ECH ‘Bracketology’: Version 3.0
Written by alex berger - March 19, 2025We’re in for a doozy this week in ‘Bracketology.’ There are just 12 games to go before the NCAA Tournament field is set and revealed, and if the Pairwise lands like it has after this weekend’s slate of games… oh boy.
Here’s what we know as of right now:
Boston College and Michigan State are the top two seeds, respectively.
Minnesota State has earned the CCHA’s automatic bid, as St. Thomas is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament.
Atlantic Hockey is guaranteed to take at least one “at-large” bid away.
Alongside Bentley and Holy Cross, there are six teams outside of the current Pairwise bubble still playing for a shot to advance to the NCAA Tournament: Arizona State (NCHC), Clarkson, Cornell, Dartmouth (ECAC), North Dakota (NCHC), and Northeastern (Hockey East).
If any of those six teams win their conference tournament this weekend, Michigan would be the first team knocked out of the NCAAs. If two of those teams get in, Penn State would be the next team knocked out. If all three conferences get an auto big, Quinnipiac would be knocked out as well.
The only other unknowns at play are the regional hosts. Bowling Green (hosting in Toledo) and New Hampshire (Manchester) are both done for the season. Penn State (Allentown) currently has an 86% chance to qualify for the NCAA Tournament according to CHN’s ‘Pairwise Probability Matrix.” North Dakota would have to win the NCHC championship to play host in Fargo (which would likely be against rival Minnesota).
- How The NCAA Tournament Field Is Determined
16 teams qualify for the NCAA tournament every year. Automatic bids are given to the conference postseason champions, and the other "at large" bids are calculated through the Pairwise. That is, long-story short, a mathematical system that ranks teams based on their record, their opponent's record, and their opponent's opponent's records.
This year, the four regional sites (teams hosting) are in Allentown, Pennsylvania (Penn State), Fargo, North Dakota (North Dakota), Toledo, Ohio (Bowling Green), and Manchester, New Hampshire (New Hampshire). If any of the hosting teams qualify for the tournament, they will be automatically placed at their regional site. The four regional winners go to the Frozen Four, which is in St. Louis, Missouri this year.
In the past, the NCAA tournament selection committee has placed teams at certain regional sites in order to increase attendance. However they also have to balance this with keeping bracket integrity as much as possible (i.e. #1 seed plays #16, #2 plays #15, etc.). Conference matchups are also avoided in the first round of the tournament, which causes matchups to occasionally flip.
Teams have to have a .500 or better record in at least 20 games against Division 1 opponents to be eligible for an at-large bid.
- The Current Field
So, let's start looking at who would be in the tournament if the season ended today. We're taking rankings based on Monday, March 17th. Although anything can happen in the postseason, to make it easier we will use the highest remaining seed in each conference postseason tournament.
Automatic Bids: Holy Cross (#24, Atlantic), Michigan State (#2, Big Ten), Minnesota State (#16, CCHA), Quinnipiac (#12, ECAC), Maine (#3, Hockey East), and Western Michigan (#5, NCHC).
Six teams earn automatic bids, which means the next ten highest ranked teams in the Pairwise earn "at-large" bids. Here is the current top-20 in the Pairwise.
Credit: College Hockey News
"At-Large" Bids: Boston College, Minnesota, Boston University, Connecticut, Providence, Ohio State, Denver, Massachusetts, Penn State, and Michigan
We've got our 16 tournament teams. As it stands, the first four teams out would be Arizona State, North Dakota, UMass-Lowell, and Cornell.
- Putting Together The Regionals
Now we can start ranking the 16 qualifying teams by seeds using the Pairwise rankings. The top four teams are #1 seeds, next four are #2 seeds, and so on.
#1 Seeds (1-4): #1 Boston College, #2 Michigan State, #3 Maine, and #4 Minnesota
#2 Seeds (5-8): #5 Western Michigan, #6 Boston University, #7 Connecticut, and #8 Providence
#3 Seeds (9-12): #9 Ohio State, #10 Denver, #11 Massachusetts, and #12 Quinnipiac
#4 Seeds (13-16): #13 Penn State, #14 Michigan, #15 Minnesota State, and #16 Holy Cross
Next step, matching up teams to keep tournament integrity. We've got eight games in the first round, placed in four different regionals:
Regional 1: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Holy Cross, #8 Providence vs. #9 Ohio State
Regional 2: #2 Michigan State vs. #15 Minnesota State, #7 Connecticut vs. #10 Denver
Regional 3: #3 Maine vs. #14 Michigan, #6 Boston University vs. #11 Massachusetts
Regional 4: #4 Minnesota vs. #13 Penn State, #5 Western Michigan vs. #12 Quinnipiac
There are two conference matchups we need to avoid. #4 Minnesota vs. #13 Penn State and #6 Boston University vs. #11 Massachusetts.
The easier fix is the 2/3 matchups, as we can swap #11 UMass with #12 Quinnipiac (knowing both teams are east-coast teams and will likely end up in a regional out east, meaning attendance isn’t an issue).
The real trouble this week is the 1/4 matchups. There are two one seeds (Michigan State and Minnesota) and two four seeds (Penn State and Michigan) all from the Big Ten. To add to the confusion, the Nittany Lions are the host in the Allentown regional.
There is genuinely no good way to solve this. In this scenario, the committee would either have to:
Have a conference matchup in round one
Swap teams within seeding bands (i.e. turn a #1 seed into a #2 seed and vice versa)
Have the #1 overall seed play a non-#16 team
The first two NEVER happen, which means we’re stuck with option three. That leaves us with one of the craziest brackets in “Bracketology” history.
Because we’ve already lost the plot when it comes to bracket integrity, I’m going to switch #9 Ohio State with #10 Denver. I’m planning to put Michigan State’s regional in Toledo, which heavily increases attendance there. That leaves us with…
Regional 1: #1 Boston College vs. #14 Michigan, #8 Providence vs. #10 Denver
Regional 2: #2 Michigan State vs. #16 Holy Cross, #7 Connecticut vs. #9 Ohio State
Regional 3: #3 Maine vs. #13 Penn State, #6 Boston University vs. #12 Quinnipiac
Regional 4: #4 Minnesota vs. #15 Minnesota State, #5 Western Michigan vs. #11 Massachusetts
When determining regional sites, the committee usually recognizes that driving is easier for teams and fans. However, once flying has been determined, it doesn't necessarily matter where that team is flying to. There are two east regionals (Manchester, Allentown), one midwest regional (Toledo) and one west regional (Fargo) this year.
We start with the lone regional host this week, Penn State, which heads to Allentown with Maine, Boston University, and Quinnipiac.
#1 Boston College stays out east in Manchester. It’s a lock now that they will be placed here, as they have a 100% chance to finish as the top seed, and New Hampshire has now been knocked out of the Hockey East playoffs.
That leaves Toledo for #2 Michigan State, and Fargo for #4 Minnesota.
- Final Result
Manchester, NH: #1 Boston College vs. #14 Michigan, #8 Providence vs. #10 Denver
Toledo, OH: #2 Michigan State vs. #16 Holy Cross, #7 Connecticut vs. #9 Ohio State
Allentown, PA: #3 Maine vs. #13 Penn State, #6 Boston University vs. #12 Quinnipiac
Fargo, ND: #4 Minnesota vs. #15 Minnesota State, #5 Western Michigan vs. #11 Massachusetts
I just know I’m going to get flamed for this one on social media. Hopefully people will read this before they @ me…
All in all, this isn’t a terrible result attendance-wise for what we were given. Yes the seeding is all messed up, but we’d have some incredible first-round matchups and atmospheres at all four regionals.
Luckily, there’s still one more weekend of games to solve some of this chaos before ‘Selection Sunday.’ We’ll have one more ‘Bracketology’ after the conference championships on Saturday night, a last-minute guess before the bracket is officially revealed on ESPNU on Sunday morning.