ECH "Bracketology": Version 5.0
WRITTEN BY ALEX BERGER - February 16th, 2024Welcome back to "Bracketology," where every week you never know what you're going to end up with when putting together a potential NCAA Tournament. Last week was (arguably) the worst possible scenario for the selection committee and for fans alike, with three Hockey East one seeds and a four-seed in Massachusetts, who is hosting a regional this year.
Before we get into this week's version, I want to address a good point brought up by USCHO's Jim Shaw, who brought up an article in the NCAA selection criteria which could make things easier for the selection committee. That reads:
"If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, the committee may protect integrity of the bracket (i.e., maintaining the paring process according to seed may take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups)."
That says, in part, that the committee could switch around teams without worrying about conference matchups if more than five make it from one conference. That's likely this year with a few, including Hockey East. There are five teams from HE in this week's field (BC, BU, Maine, Massachusetts, and Providence).
However, I understand that rule to mean that the committee would only switch teams around to just protect bracket integrity, not for attendance purposes. Meaning it would not apply to last week's (and possibly future?) tournament issues that might arise with Massachusetts this year. I still understand the argument, and as any other college hockey fan, want all four regionals packed this year. But there is not a prerequisite for any conference matchup in the first round, let alone one that the committee would choose.
- How The NCAA Tournament Field Is Determined
16 teams qualify for the NCAA tournament every year. Automatic bids are given to the conference postseason champions, and the other "at large" bids are calculated through the Pairwise. That is, long-story short, a mathematical system that ranks teams based on their record, their opponent's record, and their opponent's opponent's records.
This year, the four regional sites (teams hosting) are in Maryland Heights, Missouri (Lindenwood), Providence, Rhode Island (Brown), Sioux Falls, South Dakota (Omaha), and Springfield, Massachusetts (UMass). If any of the hosting teams qualify for the tournament, they will be automatically placed at their regional site. The four regional winners go to the Frozen Four, which is in St. Paul, Minnesota this year.
In the past, the NCAA tournament selection committee has placed teams at certain regional sites in order to increase attendance. However they also have to balance this with keeping bracket integrity as much as possible (i.e. #1 seed plays #16, #2 plays #15, etc.). Conference matchups are also avoided in the first round of the tournament, which causes matchups to occasionally flip.
Teams have to have a .500 or better record in at least 20 games against Division 1 opponents to be eligible for an at-large bid.
- The Current Field
So, let's start looking at who would be in the tournament if the season ended today. We're taking rankings based on Friday, February 16th. Although anything can happen in the postseason, to make it easier we will use who is currently leading their respective conferences for the automatic qualifiers.
Automatic Bids: RIT (Atlantic Hockey, #22 in Pairwise), Michigan State (Big Ten, #5), Minnesota State (CCHA, #29), Quinnipiac (ECAC, #9), Boston University (Hockey East, #3), and North Dakota (NCHC, #2).
Six teams earn automatic bids, which means the next ten highest ranked teams in the Pairwise earn "at-large" bids. Here is the current top-20 in the Pairwise, credit to College Hockey News.
"At-Large" Bids: Boston College, Wisconsin, Maine, Denver, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Western Michigan, Providence, St. Cloud State, and Cornell
We've got our 16 teams. As it stands, the first four teams out would be Michigan, New Hampshire, Colorado College, and Omaha.
- Putting Together The Regionals
Now we can start ranking the 16 qualifying teams by seeds using the Pairwise rankings. The top four teams are #1 seeds, next four are #2 seeds, and so on.
#1 Seeds (1-4): Boston College (#1), North Dakota (#2), Boston University (#3), and Wisconsin (#4).
#2 Seeds (5-8): Michigan State (#5), Maine (#6), Denver (#7), and Minnesota (#8).
#3 Seeds (9-12): Quinnipiac (#9), Massachusetts (#10), Western Michigan (#11), and Providence (#12).
#4 Seeds (13-16): St. Cloud State (#13), Cornell (#14), RIT (#15), and Minnesota State (#16)
Next step, matching up teams to keep tournament integrity. We've got eight games in the first round, placed in four different regionals:
Regional 1: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Minnesota State, #8 Minnesota vs. #9 Quinnipiac.
Regional 2: #2 North Dakota vs. #15 RIT, #7 Denver vs. #10 Massachusetts.
Regional 3: #3 Boston University vs. #14 Cornell, #6 Maine vs. #11 Western Michigan.
Regional 4: #4 Wisconsin vs. #13 St. Cloud State, #5 Michigan State vs. #12 Providence.
No conference matchups! But for the second straight week, Massachusetts ends up in the same regional as North Dakota. This time around, there's a little more flexibility when it comes to where UMass can go, and this time around we will be able to swap them with a different team. Although we are making the move (in part) for attendance purposes, I believe the committee will justify it with travel costs for keeping the one seed Fighting Hawks in Sioux Falls -- and in turn, Boston College, Boston University, and Maine.
Also, as fun as it would be to switch Massachusetts with Western Michigan and have an all east regional featuring four great teams, we'd have two conference matchups. That means we'll have to swap UMass with Quinnipiac into the regional with #1 overall BC. As for Minnesota, the disadvantage of playing a "road" game in the first round is offset by the fact that they technically play a weaker team in game one (#10 vs. #9).
Regional 1: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Minnesota State, #8 Minnesota vs. #10 Massachusetts.
Regional 2: #2 North Dakota vs. #15 RIT, #7 Denver vs. #9 Quinnipiac.
Regional 3: #3 Boston University vs. #14 Cornell, #6 Maine vs. #11 Western Michigan.
Regional 4: #4 Wisconsin vs. #13 St. Cloud State, #5 Michigan State vs. #12 Providence.
When determining regional sites, the committee (usually) recognizes that driving is easier for teams and fans. However, once flying has been determined, it doesn't necessarily matter where that team is flying to. There are two east regionals (Providence, Springfield) and two west regionals (Maryland Heights, Sioux Falls) this year.
We start as always with Massachusetts, who goes to Springfield as that regional's host along with the #1 overall seed Eagles. That means that, unlike last week, North Dakota gets to stay in Sioux Falls and Boston University gets to stay out east in Providence, a win all around for the top three teams. That sends the two top Big Ten teams, #4 Wisconsin and #5 Michigan State, on their way to Maryland Heights.
- Final Result
Springfield, MA: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Minnesota State, #8 Minnesota vs. #10 Massachusetts.
Sioux Falls, SD: #2 North Dakota vs. #15 RIT, #7 Denver vs. #9 Quinnipiac.
Providence, RI: #3 Boston University vs. #14 Cornell, #6 Maine vs. #11 Western Michigan.
Maryland Heights, MO: #4 Wisconsin vs. #13 St. Cloud State, #5 Michigan State vs. #12 Providence.
This week looks much better when there's a non-Hockey East team to switch Massachusetts to. The top three teams are all at their "preferred" regionals, and all of the top six teams are in (or on the edge of) driving range. As we get closer to the tournament, more of these teams will be put into place. For example, according to CHN's "Pairwise Probability Matrix," there is a 84% chance that Boston College or North Dakota end up as the #1 overall seed, a 24% chance that Boston University ends up as the #3 overall seed, etc. Those numbers will be fun to watch over the next few weeks.
