ECH "Bracketology": Version 1.0

written By Alex Berger - January 9th, 2024

It's officially January, which means it's finally time to bring back one of our favorite recurring articles during the college hockey season. "Bracketology" takes a look at the current conference standings and Pairwise to project what the current NCAA Tournament would look like, while using those predications to track trends on what the actual field could be in March.

Looking back at the bracketology process last season, it's interesting to see just how accurate you can be predicting something two months out. If you read our midseason recap this last week, you saw that we predicted 13/16 teams correctly during last year's NCAA Tournament the day that it was revealed. But what about back in late January? This was how the bracket looked in our first Bracketology of 2023.

Fargo, N.D.: #1 Minnesota vs. #16 RIT, #8 Ohio State vs. #9 Harvard

Bridgeport, CT: #2 Quinnipiac vs. #15 Omaha, #7 Denver vs. #11 Cornell

Allentown, PA: #3 Boston University vs. #14 Notre Dame, #6 Penn State vs. #10 Western Michigan

Manchester, NH: #4 Michigan vs. #13 Minnesota State, #5 St. Cloud State vs. #12 Michigan Tech

In total, 13/16 (81%) teams from that first prediction on January 29 eventually made the NCAA Tournament. Minnesota and Quinnipiac held their #1 and #2 overall seeds until March and were placed in Fargo and Bridgeport, respectively. They were two of just three teams (Penn State) who eventually were placed in their first predicted regionals (19%).

- How The NCAA Tournament Field Is Determined

16 teams qualify for the NCAA tournament every year. Automatic bids are given to the conference postseason champions, and the other "at large" bids are calculated through the Pairwise. That is, long-story short, a mathematical system that ranks teams based on their record, their opponent's record, and their opponent's opponent's records.

This year, the four regional sites (teams hosting) are in Maryland Heights, Missouri (Lindenwood), Providence, Rhode Island (Brown), Sioux Falls, South Dakota (Omaha), and Springfield, Massachusetts (UMass). If any of the hosting teams qualify for the tournament, they will be automatically placed at their regional site. The four regional winners go to the Frozen Four, which is in St. Paul, Minnesota this year.

In the past, the NCAA tournament selection committee has placed teams at certain regional sites in order to increase attendance. However, they also have to balance this with keeping bracket integrity as much as possible (i.e. #1 seed plays #16, #2 plays #15, etc.). Conference matchups are also avoided in the first round of the tournament, which causes matchups to occasionally flip.

Teams have to have a .500 or better record in at least 20 games against Division 1 opponents to be eligible for an at-large bid.

- The Current Field

So, let's start looking at who would be in the tournament if the season ended today. We're taking rankings based on Tuesday, January 9th. Although anything can happen in the postseason, to make it easier we will use the highest remaining seed in each respective conference tournament.

Automatic Bids: Sacred Heart (Atlantic Hockey, #43 in Pairwise), Wisconsin (Big Ten, #2), Bemidji State (CCHA, #40), Quinnipiac (ECAC, #5), Boston University (Hockey East, #1), and St. Cloud State (NCHC, #13).

Six teams earn automatic bids, which means the next ten highest ranked teams in the Pairwise earn "at-large" bids. Here is the current top-20 in the Pairwise, credit to College Hockey News.

"At-Large" Bids: Maine, Boston College, North Dakota, Michigan State, Denver, Providence, Western Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Massachusetts

We've got our 16 teams. As it stands, the first four teams out would be Michigan, Arizona State, Penn State, and RIT

- Putting Together The Regionals

Now we can start ranking the 16 qualifying teams by seeds using the Pairwise rankings. The top four teams are #1 seeds, next four are #2 seeds, and so on.

#1 Seeds (1-4): Boston University (#1), Wisconsin (#2), Maine (#3), and Boston College (#4).

#2 Seeds (5-8): Quinnipiac (#5), North Dakota (#6), Michigan State State (#7), and Denver (#8).

#3 Seeds (9-12): Providence (#9), Western Michigan (#10), New Hampshire (#11), and Minnesota (#12).

#4 Seeds (13-16): St. Cloud State (#13), Massachusetts (#14), Bemidji State (#15), and Sacred Heart (#16).

Next step, matching up teams to keep tournament integrity. We've got eight games in the first round, placed in four different regionals:

Regional 1: #1 Boston University vs. #16 Sacred Heart, #8 Denver vs. #9 Providence.

Regional 2: #2 Wisconsin vs. #15 Bemidji State, #7 Michigan State vs. #10 Western Michigan.

Regional 3: #3 Maine vs. #14 Massachusetts, #6 North Dakota vs. #11 New Hampshire.

Regional 4: #4 Boston College vs. #13 St. Cloud State, #5 Quinnipiac vs. #12 Minnesota.

There is just one conference matchup to figure out, and that's Maine vs. Massachusetts.

It's a difficult one to change, as three of the top four teams in the Pairwise this week are all from Hockey East. The Minutemen are also hosting a regional so they have to be placed in Springfield, dragging Wisconsin away from Sioux Falls. To replace that potential local draw, we'll try to get North Dakota and St. Cloud State there instead.

Regional 1: #1 Boston University vs. #16 Sacred Heart, #8 Denver vs. #9 Providence.

Regional 2: #2 Wisconsin vs. #14 Massachusetts, #7 Michigan State vs. #10 Western Michigan.

Regional 3: #3 Maine vs. #13 St. Cloud State, #6 North Dakota vs. #11 New Hampshire.

Regional 4: #4 Boston College vs. #15 Bemidji State, #5 Quinnipiac vs. #12 Minnesota.

When determining regional sites, the committee (usually) recognizes that driving is easier for teams and fans. However, once flying has been determined, it doesn't necessarily matter where that team is flying to. There are two east regionals (Providence, Springfield) and two west regionals (Maryland Heights, Sioux Falls) this year.

As mentioned earlier, Wisconsin/Massachusetts and Michigan State/Western Michigan get placed in Springfield as UMass is the host. That leaves just one east regional available for #1 overall Boston University, which is just an hour away from Providence (as a bonus the Friars play right there, and Sacred Heart is just two hours away. Maine just misses out on an east regional, and is placed in Sioux Falls with North Dakota and St. Cloud State. Finally, Boston College/Bemidji State and Quinnipiac/Minnesota all take a flight to Missouri.

- Final Result

Providence, RI: #1 Boston University vs. #16 Sacred Heart, #8 Denver vs. #9 Providence

Springfield, MA: #2 Wisconsin vs. #14 Massachusetts, #7 Michigan State vs. #10 Western Michigan

Sioux Falls, SD: #3 Maine vs. #13 St. Cloud State, #6 North Dakota vs. #11 New Hampshire

Maryland Heights, MO: #4 Boston College vs. #15 Bemidji State, #5 Quinnipiac vs. #12 Minnesota

Version 1.0 has plenty of marquee matchups in the regional semifinals, highlighted by a title rematch between Quinnipiac and Minnesota. Despite having a 50/50 split between east and west teams in the tournament, it's going to be dogfight for positioning for the top teams. Right now four of the top five teams in the Pairwise are out east, meaning it's more likely than not two of the #1 seeds will have to take a flight no matter what. That will most likely be the biggest issue for the tournament committee in 2024.