ECH "Bracketology": Version 9.0
WRITTEN BY ALEX BERGER - march 21th, 2024With just days to go now until Selection Sunday, there really isn't a better time in the college hockey season. 18 teams still have a dream of lifting a conference postseason trophy this weekend, and 22 still have a shot at lifting an NCAA Championship in early April.
There are 12 total games this weekend -- all of which will heavily factor the Pairwise -- and four teams have found themselves squarely on the bubble. Massachusetts, Colorado College, Cornell, and St. Cloud State are all fighting for the last few spots in the tournament (Western Michigan is currently #13, but is 99% to get in according to College Hockey News). The Tigers are in the worst position of the three mentally, as they will not be able to play for their fate this upcoming weekend. The other three teams are still alive for their conference titles.
Getting into the current field, I feel like this week's field needs a disclaimer. Imagine everything that could go wrong (i.e. matchups, seeding, etc.) does, and you have to avoid a minefield of same-conference teams to get it fixed. For example the Big Ten (4), Hockey East (4), and NCHC (5) represent 13 of the 16 teams in the entire tournament this week.
Please try to keep an open mind as this week's bracket is put together. A lot of what these decisions are based on is protecting the #1 overall seed, a right that has (and should) be given to the top team every year regardless of the makeup of the field. That was the main focus this week too, keeping multiple conference matchups for the sake of bracket integrity.
- How The NCAA Tournament Field Is Determined
16 teams qualify for the NCAA tournament every year. Automatic bids are given to the conference postseason champions, and the other "at large" bids are calculated through the Pairwise. That is, long-story short, a mathematical system that ranks teams based on their record, their opponent's record, and their opponent's opponent's records.
This year, the four regional sites (teams hosting) are in Maryland Heights, Missouri (Lindenwood), Providence, Rhode Island (Brown), Sioux Falls, South Dakota (Omaha), and Springfield, Massachusetts (UMass). If any of the hosting teams qualify for the tournament, they will be automatically placed at their regional site. The four regional winners go to the Frozen Four, which is in St. Paul, Minnesota this year.
In the past, the NCAA tournament selection committee has placed teams at certain regional sites in order to increase attendance. However they also have to balance this with keeping bracket integrity as much as possible (i.e. #1 seed plays #16, #2 plays #15, etc.). Conference matchups are also avoided in the first round of the tournament, which causes matchups to occasionally flip.
Teams have to have a .500 or better record in at least 20 games against Division 1 opponents to be eligible for an at-large bid.
- The Current Field
So, let's start looking at who would be in the tournament if the season ended today. We're taking rankings based on Friday, March 21st. Although anything can happen in the postseason, to make it easier we will use who is the highest seed remaining in conference postseason tournaments for the automatic qualifiers.
Automatic Bids: RIT (Atlantic Hockey, #21 in Pairwise), Michigan State (Big Ten, #5), Bemidji State (CCHA, #31), Quinnipiac (ECAC, #7), Boston College (Hockey East, #1), and North Dakota (NCHC, #3).
Six teams earn automatic bids, which means the next ten highest ranked teams in the Pairwise earn "at-large" bids. Here is the current top-20 in the Pairwise, credit to College Hockey News.
"At-Large" Bids: Boston University, Denver, Maine, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Omaha, Massachusetts, Western Michigan, and Colorado College.
We've got our 16 teams. As it stands, the first four teams out would be Cornell, St. Cloud State, Providence, and New Hampshire.
Now we can start ranking the 16 qualifying teams by seeds using the Pairwise rankings. The top four teams are #1 seeds, next four are #2 seeds, and so on.
#1 Seeds (1-4): Boston College (#1), Boston University (#2), North Dakota (#3), and Denver (#4).
#2 Seeds (5-8): Michigan State (#5), Maine (#6), Quinnipiac (#7), and Minnesota (#8).
#3 Seeds (9-12): Wisconsin (#9), Michigan (#10), Omaha (#11), and Massachusetts (#12).
#4 Seeds (13-16): Western Michigan (#13), Colorado College (#14), RIT (#15), and Bemidji State (#16)
Next step, matching up teams to keep tournament integrity. We've got eight games in the first round, placed in four different regionals:
Regional 1: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Bemidji State, #8 Minnesota vs. #9 Wisconsin.
Regional 2: #2 Boston University vs. #15 RIT, #7 Quinnipiac vs. #10 Michigan.
Regional 3: #3 North Dakota vs. #14 Colorado College , #6 Maine vs. #11 Omaha.
Regional 4: #4 Denver vs. #13 Western Michigan, #5 Michigan State vs. #12 Massachusetts.
Legitimately everything that could go wrong, does. We have two regional hosts, three conference matchups (including two at #3/#14 and #4/#13), and three Big Ten teams from at #8-#10. This is a nightmare scenario for the committee, as they either have to pick between bracket integrity or breaking their own rules for determining the field (not to mention the issue with attendance).
Let's revisit an article in the tournament selection criteria we first brought up last month.
According to the committee: "If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, the committee may protect integrity of the bracket (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed may take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups)."
We have five teams from the NCHC (North Dakota, Denver, Omaha, Western Michigan, and Colorado College), which means we can use that rule if we need to. Knowing the committee will want to protect the top two-seeds, Boston College and Boston University, it's unlikely they would switch #13/14 with #15/16.
This is very controversial, but it makes no sense to give a complete disadvantage to the top teams. We'll leave North Dakota vs. Colorado College and Denver vs. Western Michigan, although I can never remember a time where we had multiple conference matchups in the first round.
Then is the issue of regional hosts. Omaha (Sioux Falls) and Massachusetts (Springfield) appear in Bracketology in the same week for the first time all season right at the worst possible time, and both are near locks to make the NCAA Tournament. Rearranging the three-seeds, we can pair one of those two teams with a close top-four team while avoiding other conference matchups within Big Ten teams. With the tough 16-team field we were dealt in Pairwise this week, here is the best I can come up with.
Regional 1: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Bemidji State, #8 Minnesota vs. #12 Massachusetts.
Regional 2: #2 Boston University vs. #15 RIT, #7 Quinnipiac vs. #10 Michigan.
Regional 3: #3 North Dakota vs. #14 Colorado College , #6 Maine vs. #9 Wisconsin.
Regional 4: #4 Denver vs. #13 Western Michigan, #5 Michigan State vs. #11 Omaha.
When determining regional sites, the committee (usually) recognizes that driving is easier for teams and fans. However, once flying has been determined, it doesn't necessarily matter where that team is flying to. There are two east regionals (Providence, Springfield) and two west regionals (Maryland Heights, Sioux Falls) this year.
UMass (and in extension Boston College) head to Springfield, one of two preferred regionals for the tournament's top team. We then put Omaha in Sioux Falls, kicking out North Dakota in favor of Denver as the top seed there. Boston University/Quinnipiac/RIT is a great trio of teams to send to the Providence regional, which leaves Maryland Heights for the Fighting Hawks.
- Final Result
Springfield, MA: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Bemidji State, #8 Minnesota vs. #12 Massachusetts.
Providence, RI: #2 Boston University vs. #15 RIT, #7 Quinnipiac vs. #10 Michigan.
Maryland Heights, MO: #3 North Dakota vs. #14 Colorado College , #6 Maine vs. #9 Wisconsin.
Sioux Falls, SD: #4 Denver vs. #13 Western Michigan, #5 Michigan State vs. #11 Omaha.
After a few weeks of "easy" brackets to put together, this would be a genuine crapshoot ahead of Selection Sunday. Genuinely, this is my best guess (key word, guess!) as to what to committee would put out, as there is no precedent to the amount of issues that would need to be fixed -- or accepted -- with the current field.
If it's any consolation, there is still a lot that could change from this week to next, but this should be a warning to college hockey fans that there may be some reconciling with whatever the field is come this time next week. As a North Dakota fan, it would suck seeing the Fighting Hawks match up against Colorado College in the opening round and get sent to Maryland Heights instead of a nearby regional like Sioux Falls.
Regardless, a majority of fans looking ahead to the NCAA Tournament should be crossing their fingers that the chaos regresses a little bit this next weekend (in terms of the Pairwise, not the games themselves). It's easier for everyone involved -- from the committee, the fans, and the teams -- if there's less drama when it comes to selecting the bracket.
