ECH "Bracketology": Version 7.0

WRITTEN BY ALEX BERGER - march 8th, 2024

After a one-week break, Bracketology is back! With conference playoffs already underway, you can expect an updated article every week until the NCAA Tournament, including one the night before/morning of "Selection Sunday" on March 24th. 

Things are becoming a bit more clear, especially for the top teams in the country, but getting just as messy on the Pairwise bubble. The teams on the edge are Providence St. Cloud State, Western Michigan, Omaha, Cornell, and New Hampshire. Those six are separated by .0160 in the RPI and are fighting for (at the most) the last two at-large bids in this year's tournament. That number will likely go down with every upset in the Big Ten, ECAC, Hockey East, and NCHC postseasons; i.e. teams who win their tournament outside of the top-14 teams in the Pairwise.

A Thursday-night game between two tournament teams, Boston University and Providence, switched up the rankings heading into the weekend. The Friars dropped all the way down to 13th and find themselves on the bubble heading into the last game of the regular season.

- How The NCAA Tournament Field Is Determined

16 teams qualify for the NCAA tournament every year. Automatic bids are given to the conference postseason champions, and the other "at large" bids are calculated through the Pairwise. That is, long-story short, a mathematical system that ranks teams based on their record, their opponent's record, and their opponent's opponent's records.

This year, the four regional sites (teams hosting) are in Maryland Heights, Missouri (Lindenwood), Providence, Rhode Island (Brown), Sioux Falls, South Dakota (Omaha), and Springfield, Massachusetts (UMass). If any of the hosting teams qualify for the tournament, they will be automatically placed at their regional site. The four regional winners go to the Frozen Four, which is in St. Paul, Minnesota this year.

In the past, the NCAA tournament selection committee has placed teams at certain regional sites in order to increase attendance. However they also have to balance this with keeping bracket integrity as much as possible (i.e. #1 seed plays #16, #2 plays #15, etc.). Conference matchups are also avoided in the first round of the tournament, which causes matchups to occasionally flip.

Teams have to have a .500 or better record in at least 20 games against Division 1 opponents to be eligible for an at-large bid.

- The Current Field

So, let's start looking at who would be in the tournament if the season ended today. We're taking rankings based on Friday, March 7th. Although anything can happen in the postseason, to make it easier we will use who is currently leading their respective conferences OR who is the highest seed reaming in conference postseason tournaments for the automatic qualifiers.

Automatic Bids: RIT (Atlantic Hockey, #23 in Pairwise), Michigan State (Big Ten, #5), Bemidji State (CCHA, #33), Quinnipiac (ECAC, #8), Boston College (Hockey East, #1), and North Dakota (NCHC, #3).

Six teams earn automatic bids, which means the next ten highest ranked teams in the Pairwise earn "at-large" bids. Here is the current top-20 in the Pairwise, credit to College Hockey News.

"At-Large" Bids: Boston University, Denver, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maine, Massachusetts, Colorado College, Michigan, Providence, and St. Cloud State

We've got our 16 teams. As it stands, the first four teams out would be Western Michigan, Omaha, Cornell, and New Hampshire

Now we can start ranking the 16 qualifying teams by seeds using the Pairwise rankings. The top four teams are #1 seeds, next four are #2 seeds, and so on. 

#1 Seeds (1-4): Boston College (#1), Boston University (#2), North Dakota (#3), and Denver (#4).

#2 Seeds (5-8): Michigan State (#5), Wisconsin (#6), Minnesota (#7), and Quinnipiac (#8).

#3 Seeds (9-12): Maine (#9), Massachusetts (#10), Colorado College (#11), and Michigan (#12).

#4 Seeds (13-16): Providence (#13), St. Cloud State (#14), RIT (#15), and Bemidji State (#16)

Next step, matching up teams to keep tournament integrity. We've got eight games in the first round, placed in four different regionals:

Regional 1: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Bemidji State, #8 Quinnipiac vs. #9 Maine.

Regional 2: #2 Boston University vs. #15 RIT, #7 Minnesota vs. #10 Massachusetts.

Regional 3: #3 North Dakota vs. #14 St. Cloud State, #6 Wisconsin vs. #11 Colorado College.

Regional 4: #4 Denver vs. #13 Providence, #5 Michigan State vs. #12 Michigan.

There are a couple of conference matchups to worry about, which complicate things. We'll start with the four seeds. #14 St. Cloud State can't play either #3 North Dakota or #4 Denver, meaning we have to swap them with #15 RIT.

The next issue comes with the three seeds, and a similar issue with #12 Michigan. They aren't able to play any of Michigan State, Wisconsin, or Minnesota. That means that we have to swap multiple teams around to accommodate that change. Let's try to do it in a way that keeps both #1 Boston College and #2 Boston University out east.

#12 Michigan has to play against #8 Quinnipiac, as they're the only non-Big Ten two seed. We want to leave Massachusetts where they are so we can keep Boston University in an eastern regional. That leaves Maine and Colorado College, who have to be placed with #5 Michigan State and #6 Wisconsin. On the one hand we can leave CC in Regional 3 to protect bracket integrity. On the other we can place them against Michigan State to protect their matchup as the higher seed. Either way it's a mess to figure out. I think the latter makes more sense as something the committee would do. The integrity is already a mess anyways.

Regional 1: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Bemidji State, #8 Quinnipiac vs. #12 Michigan.

Regional 2: #2 Boston University vs. #14 St. Cloud State, #7 Minnesota vs. #10 Massachusetts.

Regional 3: #3 North Dakota vs. #15 RIT, #6 Wisconsin vs. #9 Maine.

Regional 4: #4 Denver vs. #13 Providence, #5 Michigan State vs. #11 Colorado College

When determining regional sites, the committee (usually) recognizes that driving is easier for teams and fans. However, once flying has been determined, it doesn't necessarily matter where that team is flying to. There are two east regionals (Providence, Springfield) and two west regionals (Maryland Heights, Sioux Falls) this year.

We start again with Massachusetts, who goes to Springfield as the regional host along with #2 BU. As the top seed Boston College gets their preferred regional in Providence. #3 North Dakota and #6 Wisconsin head to Sioux Falls, which leaves Maryland Heights for #4 Denver.

- Final Result

Providence, RI: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Bemidji State, #8 Quinnipiac vs. #12 Michigan.

Springfield, MA: #2 Boston University vs. #14 St. Cloud State, #7 Minnesota vs. #10 Massachusetts.

Sioux Falls, SD: #3 North Dakota vs. #15 RIT, #6 Wisconsin vs. #9 Maine.

Maryland Heights, MO: #4 Denver vs. #13 Providence, #5 Michigan State vs. #11 Colorado College

Again, a nightmare scenario with multiple conference matchups to worry about and a regional host that could end up as either a three or a four seed.

We discussed this in an earlier 'Bracketology,' but it would be much easier if teams could be swapped between bands. Switching #12 Michigan (.5549 RPI) and #13 Providence (.5538) is much less severe a change compared to Michigan and #9 Maine (.5706), while solving the conference matchup issue. Regardless, we could go on and on about nitpicky changes like that. 

This week's version shows just how much the top teams are protected in this process. Granted, the committee may vastly different decisions than I did, but in my opinion this is the best way to keep (a majority of) the fans happy. Teams like Maine and RIT may be mad that they're pushed out west, but that's sometimes just how the seeds fall. Until the tournament format is changed this is what we get to work with.