Previewing the NCAA Bracket: Version 1.0
By Alex Berger Feb 01, 2023It's never too early to start looking ahead to the NCAA Tournament (regional weekend will be here in less than eight weeks). Although there is still a lot to be determined, the tournament field is starting to form. In this post we'll analyze the teams who would be in if the season ended today and where I think they'll be placed.
How The NCAA Tournament Field Is Determined
16 teams qualify for the NCAA tournament every year. Automatic bids are given to the conference postseason champions, and the other "at large" bids are calculated through the Pairwise. That is, long-story short, a mathematical system that ranks teams based on their record, their opponent's record, and their opponent's opponent's records.
This year, the four regional sites (teams hosting) are in Allentown, Pennsylvania (Penn State), Bridgeport, Connecticut (Yale), Fargo, North Dakota (North Dakota), and Manchester, New Hampshire (New Hampshire). If any of the hosting teams qualify for the tournament, they will be automatically placed at their regional site. The four regional winners go to the Frozen Four, which is in Tampa, Florida this year.
In the past, the NCAA tournament selection committee has placed teams at certain regional sites in order to increase attendance. However they also have to balance this with keeping bracket integrity as much as possible (i.e. #1 seed plays #16, #2 plays #15, etc.). Conference matchups are also avoided in the first round of the tournament, which causes matchups to occasionally flip.
The Current Field
Let's start looking at who would be in the tournament if the season ended today. I'm taking rankings based on Sunday, January 29. Although anything can happen in the postseason, to make it easier I will use who is currently leading their respective conferences as champions.
Automatic Bids: RIT (#17), Minnesota (#1), Minnesota State (#13), Quinnipiac (#2), Boston University (#3), and Denver (#7).
Six teams earn automatic bids, which means the next ten highest ranked teams in the Pairwise earn "at-large" bids. Here is the current top-20 in the Pairwise, credit to College Hockey News.
"At-Large" Bids: Michigan, St. Cloud State, Penn State, Ohio State, Harvard, Western Michigan, Cornell, Michigan Tech, Notre Dame, Omaha.
We've got our 16 teams, which includes five teams from the Big Ten and four from the NCHC. As it stands, the first four teams out would be Connecticut, Michigan State, Northeastern, and North Dakota.
Putting Together The Regionals
Now we can start ranking the qualified teams by seeds. The top four teams are #1 seeds, next four are #2 seeds, and so on.
#1 Seeds (1-4): Minnesota, Quinnipiac, Boston University, and Michigan.
#2 Seeds (5-8): St. Cloud State, Penn State, Denver, and Ohio State.
#3 Seeds (9-12): Harvard, Western Michigan, Cornell, and Michigan Tech.
#4 Seeds (13-16): Minnesota State, Notre Dame, Omaha, and RIT.
Next step, matching up teams to keep tournament integrity. We've got eight games in the first round, placed in four different regionals:
Regional 1: #1 Minnesota vs. #16 RIT, #8 Ohio State vs. #9 Harvard
Regional 2: #2 Quinnipiac vs. #15 Omaha, #7 Denver vs. #10 Western Michigan
Regional 3: #3 Boston University vs. #14 Notre Dame, #6 Penn State vs. #11 Cornell
Regional 4: #4 Michigan vs. #13 Minnesota State, #5 St. Cloud State vs. #12 Michigan Tech
There is just one issue with the current bracket. #7 Denver vs. #10 Western Michigan is a conference matchup. To do this, we can swap Western Michigan with #11 Cornell. The committee may also choose to swap with #9 Harvard, however I believe this choice will help with attendance at Penn State's regional.
Regional 1: #1 Minnesota vs. #16 RIT, #8 Ohio State vs. #9 Harvard
Regional 2: #2 Quinnipiac vs. #15 Omaha, #7 Denver vs. #11 Cornell
Regional 3: #3 Boston University vs. #14 Notre Dame, #6 Penn State vs. #10 Western Michigan
Regional 4: #4 Michigan vs. #13 Minnesota State, #5 St. Cloud State vs. #12 Michigan Tech
When determining regional sites, the committee (usually) recognizes that driving is easier for teams and fans. However, once flying has been determined, it doesn't necessarily matter where that team is flying to. Reminder, there are three east regionals (Allentown, Bridgeport, and Manchester) and just one west regional (Fargo) this year.
The easiest region to place is Boston University/Notre Dame and Penn State/Western Michigan, as Penn State is automatically placed in Allentown. I decided to swap Western Michigan with Cornell earlier as this is the closest regional to Kalamazoo, Michigan (just under 10 hours). This still may be a flight for the team, but it's a manageable drive for Broncos fans.
Next up, we go down the list for top seeds. I'll place Minnesota/RIT and Ohio State/Harvard in Fargo. It's a drive for the Golden Gophers and it's an easy trip for the fans. RIT, Ohio State, and Harvard all have to fly, but no matter where the regional was going to be at least two of the four teams would have had to make a flight.
I'll place Quinnipiac/Omaha and Denver/Cornell in Bridgeport, as it's only a 30 minute drive for the Bobcats and just four hours from Cornell. Omaha and Denver would have to fly no matter where the regional, so this works the best for getting the most attendance.
Finally, Michigan/Minnesota State and St. Cloud State/Michigan Tech will be placed in Manchester. I debated between putting this regional in Fargo, however I decided to give the #1 team the advantage. This regional will probably suffer the most attendance wise, but at least one does every year in the current format.
The Final Result
Fargo, N.D.: #1 Minnesota vs. #16 RIT, #8 Ohio State vs. #9 Harvard
Bridgeport, CT: #2 Quinnipiac vs. #15 Omaha, #7 Denver vs. #11 Cornell
Allentown, PA: #3 Boston University vs. #14 Notre Dame, #6 Penn State vs. #10 Western Michigan
Manchester, NH: #4 Michigan vs. #13 Minnesota State, #5 St. Cloud State vs. #12 Michigan Tech
Although there is still a long way to go this season, this gives you a general idea of how the tournament might shape up in March. Just for fun, here are my picks to make it out of each regional and go to the Frozen Four: Minnesota, Denver, Boston University, and St. Cloud.
