ECH "Bracketology": Version 8.0
WRITTEN BY ALEX BERGER - march 14th, 2024It's officially the postseason! All six conferences have finished up their regular season schedules, and there's now only two weekends of games left before the week of the NCAA Tournament. Make sure to enjoy this time of year everyone.
From last week the biggest change you should know about is the addition of Omaha to the at-large bids. Not only did the Mavericks sweep their rival North Dakota for the first time, but the wins propelled them all the way up to #12 in the Pairwise. UNO is now in the driver's seat with their own NCAA Tournament destiny.
That's an important addition to the field, as the Mavericks are the host of this year's regional in Sioux Falls. Like we've been following for months with Massachusetts out east, a regional host can create some issues when it comes to seeding and team placement. It most directly impacts North Dakota, who now has the chance to be driven out of their nearest regional if the Pairwise falls right.
The biggest drop of the week was Wisconsin, who fell all the way to a three seed after a pair of losses to Ohio State in the Big Ten quarterfinal round. The Badgers are guaranteed to make the tournament, but will have to wait over two weeks before their next game. This week they are placed in a "regional of death," and will be a dangerous team to play in the first round.
- How The NCAA Tournament Field Is Determined
16 teams qualify for the NCAA tournament every year. Automatic bids are given to the conference postseason champions, and the other "at large" bids are calculated through the Pairwise. That is, long-story short, a mathematical system that ranks teams based on their record, their opponent's record, and their opponent's opponent's records.
This year, the four regional sites (teams hosting) are in Maryland Heights, Missouri (Lindenwood), Providence, Rhode Island (Brown), Sioux Falls, South Dakota (Omaha), and Springfield, Massachusetts (UMass). If any of the hosting teams qualify for the tournament, they will be automatically placed at their regional site. The four regional winners go to the Frozen Four, which is in St. Paul, Minnesota this year.
In the past, the NCAA tournament selection committee has placed teams at certain regional sites in order to increase attendance. However they also have to balance this with keeping bracket integrity as much as possible (i.e. #1 seed plays #16, #2 plays #15, etc.). Conference matchups are also avoided in the first round of the tournament, which causes matchups to occasionally flip.
Teams have to have a .500 or better record in at least 20 games against Division 1 opponents to be eligible for an at-large bid.
- The Current Field
So, let's start looking at who would be in the tournament if the season ended today. We're taking rankings based on Thursday, March 14th. Although anything can happen in the postseason, to make it easier we will use who is currently highest seed reaming in conference postseason tournaments for the automatic qualifiers.
Automatic Bids: RIT (Atlantic Hockey, #21 in Pairwise), Michigan State (Big Ten, #5), Bemidji State (CCHA, #32), Quinnipiac (ECAC, #8), Boston College (Hockey East, #1), and North Dakota (NCHC, #3).
Six teams earn automatic bids, which means the next ten highest ranked teams in the Pairwise earn "at-large" bids. Here is the current top-20 in the Pairwise, credit to College Hockey News.
"At-Large" Bids: Boston University, Denver, Minnesota, Maine, Wisconsin, Michigan, Colorado College, Omaha, Western Michigan, and Providence
We've got our 16 teams. As it stands, the first four teams out would be Massachusetts, New Hampshire, St. Cloud State, and Cornell.
Now we can start ranking the 16 qualifying teams by seeds using the Pairwise rankings. The top four teams are #1 seeds, next four are #2 seeds, and so on.
#1 Seeds (1-4): Boston College (#1), Boston University (#2), North Dakota (#3), and Denver (#4).
#2 Seeds (5-8): Michigan State (#5), Minnesota (#6), Maine (#7), and Quinnipiac (#8).
#3 Seeds (9-12): Wisconsin (#9), Michigan (#10), Colorado College (#11), and Omaha (#12).
#4 Seeds (13-16): Western Michigan (#13), Providence (#14), RIT (#15), and Bemidji State (#16)
Next step, matching up teams to keep tournament integrity. We've got eight games in the first round, placed in four different regionals:
Regional 1: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Bemidji State, #8 Quinnipiac vs. #9 Wisconsin.
Regional 2: #2 Boston University vs. #15 RIT, #7 Maine vs. #10 Michigan.
Regional 3: #3 North Dakota vs. #14 Providence, #6 Minnesota vs. #11 Colorado College.
Regional 4: #4 Denver vs. #13 Western Michigan, #5 Michigan State vs. #12 Omaha.
We have one conference matchup this week, with #4 Denver slated to play #13 Western Michigan. Because #3 North Dakota is also in the NCHC, we'll have to swap the Broncos with the #15 seed; a huge change for Pairwise purposes. To keep the matchups as close as possible to bracket integrity, we'll switch around #14 as well, sending RIT to play North Dakota and Providence to play Denver.
There's a second change I'm going to make that's not required, but seemingly has to be made for attendance purposes. Because Omaha is the host of the Sioux Falls regional, we want to keep them with North Dakota without making a huge change. We can do that by swapping them with #11 Colorado College.
Regional 1: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Bemidji State, #8 Quinnipiac vs. #9 Wisconsin.
Regional 2: #2 Boston University vs. #13 Western Michigan, #7 Maine vs. #10 Michigan.
Regional 3: #3 North Dakota vs. #15 RIT, #6 Minnesota vs. #12 Omaha.
Regional 4: #4 Denver vs. #14 Providence, #5 Michigan State vs. #11 Colorado College.
When determining regional sites, the committee (usually) recognizes that driving is easier for teams and fans. However, once flying has been determined, it doesn't necessarily matter where that team is flying to. There are two east regionals (Providence, Springfield) and two west regionals (Maryland Heights, Sioux Falls) this year.
We'll begin as always with regional hosts, and this week it's Omaha instead of Massachusetts. We place the Mavericks in Sioux Falls along with North Dakota and Minnesota, a near-perfect trio of teams to have there. Next up, #1 Boston College gets placed in Providence as the top team, while #2 Boston University gets Springfield. The pair of top teams in both of those regionals all get to stay out east: BC, BU, Maine, and Quinnipiac. That leaves Denver in Maryland Heights. It's a shame that there's not a Loveland regional this year, as it would be electric to see both the Pioneers and Colorado College stay in their home state.
- Final Result
Providence, RI: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Bemidji State, #8 Quinnipiac vs. #9 Wisconsin.
Springfield, MA: #2 Boston University vs. #13 Western Michigan, #7 Maine vs. #10 Michigan.
Sioux Falls, SD: #3 North Dakota vs. #15 RIT, #6 Minnesota vs. #12 Omaha.
Maryland Heights, MO: #4 Denver vs. #14 Providence, #5 Michigan State vs. #11 Colorado College.
We're at a point of the season where it's a 99% chance that the top two seeds will stay in Providence and Springfield, respectively. If you would have asked me last week, I would have said the same thing about #3 North Dakota in Sioux Falls as well. But as mentioned above, Omaha's sweep now complicates things for the Fighting Hawks, meaning a possible flight to Maryland Heights instead of a short drive down to South Dakota.
With playoff action ramping up it's likely that at least 12 of the 16 teams in this weeks 'Bracketology' will eventually make the NCAA Tournament. Granted, an upset or two can still happen in the conference playoffs, but the majority of at-large teams are really starting to take shape now.
With how these teams have been playing I'll give my Frozen Four picks for this version, but take it with a grain of salt. The recent change in seedings has put some really strong teams in every bracket, specifically Wisconsin as a three seed along with Boston College and Quinnipiac. Out of these 16, give me Boston College, Maine, North Dakota, and Colorado College to make it to St. Paul in April.
