Previewing the NCAA Tournament: Version 5.0

  By alex berger - march 09, 2023

Is anyone else counting down the days until regional weekend? Although it's not the same as it once was (I miss having six games on that Saturday), the weekend is one of the most electric weekends in the sport. In under two weeks we will officially know which 16 teams are in, and where they're playing.

From last week there's only been one change; Notre Dame is out (and likely for the rest of the season) and Merrimack is in. Michigan State, Northeastern, and Omaha remain right on the bubble.

How The NCAA Tournament Field Is Determined

16 teams qualify for the NCAA tournament every year. Automatic bids are given to the conference postseason champions, and the other "at large" bids are calculated through the Pairwise. That is, long-story short, a mathematical system that ranks teams based on their record, their opponent's record, and their opponent's opponent's records.

This year, the four regional sites (teams hosting) are in Allentown, Pennsylvania (Penn State), Bridgeport, Connecticut (Yale), Fargo, North Dakota (North Dakota), and Manchester, New Hampshire (New Hampshire). If any of the hosting teams qualify for the tournament, they will be automatically placed at their regional site. The four regional winners go to the Frozen Four, which is in Tampa, Florida this year.

In the past, the NCAA tournament selection committee has placed teams at certain regional sites in order to increase attendance. However they also have to balance this with keeping bracket integrity as much as possible (i.e. #1 seed plays #16, #2 plays #15, etc.). Conference matchups are also avoided in the first round of the tournament, which causes matchups to occasionally flip.

Teams have to have a .500 or better record in at least 20 games against Division 1 opponents to be eligible for an at-large bid.

The Current Field

So, let's start looking at who would be in the tournament if the season ended today. I'm taking rankings based on Sunday, March 5. Although anything can happen in the postseason, to make it easier I will use the highest remaining seed in each respective conference tournament.

Automatic Bids: RIT (Atlantic Hockey, #21), Minnesota (Big Ten, #1), Minnesota State (CCHA, #12), Quinnipiac (ECAC, #2), Boston University (Hockey East, #5), and Denver (NCHC, #3).

Six teams earn automatic bids, which means the next ten highest ranked teams in the Pairwise earn "at-large" bids. Here is the current top-20 in the Pairwise, credit to College Hockey News.

"At-Large" Bids: Michigan, Harvard, St. Cloud State, Penn State, Western Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan Tech, Alaska, Cornell, and Merrimack.

We've got our 16 teams. As it stands, the first four teams out would be Michigan State, Northeastern, Omaha, and Notre Dame.

Putting Together The Regionals

Now we can start ranking the 16 qualifying teams by seeds using the Pairwise rankings. The top four teams are #1 seeds, next four are #2 seeds, and so on. 

#1 Seeds (1-4): Minnesota (#1), Quinnipiac (#2), Denver (#3), and Michigan (#4).

#2 Seeds (5-8): Boston University (#5), Harvard (#6), St. Cloud State (#7), and Penn State (#8).

#3 Seeds (9-12): Western Michigan (#9), Ohio State (#10), Michigan Tech (#11), and Minnesota State (#12).

#4 Seeds (13-16): Alaska (#13), Cornell (#14), Merrimack (#15), and RIT (#16).

Next step, matching up teams to keep tournament integrity. We've got eight games in the first round, placed in four different regionals:

Regional 1: #1 Minnesota vs. #16 RIT, #8 Penn State vs. #9 Western Michigan.

Regional 2: #2 Quinnipiac vs. #15 Merrimack, #7 St. Cloud State vs. #10 Ohio State.

Regional 3: #3 Denver vs. #14 Cornell, #6 Harvard vs. #11 Michigan Tech.

Regional 4: #4 Michigan vs. #13 Alaska, #5 Boston University vs. #12 Minnesota State.

Placing one seeds first, we want to do everything in our power to put Minnesota in Fargo and Quinnipiac in Bridgeport. However, to do this we have to move Penn State out of both of their regionals. What we can do is rearrange the two seeds to also put St. Cloud in Fargo, skyrocketing attendance at that regional. However, that would cause a conference matchup in the first round. We'll fix that by swapping Western Michigan and Ohio State. When all is said and done we're left with these regionals.

Regional 1: #1 Minnesota vs. #16 RIT, #7 St. Cloud State vs. #10 Ohio State.

Regional 2: #2 Quinnipiac vs. #15 Merrimack, #6 Harvard  vs. #9 Western Michigan.

Regional 3: #3 Denver vs. #14 Cornell, #8 Penn State vs. #11 Michigan Tech.

Regional 4: #4 Michigan vs. #13 Alaska, #5 Boston University vs. #12 Minnesota State.

When determining regional sites, the committee (usually) recognizes that driving is easier for teams and fans. However, once flying has been determined, it doesn't necessarily matter where that team is flying to. Reminder, there are three east regionals (Allentown, Bridgeport, and Manchester) and just one West regional (Fargo) this year.

As mentioned above, we're going to place Minnesota/RIT and St. Cloud/Ohio State in Fargo. The top two seeds in this regional both get to drive, which is as big an advantage for the regional atmosphere as it is for the teams themselves.

Next, we'll put Quinnipiac/Merrimack and Harvard/Western Michigan in Bridgeport. As a bonus from all of our shifting, we now have three teams within 2.5 hours, including the Bobcats who are just 30 minutes away. This would be the spot to be in a few weekends.

Denver/Cornell and Penn State/Michigan Tech is easy to place, as the Nittany Lions are the host in Allentown. Denver draws the short end of the stick having to potentially play a regional final "on the road," but they do play a weaker team in terms of seeding.

Finally, that leaves Michigan/Alaska and Boston University/Minnesota State in Manchester. BU would no doubt bring some fans, as they're just 90 minutes away, but the rest of the regional would suffer attendance wise.

The Final Result

Fargo, ND: #1 Minnesota vs. #16 RIT, #7 St. Cloud State vs. #10 Ohio State.

Bridgeport, CT: #2 Quinnipiac vs. #15 Merrimack, #6 Harvard  vs. #9 Western Michigan.

Allentown, PA: #3 Denver vs. #14 Cornell, #8 Penn State vs. #11 Michigan Tech.

Manchester, NH: #4 Michigan vs. #13 Alaska, #5 Boston University vs. #12 Minnesota State.

It's becoming a bit more solidified at the top. Since starting this series I've placed Quinnipiac in Bridgeport four of five times and Minnesota in Fargo all five times. Again, this is the field the selection committee hopes to work with come tournament time. We keep bracket integrity in the #1/#4 matchups and in the Manchester regional while also maximizing attendance. Plus, does anyone else see a path for Alaska to make the Frozen Four? I won't pick them this time, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the Nanooks made a run. Give me Minnesota, Quinnipiac, Denver, and Boston University to make it to Tampa.