Previewing the NCAA Bracket: Version 4.0

Written by alex berger - february 28, 2023

We're flying into the danger zone in this week's NCAA bracket projection. For the first time since Arizona State in 2019, an independent would qualify for the 16-team tournament. That team? The Alaska Nanooks, who are 20-10-2 and have won 10 of their last 12 games.

From last week, Omaha and Northeastern are out and replaced by Notre Dame and Alaska.

How The NCAA Tournament Field Is Determined

16 teams qualify for the NCAA tournament every year. Automatic bids are given to the conference postseason champions, and the other "at large" bids are calculated through the Pairwise. That is, long-story short, a mathematical system that ranks teams based on their record, their opponent's record, and their opponent's opponent's records.

This year, the four regional sites (teams hosting) are in Allentown, Pennsylvania (Penn State), Bridgeport, Connecticut (Yale), Fargo, North Dakota (North Dakota), and Manchester, New Hampshire (New Hampshire). If any of the hosting teams qualify for the tournament, they will be automatically placed at their regional site. The four regional winners go to the Frozen Four, which is in Tampa, Florida this year.

In the past, the NCAA tournament selection committee has placed teams at certain regional sites in order to increase attendance. However they also have to balance this with keeping bracket integrity as much as possible (i.e. #1 seed plays #16, #2 plays #15, etc.). Conference matchups are also avoided in the first round of the tournament, which causes matchups to occasionally flip.

Teams have to have a .500 or better record in at least 20 games against Division 1 opponents to be eligible for an at-large bid. This could affect a few teams this season (Notre Dame: #14 in Pairwise, 15-14-5 record, and Michigan State: #19 in Pairwise, 16-16-2 record).

The Current Field

So, let's start looking at who would be in the tournament if the season ended today. I'm taking rankings based on Sunday, February 26. Although anything can happen in the postseason, to make it easier I will use who is currently leading their respective conferences as champions.

Automatic Bids: RIT (Atlantic Hockey, #22), Minnesota (Big Ten, #1), Minnesota State (CCHA, #15), Quinnipiac (ECAC, #2), Boston University (Hockey East, #6), and Denver (NCHC, #3).

Six teams earn automatic bids, which means the next ten highest ranked teams in the Pairwise earn "at-large" bids. Here is the current top-20 in the Pairwise, credit to College Hockey News.

"At-Large" Bids: Michigan, St. Cloud State, Harvard, Penn State, Ohio State, Western Michigan, Michigan Tech, Alaska, Cornell, and Notre Dame.

We've got our 16 teams. As it stands, the first four teams out would be Omaha, Northeastern, Merrimack, and Michigan State.

Putting Together The Regionals

Now we can start ranking the 16 qualifying teams by seeds using the Pairwise rankings. The top four teams are #1 seeds, next four are #2 seeds, and so on. 

#1 Seeds (1-4): #1 Minnesota, #2 Quinnipiac, #3 Denver, and #4 Michigan.

#2 Seeds (5-8): #5 St. Cloud State, #6 Boston University, #7 Harvard, and #8 Penn State

#3 Seeds (9-12): #9 Ohio State, #10 Western Michigan, #11 Michigan Tech, and #12 Alaska

#4 Seeds (13-16): #13 Cornell, #14 Notre Dame, #15 Minnesota State, and #16 RIT

Next step, matching up teams to keep tournament integrity. We've got eight games in the first round, placed in four different regionals:

Regional 1: #1 Minnesota vs. #16 RIT, #8 Penn State vs. #9 Ohio State

Regional 2: #2 Quinnipiac vs. #15 Minnesota State, #7 Harvard vs. #10 Western Michigan

Regional 3: #3 Denver vs. #14 Notre Dame, #6 Boston University vs. #11 Michigan Tech

Regional 4: #4 Michigan vs. #13 Cornell, #5 St. Cloud State vs. #12 Alaska

We've got one issue that's really two issues with this current bracket. #8 Penn State/#9 Ohio State is a conference matchup. Usually, you could just swap #9 with #10 Western Michigan to solve the issue, however because Penn State is a regional host that would send Minnesota to Allentown and we want them to avoid what could be considered a road environment.

We can also avoid the same issue with #2 Quinnipiac by sending Penn State to Denver's region and shuffling the other two seeds. I think the committee can justify the changes to bracket integrity just from the attendance boost alone (Minnesota would be in Fargo, Quinnipiac/Boston University would be in Bridgeport, and Penn State/Notre Dame would be in Allentown). We're left with this bracket:

Regional 1: #1 Minnesota vs. #16 RIT, #7 Harvard vs. #9 Ohio State

Regional 2: #2 Quinnipiac vs. #15 Minnesota State, #6 Boston University vs. #10 Western Michigan

Regional 3: #3 Denver vs. #14 Notre Dame, #8 Penn State vs. #11 Michigan Tech

Regional 4: #4 Michigan vs. #13 Cornell, #5 St. Cloud State vs. #12 Alaska

When determining regional sites, the committee (usually) recognizes that driving is easier for teams and fans. However, once flying has been determined, it doesn't necessarily matter where that team is flying to. Reminder, there are three east regionals (Allentown, Bridgeport, and Manchester) and just one West regional (Fargo) this year.

Denver/Notre Dame and Penn State/Michigan Tech go to Allentown as the Nittany Lions are the regional host. Denver and Michigan Tech get an advantage from a Pairwise standpoint, however those even out with the fact that Penn State will have "home-field advantage."

Minnesota/RIT and Harvard/Ohio State go to Fargo. You get certain benefits as the #1 team in the country, which includes some shuffling throughout the rest of the tournament to stay at the closest regional.

Next up, we get to place Quinnipiac/Minnesota State and Boston University/Western Michigan in Bridgeport. Last week we factored bracket integrity over attendance. This time around we moved Penn State lower than we could've/should've/would've to place the #2 seed just 30 minutes away from their campus.

Finally, that leaves Michigan/Cornell and St. Cloud State/Alaska in Manchester. Everyone, welcome the Nanooks into the picture. This would be their first official tournament appearance since 2010 where they lost a tight 3-1 battle to the eventual champion that season, Boston College. Despite the storylines, this bracket will most likely have the worst attendance of the four.

The Final Result

Fargo, ND: #1 Minnesota vs. #16 RIT, #7 Harvard vs. #9 Ohio State

Bridgeport, CT: #2 Quinnipiac vs. #15 Minnesota State, #6 Boston University vs. #10 Western Michigan

Allentown, PA: #3 Denver vs. #14 Notre Dame, #8 Penn State vs. #11 Michigan Tech

Manchester, NH: #4 Michigan vs. #13 Cornell, #5 St. Cloud State vs. #12 Alaska

We have an almost night-and-day difference in projected attendance between last week's bracket and this one. Plus, we an absolute gauntlet in Bridgeport. All three games there would be must-watch TV. Postseason hockey will show a lot out of these 16 teams, however give me Minnesota, Quinnipiac, Denver and St. Cloud State to make it to the Frozen Four out of this week's projected bracket.