two of Boston University's three losses to #1 Boston College this season, where they went down 2-0 in the first period. In the third loss, they didn't score and took two penalties. They flipped the script in their lone win against their biggest rival thanks to two goals from Celebrini in the first period of the Beanpot semifinals.

Although every first goal is important, it's nearly doubly so in the national tournament. Last season, the team who scored first went 11-4. The two years before that, teams scoring first went a combined 19-9. That's a 70% winning percentage going back the last 40+ games. Boston University scored the first goal in all three of their tournament games last season, and has the talent to continue the trend into 2024.

Why They Can Win It All: Macklin Celebrini (and Lane Huston)

When talking about Boston University, the conversation begins and ends with freshman Macklin Celebrini. At just 17 years old, the projected first-overall pick won the Hockey East scoring title and is second in the country in both goals (31) and points (59). With up to four games left this season, Macklin is still chasing down the 26-45-71 mark Jack Eichel set in his Hobey Baker winning 2015 campaign.

Celebrini is among a few "must-see" talents in the sport this year (including Boston College's freshman line, NoDak's Jackson Blake, Denver's Zeev Buium, etc.), but is in his own category. He can score from anywhere on the ice, and can get a pass to a high-danger scoring spot from anywhere else. He has eight multi-point games in his last 14, and is a top frontrunner for this year's Hobey.

Then, as if that wasn't enough high-end talent, the Terriers also have one of the country's best offensive defenseman in Lane Hutson. The sophomore has nearly matched his point total from last year (when he was named a Hobey Baker finalist) despite being injured early in the season. Hutson has 46 points in 35 games, including 14 in the 12 games since the Beanpot semifinals.

Macklin and Hutson are just two pieces of  a very solid lineup, including an underrated defensive core. Boston University has been a top five team for most of the season, and has just five losses since January 1st. That star power is exactly what separates these 16 teams in the NCAA Tournament.

#7 - Minnesota Golden Gophers

Record: 22-10-5 overall, 13-7-4 in conference play

Conference Finish: 3rd in regular season, T-3rd in postseason

Goals/Game: 3.49/game (10th in NCAA)

Goals Against/Game: 2.49/game (T-10th)

Shots For, Against/Game: 32.78 for, 30.35 against (T-10th, T-40th)

Power Play: 23.4% (14th)

Penalty Kill: 80.0% (T-32nd)

Top Scorer: Rhett Pitlick, Junior, Forward; 19 goals - 16 assists - 35 points

Top Goalie: Justen Close, Graduate Senior; 21-9-5, 2.33 GAA, 4 SO, and .923 SV%

Three Players to Know:

- Jimmy Snuggerud, Sophomore, Forward; 21 G - 13 A - 34 P

Jimmy Snuggerud is one of the Gophers' most dangerous offensive weapons, but has gone cold as of late. He has a team-leading 21 goals in 2023/'24 but just three in his last 14 games.

- Jaxon Nelson, Graduate Senior, Forward; 16 G - 12 A - 28 A

The two-year captain has been red hot amidst a career year, scoring eight goals in his last six games. He has a great history in the NCAA tournament as well with eight points in nine career games (including at least one point in all four in 2023).

- Sam Rinzel, Freshman, Defenseman; 2 G -25 A - 27 P

The 6'4", 185lbs. first-round pick (CHI) has some soft offensive touch from the blue line. Rinzel leads the Gophers in assists and has seven multi-point games this year.

Biggest X-Factor: Justen Close

A Mike Richter award semifinalist, "the Closer" returned to Dinkytown for his fifth year despite some potential NHL interest after a fantastic senior season (2.02 GAA, .927 SV%, six shutouts). Close's stats have fallen a bit -- 21-9-5 (T-6th in NCAA), 2.33 GAA (T-16th), .923 SV% (T-7th), four shutouts (T-4th), and 986 saves (7th) -- likely due to the loss of some great defenseman from last season.

Close's struggles came early in the year, giving up five goals in five of his first 19 games. Since then he's allowed more than three goals just once, and has gone 12-2-1 since a 6-4 home loss to Colorado College on January 7th. His best stretch came three weeks later when he went 4-0-1 with a .981 SV% and 0.59 GAA, including wins over tournament teams Michigan State and Wisconsin. Then just three weeks ago, he posted a career-high 46 saves in a Big Ten quarterfinal win over Penn State.

Although Close is a little more inconsistent than in year's past, use that term very lightly. He's still one of the most dominant goaltenders in college hockey. In a season where it seems like the tournament is wide open, a top goalie can be all that you need to string together a few wins.

Why They Can Win It All: Frozen Four Experience

Not only are the Gophers one of the top teams in the country again this year, but they did so while losing a huge class of players to both graduation and the NHL. But a large group did return, including: 11 forwards, five defenseman, and two goalies. Of those, seven total players (including top players like Close, Nelson, and forward Bryce Brodzinski) are coming off back-to-back Frozen Four runs. That experience is critical in the NCAA Tournament and can only be gained by those deep postseason runs in prior seasons.

The Gophers are one of two teams in this year's field (Michigan) that made it to Boston and Tampa Bay the last two seasons. They'll now both look to be the first team since Minnesota-Duluth (2017-'19) and just the fifth since 2000 to make the Frozen Four in three-straight seasons. 

This year the goal is the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul; just seven miles away from the university and the site of the Gophers' 2002 NCAA Title. If Minnesota were to make it back to the Frozen Four again they'd essentially have a "home" regional, with thousands of fans descending upon West 7th. The trio of Close, the potential for thousands of home fans, and that postseason experience is a dangerous combination for any team to play against.

#11 - Omaha Mavericks

Record: 23-12-4 Overall, 13-8-3 in Conference Play

Conference Finish: 5th in Regular Season, 2nd in Postseason

Goals/Game: 2.95/game (T-31st in NCAA)

Goals Against/Game: 2.79/game (T-22nd)

Shots For, Against/Game: 27.74 for, 30.95 against (T-47th, 42nd)

Power Play: 18.1% (43rd)

Penalty Kill: 78.4% (T-41st)

Top Scorer: Tanner Ludtke, Freshman, Forward; 11 G - 17 A - 28 P

Top Goalie: Simon Latkoczy, Sophomore; 19-11-3, 2.68 GAA, .912 SV%, and 2 SO

Three Players to Know:

- Simon Latkoczy, Sophomore, Goaltender; 19-11-3, 2.68 GAA, .912 SV%, and 2 SO

"The Cat" is one of the most athletic goaltenders in the country. Latkoczy has 13 games with 30+ saves this season, including six-straight entering the NCAA Tournament.

- Zach Urdahl, Junior, Forward; 13 G - 12 A - 25 P

Last week Urdahl scored just the second hat trick in NCHC Frozen Faceoff history against rival UND. The junior is tied with Jack Randl for the team lead in goals with 13.

- Nolan Sullivan, Graduate Senior, Forward; 7 G - 9 A - 16 P

The two-time captain is one of 13 upperclassmen on the roster. Sullivan leads the Mavericks in faceoff wins (434) and faceoff percentage (55.5%) on a UNO squad that is 4th-best among tournament teams on draws.

Biggest X-Factor: Can They Control the Play?

As a North Dakota fan, I have seen plenty of Omaha games over the last few weeks. The Mavericks swept my Fighting Hawks a few weeks ago, and knocked them out of the NCHC tournament last weekend in St. Paul. What I was most impressed by with the Mavericks was their defensive play, both in their own zone and at center ice. NoDak was unable to get any of their transition game working, leading to turnovers and long stretches of play in their own zone.

That's where Omaha is dangerous. They have four lines and three defensive pairs that you can trust at all times: whether it's on the forecheck, defending a rush, or getting pucks to the net. Their top three centers are all 50%+ in the faceoff circle, and they have a very underrated goaltender between the pipes. All of the makings of a tough playoff team to match up against.

The big question heading into their game against Minnesota on Thursday night is if Omaha will be able to control the pace of play as the away team. Although UNO will (likely) have the most fans, they won't have the last shift, meaning they won't be able to match up their preferred players against the Gophers situationally. The first 10 minutes of their game will be critical as both teams attempt to figure the other out. If Omaha can start cycling pucks, watch out.

Why They Can Win It All: Hosting Regional, Record in One-Goal Games

The first reason may be cheating a bit, but we used it last year for Penn State (who of note, lost in overtime in their regional final). Hosting a regional gives your team and fans an undeniable boost of energy towards making the Frozen Four, and a fanbase like Omaha will certainly bring that to Sioux Falls this weekend. This is just the fifth time in program history that UNO has made the NCAA tournament, and just the second time since their trip to the Frozen Four in 2015. With Omaha, NE just under three hours away, expect a lot of cowbells at the Denny Sanford Premier Center.

The other reason to be confident in the Mavericks this season is their unbelievable record in one-goal games. Omaha has a 16-2(!!!) record in such games, including a 7-1-4 mark in 3-on-3 overtime. A lot of that has to do with the play of Simon Latkoczy in net, but at a certain point you have to respect that the Mavericks are comfortable and experienced playing in close games. With their size, depth, experience, and "home ice advantage," it would not come as a shock for UNO to pull off an upset or two.

#15 - RIT Tigers

Record: 27-10-2 Overall, 18-7-1 in Conference Play

Conference Finish: 1st in Regular Season, 1st in Postseason

Goals/Game: 3.92/game (T-6th in NCAA)

Goals Against/Game: 2.31/game (T-5th)

Shots For, Against/Game: 35.92 for, 30.38 against (T-3rd, T-40th)

Power Play: 23.6% (13th)

Penalty Kill: 86.4% (4th)

Top Scorer: Carter Wilkie, Junior, Forward; 16 G - 25 A - 41 P

Top Goalie: Tommy Sacrfone, Junior; 25-8-2, 2.18 GAA, .928 SV%, 4 SO

Three Players to Know:

- Gianfranco Cassaro, Senior, Defenseman; 17 G - 19 A - 36 P

The senior defenseman led all NCAA defenseman in goals for the second-straight season, and his team in GWG (5) and PPG (8). He's a back-to-back member of the Atlantic Hockey First Team.

- Aiden Hansen-Bukata, Senior, Defenseman; 5 G - 26 A - 31 P

Cassaro's defensive partner leads the Tigers with a +24 rating, and is second on the team in both assists (26) and blocked shots (59) this season.

- Elijah Gonslaves, Graduate Senior, Forward; 19 G - 18 A - 37 P

The fifth-year winger is tied for the team lead in goals this season, and has four goals in his last two games. He's entering the tournament on a five-game point streak.

Biggest X-Factor: Race To Four

RIT is a very balanced team. They rank top ten in goals/game (3.92, T-6th), goals against/game (2.31, T-5th), shots/game (T-3rd), and on the penalty kill (86.4%, 4th). They have six players with double-digit goals -- tied with Minnesota for the most in their regional -- and have 16 players with 10+ blocks.

However, the biggest key to RIT's success is their ability to win the race to four. They have not lost a game this year when scoring four goals or more (22-0-1) and have won just two when they allow 4+. That seems obvious, but is especially critical this time of the season. Last year, none of the 15 tournament games saw both teams score three goals; i.e., the losing team scored at most two goals in their loss.

Heading into their first NCAA tournament since 2016, the Tigers seem to be peeking at the right time. They're on a five-game winning streak, outscoring their opponents 26-6 in that stretch, and have not allowed a team to even reach three goals since February 17th.

Why They Can Win It All: Experienced Defense

The first thing you notice about the Tigers' roster this season is their age. They are the oldest team in college hockey (average age of 23.2 years old), and have 13 upperclassmen on their roster. That's most evident in their defensive core, where three of their top six defenseman are seniors. Their top d-man, Gianfranco Cassaro, will turn 25 on Saturday and has played in 156 career games.

Then in net, you have one of the most underrated and experienced goaltenders in the country in Tommy Scarfone. The junior was named a Mike Richter Award finalist, and has posted a 47-19-3 record over the past two seasons as a full-time starter. This season he ranks top ten in wins, GAA, SV %, shutouts, and total saves.

The Tigers are a classic #1/#4 sleeper pick in the NCAA Tournament. They have depth scoring, a solid defensive core, and a great goaltender. Historically, a four seed has posted at least one upset in nine of the last ten years going back to 2013 (that happened in '22). Among this years four seeds, RIT may be built the best to continue that streak.

Springfield, MA Regional: March 28-30

#3 - Denver Pioneers

Record: 28-9-3 Overall, 15-7-2 in Conference Play

Conference Finish: 2nd in Regular Season, 1st in Postseason

Goals/Game: 4.85/game (1st in NCAA)

Goals Against/Game: 2.93/game (T-28th)

Shots For, Against/Game: 32.15 for, 27.33 against (13th, 13th)

Power Play: 22.9% (T-16th)

Penalty Kill: 77.1% (T-48th)

Top Scorer: Jack Devine, Junior, Forward; 27 G - 28 A - 55 P

Top Goalie: Matt Davis, Junior; 19-5-3, 2.64 GAA, .905 SV%, and 1 SO

Three Players to Know:

- Jack Devine, Junior, Forward; 27 G - 28 A - 55 P

For most of the year Devine was the leading goal scorer in the country. Although he has slightly struggled without his top center Massimo Rizzo (uppper-body injury), he still has five goals in his last seven games heading into the tournament.

- Shai Buium, Junior, Defenseman; 7 G - 27 A - 34 P

The older Buium brother may not get the headlines, but he's one of the most underrated 200-foot players in the country. He was nominated for both 'offensive' and 'defensive' defenseman of the year in the NCHC.

- Matt Davis, Junior, Goalie; 19-5-3, 2.64 GAA, .905 SV%

Denver struggled early in team defense while Davis was injured -- 3.21 goals/against per game before January 1st. They're allowing almost a quarter goal/game less with him in net this season.

Biggest X-Factor: Zeev Buium

An x-factor can be anything from team structure, fans, an interesting stat, etc. But more often than not it's an exciting player, and that's exactly what Zeev Buium is to the Denver Pioneers. With shades of Cale Makar while at UMass, Buium is one of the most explosive defensemen in college hockey this year. He's one of three blue liners in the country with 40 or more points, along with other star players Lane Hutson (Boston University) and Seamus Casey (Michigan).

A lot of Denver's offense revolves around transition play and low-to-high passes in the offensive zone. You need solid offensive defenseman for both of those, which the Pioneers have plenty of: including Buium, his brother Shai, and junior Sean Behrens.

The dynamic that Zeev brings is the ability to explode off of the point, usually leaving a defenseman in the dust. As a left-handed shot, Buium can either find a pass through the seam or fly around the back of the net for a wraparound attempt. With a team that already has Jack Devine (27-28-55) and Massimo Rizzo (10-34-44), the freshman defenseman is someone you can't forget about on the ice. It's still unclear if Rizzo will be ready for this weekend, so having an offensive weapon on the blue line will be critical for Denver to keep up their offensive pace.

Why They Can Win It All: Offense

With all of those playmakers, it's no surprise that Denver has the country's top offense. With 4.9 goals/game, the Pioneers are scoring nearly a half a goal more/game than any other team in the country. That's over Boston College, a team scoring at a mark of 4.5 goals/game with four of the top seven scorers in the country.

You can find the biggest difference between the two teams in their scoring depth. BC has eights players scoring at a 0.50/game or better mark. In comparison Denver has nearly double that amount, with 15 players scoring at least a half point/game. That depth is critical in the postseason as opposing defenses focus on neutralizing the top players.

Although defense wins championships, having a good offense helps. The last four national championships all had a top-ten offense, and two seasons ago Denver won their ninth national championship as the top scoring team in the country (4.3 goals/game). But in the NCAA Tournament they scored just 13 goals in their four games, including two with the empty net in the championship against Minnesota State. With less-sound goaltending throughout this year compared to that 2022 squad, it's never a sure thing with the top offense in the country. Even so, scoring nearly five goals a game should give Denver confidence.

#5 - Maine Black Bears

Record: 23-11-2 Overall, 14-9-1 in Conference Play

Conference Finish: 3rd in Regular Season, T-3rd in Postseason

Goals/Game: 3.28/game (T-13th in NCAA)

Goals Against/Game: 2.53/game (T-10th)

Shots For, Against/Game: 32.75 for, 25.31 against (T-10th, T-9th)

Power Play: 21.9% (T-23rd)

Penalty Kill: 80.5% (T-27th)

Top Scorer: Bradly Nadeau, Freshman, Forward; 19 G - 27 A - 46 P

Top Goalie: Albin Boija, Freshman; 10-6-1, 2.01 GAA, .916 SV%, and 2 SO

Three Players to Know:

- Harrison Scott, Senior, Forward; 14 G - 12 A - 26 P

Scott is a first-line center and the only Maine player outside of the Nadeau brothers to post double-digit goals this season. He scored a hat trick vs. UMass-Lowell back in January as part of a five-point weekend.

- Albin Boija, Freshman, Goaltender; 10-6-1, 2.01 GAA, .916 SV%, 2 SO

After splitting time with senior Victor Ostman, the freshman Boija has started the team's last eight games. He posted an 18-save shutout against rival New Hampshire in the Hockey East quarterfinals.

- David Breazeale, Junior, Defenseman; 2 G - 7 A - 9 P, 42 Shot Blocks

The 6'4" defenseman posted a career-best +11 this season, and leads the Black Bears with 42 blocked shots.

Biggest X-Factor: Home vs. Road Record

In one of the biggest program resurgences in the country this season, Maine but themselves back on the map with a 14-2-2 record at the Alfond this season. The Black Bears hosted sellout after sellout as thousands watched their fans play towards their first NCAA tournament appearance in 12 years (they would have qualified in 2020).

But despite a .833 winning percentage at home, Maine is still a two seed this year after posting a .500 record on the road. That included going 2-4-0 in their last six road games of the regular season. We should note, Maine is 1-1 in their two neutral-site games this season.

It's still unclear how exactly their home-road split will play into effect throughout the tournament. The good news is Black Bears' fans are excited to see their team back in the NCAAs, so many should make the drive from Maine to Springfield to try and make Mass Mutual Arena the "Alfond South."

Why They Can Win It All: Nadeau/Nadeau Connection

The most electric scoring duo in the country is a pair of freshman brothers who play for the Black Bears. Josh and Bradly Nadeau have combined for 91 points for Maine so far this season (37 goals and 54 assists) and have completely revitalized the team's offensive attack.

What's most impressive about the Nadeau brothers is their ability to find each other on the ice. 20 times this season one has scored, and the other tallied the primary assist. The most mind-blowing stat from the pair this season came back in early December. On Friday night Josh scored three goals, and Bradly got three primary assists. Then on Sunday, Bradly scored a hat trick and Josh got the three primary assists. I can't remember the last time two players did that in back-to-back games, let alone a pair of brothers.

A team needs a lot to win it all in April, like good goaltending and special teams play. But what gets lost when filling out the brackets is the star power that some of these teams have, the players that can seemingly will their team to a win. Josh and Bradly are 100% in that category this season.

#12 - Cornell Big Red

Record: 21-6-6 Overall, 12-6-4 in Conference Play

Conference Finish: 2nd in Regular Season, 1st in Postseason

Goals/Game: 3.36/game (T-11th in NCAA)

Goals Against/Game: 1.88/game (T-1st)

Shots For, Against/Game: 27.42 for, 22.55 against (T-52nd, 1st)

Power Play: 18.5% (41st)

Penalty Kill: 79.4% (T-36th)

Top Scorer: Gabriel Seger, Senior, Forward; 14 G - 28 A - 42 P

Top Goalie: Ian Shane, Junior; 21-4-6, 1.70 GAA, .922 SV%, 3 SO

Three Players to Know:

- Kyle Penney, Junior, Forward; 9 G - 17 A - 26 P

Penney is Cornell's captain and a defensive stud on the first line. The left winger leads Cornell in plus/minus (+29), has 27 shot blocks, and was a finalist for ECAC Defensive Forward of the Year.

- John Castagna, Freshman, Forward; 11 G - 14 A - 25 P

The Coyotes' third-round draft pick is one of four players with double digit goals this season. He has five points in in last five games, including two goals in last Saturday's ECAC Championship game.

- Hank Kempf, Junior, Defenseman; 1 G - 7 A - 8 P

The top-pair defenseman leads the Big Red in blocked shots this season (59). Kempf is +34 in his three-year career with Cornell.

Biggest X-Factor: Neutral Ice Experience

It's not often a team gets five games at neutral sites before the start of the NCAA tournament, but Cornell had a strange season. They beat now #2 Boston University at Red Hot Hockey at Madison Square Garden, played two games in Lake Placid during the Adirondack Winter Invitational, and won two games during last weekend's ECAC playoffs.

During those five games, Cornell went 3-0-2 and averaged 2.00 goals against/game. It is a small thing, but for players to get into a routine of playing in a different rink in front of a "neutral" crowd allows them to focus more on the regional game(s) this weekend.

You can expect that as the host, Massachusetts' fans will dominate the other three teams in attendance. Cornell's game against Maine should be closer to 50/50 between Big Red and Black Bears' fans, as both universities are over four hours away from Springfield.

Why They Can Win It All: Goaltending

Although he isn't a top-three finalist for this year's Mike Richter Award, goaltender Ian Shane would likely be the next man on the list. The junior leads the NCAA in GAA (1.70) and is top ten in wins (21), shutouts (3), and save percentage (.922%).

There are a lot of similarities between last year's Cornell team and this year's. Both squads are in the top three in both goals allowed/game (1.88, T-1st this season) and shots allowed/game (22.55 against/game this year, 1st). Last year's Big Red team upset #4 Denver with a 2-0 win. This year's team has a chance for a rematch with Denver in the regional final.

Shane and Cornell have allowed more than two goals in just four games since December 2nd. That stretch includes games against other tournament teams like Quinnipiac and Massachusetts. It's a 'Catch-22' with the Big Red. Either you don't get shots on net, or Ian Shane makes 30+ saves. Either way, good luck scoring.

#14 - Massachusetts Minutemen

Record: 20-13-3 Overall, 12-10-2 in Conference Play

Conference Finish: T-5th in Regular Season, T-3rd in Postseason

Goals/Game: 2.97/game (T-23rd)

Goals Against/Game: 2.86/game (T-28th)

Shots For, Against/Game: 28.39 for, 29.19 against (44th, 32nd)

Power Play: 19.5% (34th)

Penalty Kill: 76.5% (51st)

Top Scorer: Scott Morrow, Junior, Defenseman; 6 G - 24 A - 30 P

Top Goalie: Michael Hrabal, Freshman; 16-11-1, 2.66 GAA, .910 SV%, 2 SO

Three Players to Know:

- Ryan Ufko, Junior, Defenseman; 10 G - 16 A - 26 P

One of two star defenseman on Massachusetts this season, Ufko is the team captain and named to the All-Hockey East First-Team. He was also a finalist for conference player of the year.

- Jack Musa, Freshman, Forward; 12 G - 17 A - 29 P

The Minutemen have a lot of young scoring depth. That includes Musa, who's tied for the team lead in goals as a freshman.

- Aydar Suniev, Freshman, Forward; 12 G - 13 A - 25 P

Suniev is another freshman tied for that lead, but is more boom-or-bust than his fellow left winger. 20% of his points this season came in one game, when he went for two goals and three assists against Alaska-Anchorage.

Biggest X-Factor: Last At-Large Team In

There always seems to be something in the air with the last at-large team to make the NCAA tournament. In the last 11 years, four different "last in" teams have made the Frozen Four, and three have won the national championship (Yale in '13, Providence in '15, and Minnesota-Duluth in '18). That Bulldogs team made it by .0001 in the RPI and won four one-goal games to win the title. This year the Minutemen will look to become the first team since Minnesota-Duluth to win a game as the last team in. 

Massachusetts made the tournament after a dramatic final day of games, beating out Colorado College by .0004 in RPI. It wasn't clear who would make it until late Saturday night, when rival Denver won the NCHC Championship game to knock CC out of the final at-large spot.

Why They Can Win It All: Hosting Regional, Battle Tested

Just like Omaha listed above, the Minutemen are also hosting a regional this weekend. They get an even greater advantage with Mass Mutual Arena located just 30 minutes away from campus. With 8,000 seats and three nearby teams, the regional should be one of the most well attended of the weekend.

Massachusetts gets to take advantage of hosting a "home" game as the four seed in their own region, taking on #3 Denver in the first round. Because the Pioneers are the top seed, they can expect all three others fanbases to cheer against them in their game. That's a big geographical and emotional advantage that the Minutemen can utilize to potentially post an upset.

Massachusetts has played the hardest schedule among any of the other four seeds this season (15th toughest in the NCAA), mainly because of being in the Hockey East. They've played 11 games against other NCAA Tournament teams. Although they went just 1-8-2 in those games, UMass knows what to expect heading into two possible games against top-12 opponents.

Maryland Heights, MO Regional: 29-31

#4 - Michigan State Spartans

Record: 24-9-3 Overall, 16-6-2 in Conference Play

Conference Finish: 1st in Regular Season, 1st in Postseason

Goals/Game: 3.89/game (T-6th in NCAA)

Goals Against/Game: 3.00/game (T-32nd)

Shots For, Against/Game: 35.92 for, 34.67 against (T-3rd, 59th)

Power Play: 26.2% (7th)

Penalty Kill: 80.6% (T-25th)

Top Scorer: Artyom Levshunov, Freshman, Defenseman; 9 G - 25 A - 34 P

Top Goalie: Trey Augustine, Freshman; 22-8-2, 2.88 GAA, .918 SV%, and 3 SO

Three Players to Know:

- Artyom Levshunov, Freshman, Defenseman; 9 G - 25 A - 34 P

Levshunov was a finalist for the Big Ten player of the year award, and leads Michigan State in assists (25) and points (34) as a freshman. His +26 plus/minus rating is tied for fifth-best in the country among defenseman.

- Isaac Howard, Sophomore, Forward; 8 G - 25 A - 33 P

The sophomore transfer has a point in seven of his last eight games heading into the tournament. Howard scored two goals and won a gold medal in this year's World Junior's Championship game for Team USA against Sweden.

- Trey Augustine, Freshman, Goaltender; 22-8-2, 2.88 GAA, .918 SV%, 3 SO

Another member of this year's Team USA World Junior's team, Augustine leads all freshman goaltenders this season with 1,049 saves. The Red Wings' draft pick is in great form (7-2-0, 2.28 GAA, .935 SV% in last nine games) heading into his first NCAA Tournament.

Biggest X-Factor: Transfer Portal Success

At the beginning of the year, we wrote about four transfers coming into Michigan State this year that could take the next step: Joey Larson (previous team Northern Michigan), Reed Lebster (Massachusetts), Isaac Howard (Minnesota-Duluth), and Red Savage (Miami).

Last season, those four combined for 80 points at their respective schools. This year, that quartet combined for 109 points (39 goals, 70 assists). Larson led the team with 15 total goals and seven on the power play, while three of the four posted at least 26 points on the season. We should note that a fifth transfer, defenseman James Crossman, played just five games this season, so the Spartans didn't go 5-for-5.

The transfer portal is an integral part of the college hockey landscape in today's game, and the success that Michigan State had from those players this year is a big reason why they're the top team in their regional.

Why They Can Win It All: Depth Scoring

Those four players are all key to Michigan State's offensive success this year. Like #3 Denver, the Spartans have 12 players scoring at a 0.50/game or better mark. That includes all nine of the forwards on Michigan State's top three lines and their top two defenseman.

Michigan State is one of two teams in the tournament (Massachusetts) to be led by a defenseman in scoring. Artyom Levshunov, a projected top-five pick in this summer's NHL Draft, is playing at a near point-per game pace through his first 36 career games. He has a quick shot from the blue line that can fool goaltenders, especially with a body in front of the net.

A team like Sparty is so difficult to play against in the tournament because you can't just shut down one of their players, or even a top line. An example of this was last week in the Big Ten Championship game against rival Michigan, when fourth-line winger Tanner Kelly scored twice and freshman defenseman Patrick Geary scored in overtime to help lead MSU to a win. You need players from all over the ice to step up to move on in this tournament. Michigan State can get a goal from seemingly anyone in the lineup on any given shift.

#6 - North Dakota Fighting Hawks

Record: 26-11-2 Overall, 15-8-1 in Conference Play

Conference Finish: 1st in Regular Season, T-3rd in Postseason

Goals/Game: 3.79/game (8th in NCAA)

Goals Against/Game: 2.59/game (T-18th)

Shots For, Against/Game: 30.87 for, 26.44 against (T-19th, 11th)

Power Play: 25.7% (9th)

Penalty Kill: 81.6% (22nd)

Top Scorer: Jackson Blake, Sophomore, Forward; 21 G - 38 A - 59 P

Top Goalie: Ludvig Persson, Senior; 21-10-2, 2.47 GAA, .906 SV%, and 5 SO

Three Players to Know: 

- Jackson Blake, So., Forward; 21 G - 38 A - 59 P

"Hobey Blaker" outpaces every Fighting Hawk in points (21 more than any other skater), and is averaging 1.76 points/game since January 1st. He broke the NCHC scoring record with 37 points in 24 games, and was named conference player of the year.

- Riese Gaber, Sr., Forward; 18 G - 16 A - 34 P

Gaber, North Dakota's captain, is tied for the NCAA lead in career goals among active players with 64. He makes his living from the left circle on the Fighting Hawks' power play, and has 8 PPG this season.

- Bennet Zmolek, Jr., Defenseman; 0 G - 8 A - 8 P

Zmolek is one of four defensive transfers amid a fully revamped defense for UND this season. He led the NCHC in blocked shots with 89 in 32 games.

Biggest X-Factor: One-Goal Games

Before getting swept on the road to Colorado College in mid-February, this year's North Dakota team set a program-record with 21-straight games without a regulation loss from November 4th to February 3rd. Very impressive, only blemished by four overtime losses -- including two to CC -- in that same stretch.

Granted, North Dakota still went 3-4-1 in 3-on-3 overtime and 4-6 in one-goal games this season (they also had three wins with an empty-net goal). But compared to other top teams like Boston College [8-3 in one-goal games], Boston University [8-5], Denver [7-4], and Michigan State [7-2], that stat appears mediocre amid an overall great season for the Fighting Hawks.

North Dakota might need to exercise some overtime demons if they want to improve those close-game stats. Since NoDak's championship win in 2016, all three of their tournament appearances ended in an overtime loss. In 2017 they lost in 2OT to Boston University. In 2021 they lost in 5OT in an instant-classic against Minnesota-Duluth (both of those games they were the regional host in Fargo). Then a year later they lost to Notre Dame in overtime 2-1. Just seven players remain with North Dakota from that loss to the Fighting Irish in 2022. Some of them, including Gaber, are likely ready to get UND over the hump.

Why They Can Win It All: Defense, Last Line Change

As mentioned above, this North Dakota defense is comprised of ten new players on the backend, eight defensemen and two goalies. That includes five transfers and freshmen each, which first-year coach Dillon Simpson (along with the rest of the coaching staff) has turned into a top defensive team from top to bottom. The Fighting Hawks are top 20 in the NCAA in both goals against/game (2.59, T-18th) and shots against/game (26.44, 11th).

That starts with 541 blocked shots this year, which ranks second among tournament teams. It's not just the defenseman getting in front of pucks either. 15 different players, including stars Jackson Blake and Riese Gaber, have posted double-digits blocks this season.

As a two seed, North Dakota is also guaranteed at least one game with the last line change. Throughout the year they've used their third line of Dylan James, Jake Schmaltz, and Louis Jamernik V to shut down their opponents' top playmakers. In three-straight home series to end the regular season, the Fighting Hawks held Denver's Massimo Rizzo and Jack Devine (one combined point), UMD's Ben Steeves (0 points), and WMU's Luke Grainger (0 points) in check for the entire weekend. In the NCHC playoffs they kept both Miami's top scorer Matthew Barbolini and Omaha's Tanner Ludtke off the scoresheet as well. It didn't matter much in the second game, as the Fighting Hawks lost 6-3, but it shows that a team with one scoring line may have issues against NoDak.

#10 - Michigan Wolverines

Record: 21-14-2 Overall, 11-11-2 in Conference Play

Conference Finish: 4th in Regular Season, 2nd in Postseason

Goals/Game: 4.21/game (3rd in NCAA)

Goals Against/Game: 3.05/game (T-38th)

Shots For, Against/Game: 35.00 for, 30.26 against (6th, T-38th)

Power Play: 35.3% (1st)

Penalty Kill: 78.5% (40th)

Top Scorer: Rutger McGroarty, Sophomore, Forward; 16 G - 36 A - 52 P

Top Goalie: Jake Barczewski, Graduate Senior; 18-13-3, 2.83 GAA, .907 SV%, and 2 SO

Three Players to Know:

- Seamus Casey, Sophomore, Defenseman; 7 G - 38 A - 45 P

Casey leads all NCAA defenseman with 38 assists, and trails only Zeev Buium (Denver) and Lane Hutson (Boston University) in total points from the blue line.

- Dylan Duke, Junior, Forward; 22 G - 22 A - 44 P

The Wolverines block a very healthy number of shots (13.5/game) thanks to players like Dylan Duke. The junior has 46 blocks to go along with 44 points this season.

- Gavin Brindley, Sophomore, Forward; 24 G - 27 A - 51 P

After 38 points last season, Brindley returned to Michigan and leads the teams in goals (24). His blistering 21.5% shot percentage ranks 5th in the country among players with 20+ goals.

Biggest X-Factor: Special Teams

The Wolverines power play has been on a tear in the second half of the season, scoring 26 power play goals in 20 games (26/66, 39.4%). That includes a six game heater back in January where Michigan averaged over two such goals per game, going 15-for-27 (55.5%) on the PP over a 4-2-0 stretch to jumpstart their NCAA tournament run.

Ahead of Boston College, Michigan's top-ranked power play (35.3%) has scored four more goals than the Eagles despite getting 15 less chances 5-on-4. However, unlike top-ranked BC, there is an issue with the Wolverines' special teams. Their penalty kill has a success rate of just 78.5%, good for 40th in the country this season. That's worse than 11 other teams in this year's tournament (only Michigan Tech, Omaha, Denver, and Massachusetts have worse PK numbers).

The disparity in special teams' numbers is an issue, something that their opponent North Dakota might be able to exploit in their opening-round game. The Fighting Hawks average just 7.7 penalty minutes/game this season -- good for 7th in the country -- while Michigan averages 12.8/game (T-52nd), a difference of over two minor penalties per game. A likely focus for the Wolverines on Friday night will be staying out of the penalty box.

Why They Can Win It All: High-End Offensive Talent

Similar to last year's team which included Hobey Baker winner Adam Fantilli (30-35-65) and current NHL defenseman Luke Hughes (10-38-48), this year's Michigan team also is loaded with high-end talent. Five players have 40+ points, and five have 16+ goals. The Wolverines are led by sophomore forwards Rutger McGroarty and Gavin Brindley, who have combined for 103 points on the top line this season. 

McGroarty leads the Wolverines with 52 points despite missing five games back in November due to injury. Since then he has played at a near two-point/game pace (34 in 20 GP), and is entering the tournament on an eight-game point streak.

From top to bottom, the Wolverines' top two lines are stacked. The six forwards have combined for 230 total points this season. Then on the back end you have Seamus Casey, the NCAA leader in assists this season (38 total, averaging one/game). It's no wonder that Michigan is top ten in nearly every major offensive statistic: goals/game, power play %, shots/game, shot percentage.

#13 - Western Michigan Broncos

Record: 21-15-1 Overall, 11-13-0 in Conference Play

Conference Finish: 6th in Regular Season, T-5th in Postseason

Goals/Game: 3.57/game (9th in NCAA)

Goals Against/Game: 2.49/game (T-10th)

Shots For, Against/Game: 36.03 for, 25.32 against (2nd, T-9th)

Power Play: 21.3% (27th)

Penalty Kill: 84.0% (T-10th)

Top Scorer: Luke Grainger, Senior, Forward; 14 G - 33 A - 47 P

Top Goalie: Cameron Rowe, Senior; 21-15-1, 2.41 GAA, .905 SV%, and 2 SO

Three Players to Know:

- Dylan Wendt, Junior, Forward; 23 G - 20 A - 43 P

After nine goals his first two seasons, Wendt has exploded for 23 in 37 games in 2023-'24. He has a blistering 27.1% shot percentage, which is first in the country among players with 20+ goals.

- Alex Bump, Freshman, Forward; 13 G - 21 A - 34 P

The former Vermont commit switched to WMU late in the transfer window (August 14, 2023) and has taken awhile to get going this season, but is heating up at the right time. He has a point in 12 of his last 16 games, including four multi-point nights.

- Tim Washe, Senior, Forward; 2 G - 10 A - 12 P

The senior is a big body (6'3", 210 lbs.) and one of the best faceoff winners in the NCHC. He had 413 this season at a 60.3% win rate, and has nearly 1,000 in his career.

Biggest X-Factor: Nonconference Play

Western Michigan had a very strange season. They began the year 11-3-1, including wins over other tournament teams like #3 Denver and #11 Omaha. But after the midway mark of the season the Broncos posted just two sweeps -- both at home against Lindenwood and Miami -- and had just one three-game winning streak.

After a season in which they finished 6th in the regular season, you might be wondering why Western Michigan made the tournament over a team like Colorado College who placed 4th. It has to do with the Broncos' nonconference slate. WMU went 9-0-1 this season against non-NCHC opponents, and even though they rank 23rd in strength of schedule this season, those nine wins were critical in qualifying Western for their third-straight tournament appearance. Although they didn't come against the toughest of competition, an undefeated record heading into the NCAAs has to be a good confidence boost for Pat Ferschweiler and his squad.

Why They Can Win It All: Shots On Goal

Western Michigan is a team that likes to get the puck to the net. Led by Alex Bump (155 shots) and Sam Colangelo (154), the Broncos lead all tournament teams in shots on goals/game with 36.0, and trail only Penn State for the most in the country this season.

Those numbers, along with a top ten mark in shots against/game (25.32/game), mean that Western Michigan has an outstanding Corsi For Percentage. At 60.5%, that means they're firing six out of every ten shots in the game at the other team's net. That mark trails only Quinnipiac (60.6%) for first in the country. Western is also a top ten team in the faceoff dot, meaning they dominate the possession game.

You need to get the puck on net to score, and WMU may capitalize against a team that has given up a lot of shots in the first round. Michigan State is sixth-worst in the country in shots allowed/game this season (34.7/game), but fire a lot back of their own.