ECH "Bracketology": Version 3.0

WRITTEN BY ALEX BERGER - JANUARY 31st, 2024

There's a brand new #1 and #2 in the Pairwise! After huge conference sweeps over their rivals, Boston College and North Dakota both leapfrogged now #3 Boston University, switching up this week's 'Bracketology.' The other one seed is Wisconsin, who beats out Maine by .0001 in the RPI for the final spot there. Some other big changes are the second-half surges by Minnesota State (5-1-2 since January 1) and RIT (5-2-1) who now lead their respective conferences and make their 'Bracketology' debuts this week.

- How The NCAA Tournament Field Is Determined

16 teams qualify for the NCAA tournament every year. Automatic bids are given to the conference postseason champions, and the other "at large" bids are calculated through the Pairwise. That is, long-story short, a mathematical system that ranks teams based on their record, their opponent's record, and their opponent's opponent's records.

This year, the four regional sites (teams hosting) are in Maryland Heights, Missouri (Lindenwood), Providence, Rhode Island (Brown), Sioux Falls, South Dakota (Omaha), and Springfield, Massachusetts (UMass). If any of the hosting teams qualify for the tournament, they will be automatically placed at their regional site. The four regional winners go to the Frozen Four, which is in St. Paul, Minnesota this year.

In the past, the NCAA tournament selection committee has placed teams at certain regional sites in order to increase attendance. However they also have to balance this with keeping bracket integrity as much as possible (i.e. #1 seed plays #16, #2 plays #15, etc.). Conference matchups are also avoided in the first round of the tournament, which causes matchups to occasionally flip.

Teams have to have a .500 or better record in at least 20 games against Division 1 opponents to be eligible for an at-large bid.

- The Current Field

So, let's start looking at who would be in the tournament if the season ended today. We're taking rankings based on Tuesday, January 30th. Although anything can happen in the postseason, to make it easier we will use who is currently leading their respective conferences as champions.

Automatic Bids: RIT (Atlantic Hockey, #24 in Pairwise), Michigan State (Big Ten, #7), Minnesota State*** (CCHA, #27), Quinnipiac (ECAC, #8), Boston University (Hockey East, #3), and North Dakota (NCHC, #2).

***: St. Thomas is currently tied for first in the CCHA, but is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament in '23-'24. Minnesota State is awarded the automatic bid.

Six teams earn automatic bids, which means the next ten highest ranked teams in the Pairwise earn "at-large" bids. Here is the current top-20 in the Pairwise, credit to College Hockey News.

"At-Large" Bids: Boston College, Wisconsin, Maine, Denver, Minnesota, Providence, Massachusetts, Michigan, St. Cloud State, and Western Michigan

We've got our 16 teams. As it stands, the first four teams out would be Cornell, New Hampshire, Arizona State, and Colorado College.

- Putting Together The Regionals

Now we can start ranking the 16 qualifying teams by seeds using the Pairwise rankings. The top four teams are #1 seeds, next four are #2 seeds, and so on. 

#1 Seeds (1-4): Boston College (#1), North Dakota (#2), Boston University (#3), and Wisconsin (#4).

#2 Seeds (5-8): Maine (#5), Denver (#6), Michigan State (#7), and Quinnipiac (#8).

#3 Seeds (9-12): Minnesota (#9), Providence (#10), Massachusetts (#11), and Michigan (#12).

#4 Seeds (13-16): St. Cloud State (#13), Western Michigan (#14), RIT (#15), and Minnesota State (#16)

Next step, matching up teams to keep tournament integrity. We've got eight games in the first round, placed in four different regionals:

Regional 1: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Minnesota State, #8 Quinnipiac vs. #9 Minnesota.

Regional 2: #2 North Dakota vs. #15 RIT, #7 Michigan State vs. #10 Providence.

Regional 3: #3 Boston University vs. #14 Western Michigan, #6 Denver vs. #11 Massachusetts.

Regional 4: #4 Wisconsin vs. #13 St. Cloud State, #5 Maine vs. #12 Michigan.

For the first time in this process, we don't have a single conference matchup. There's a lot of teams that are close -- switching #2 and #3, #4 and #5, #5 and #6, and more down the line would result in issues -- but these will be our matchups.

Regional 1: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Minnesota State, #8 Quinnipiac vs. #9 Minnesota.

Regional 2: #2 North Dakota vs. #15 RIT, #7 Michigan State vs. #10 Providence.

Regional 3: #3 Boston University vs. #14 Western Michigan, #6 Denver vs. #11 Massachusetts.

Regional 4: #4 Wisconsin vs. #13 St. Cloud State, #5 Maine vs. #12 Michigan.

When determining regional sites, the committee (usually) recognizes that driving is easier for teams and fans. However, once flying has been determined, it doesn't necessarily matter where that team is flying to. There are two east regionals (Providence, Springfield) and two west regionals (Maryland Heights, Sioux Falls) this year.

We begin as always with Massachusetts, who gets placed in Springfield, MA as the regional host along with Boston University. We'll place Boston College in Providence next, then North Dakota in Sioux Falls. Basically, all of the top three seeds get placed in their preferred regionals (top seeds from the east will hope to be placed at either one out there). That leaves Wisconsin's regional to be placed in Maryland Heights, a pretty decent result all things considered for the top eight or so teams in the running for a one seed this year.

- Final Result

Providence, RI: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Minnesota State, #8 Quinnipiac vs. #9 Minnesota.

Sioux Falls, SD: #2 North Dakota vs. #15 RIT, #7 Michigan State vs. #10 Providence.

Springfield, MA: #3 Boston University vs. #14 Western Michigan, #6 Denver vs. #11 Massachusetts.

Maryland Heights, MO: #4 Wisconsin vs. #13 St. Cloud State, #5 Maine vs. #12 Michigan.

After over a year of doing these previews, we have never had a 'Bracketology' fall into place as well as this one has. We keep bracket integrity throughout all four regionals and get multiple "local" teams in three of the four to bump up attendance (we're counting North Dakota's fanbase as multiple with how well their fanbase travels). We'll enjoy it while at last, as the chaos will ramp up from here on out.