ECH “Bracketology”: Version 1.0
Written by alex berger - february 18, 2025Welcome back to ‘Bracketology’ season! It seems like this year has flown by in a flash, as we are now just over a month away from the NCAA Regionals! I hope your teams are doing a bit better than my Fighting Hawks are this season (you’ll find them briefly mentioned below).
This season has been all Hockey East, as the conference is dominating both the top of the polls and the non-conference matchups. The eleven teams posted a combined 75 wins (.715 winning percentage), led by #1 overall seed Boston College who went 8-1-0 against out-of-conference opponents this season. If the season ended today, Hockey East would have an incredible seven teams in the NCAA Tournament.
However, they’re not the best conference this season in terms of total winning percentage. The Big Ten went 51-16-5 against all other conferences, good for a staggering .743 rate. That’s why you see three teams in the top six of the Pairwise this week and another in the NCAA tournament bubble.
Now that the table is set, let’s get back into it. In this article a review of how the NCAA teams are selected, seeded, and placed, plus my own opinion on how the tournament field would stack up if the season ended today.
- How The NCAA Tournament Field Is Determined
16 teams qualify for the NCAA tournament every year. Automatic bids are given to the conference postseason champions, and the other "at large" bids are calculated through the Pairwise. That is, long-story short, a mathematical system that ranks teams based on their record, their opponent's record, and their opponent's opponent's records.
This year, the four regional sites (teams hosting) are in Allentown, Pennsylvania (Penn State), Fargo, North Dakota (North Dakota), Toledo, Ohio (Bowling Green), and Manchester, New Hampshire (New Hampshire). If any of the hosting teams qualify for the tournament, they will be automatically placed at their regional site. The four regional winners go to the Frozen Four, which is in St. Louis, Missouri this year.
In the past, the NCAA tournament selection committee has placed teams at certain regional sites in order to increase attendance. However they also have to balance this with keeping bracket integrity as much as possible (i.e. #1 seed plays #16, #2 plays #15, etc.). Conference matchups are also avoided in the first round of the tournament, which causes matchups to occasionally flip.
Teams have to have a .500 or better record in at least 20 games against Division 1 opponents to be eligible for an at-large bid.
- The Current Field
So, let's start looking at who would be in the tournament if the season ended today. We're taking rankings based on Monday, February 17th. Although anything can happen in the postseason, to make it easier we will use the highest remaining seed in each respective conference tournament.
Automatic Bids: Holy Cross (#27, Atlantic), Michigan State (#2, Big Ten), Minnesota State (#17, CCHA), Quinnipiac (#14, ECAC), Boston College (#1, Hockey East), and Western Michigan (#5, NCHC).
Six teams earn automatic bids, which means the next ten highest ranked teams in the Pairwise earn "at-large" bids. Here is the current top-20 in the Pairwise, credit to College Hockey News.
(Credit: College Hockey News)
"At-Large" Bids: Minnesota, Maine, Ohio State, Boston University, Providence, Connecticut, Denver, UMAss-Lowell, Michigan, and Massachusetts.
We've got our 16 tournament teams. As it stands, the first four teams out would be Arizona State, Penn State, North Dakota, and Cornell. (Note: because New Hampshire is below .500, they are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament).
- Putting Together The Regionals
Now we can start ranking the 16 qualifying teams by seeds using the Pairwise rankings. The top four teams are #1 seeds, next four are #2 seeds, and so on.
#1 Seeds (1-4): #1 Boston College, #2 Michigan State, #3 Minnesota, and #4 Maine
#2 Seeds (5-8): #5 Western Michigan, #6 Ohio State, #7 Boston University, and #8 Providence
#3 Seeds (9-12): #9 Connecticut, #10 Denver, #11 UMass-Lowell, and #12 Michigan
#4 Seeds (13-16): #13 Massacchusetts, #14 Quinnipiac, #15 Minnesota State, and #16 Holy Cross
Next step, matching up teams to keep tournament integrity. We've got eight games in the first round, placed in four different regionals:
Regional 1: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Holy Cross, #8 Providence vs. #9 Connecticut
Regional 2: #2 Michigan State vs. #15 Minnesota State, #7 Boston University vs. #10 Denver
Regional 3: #3 Minnesota vs. #14 Quinnipiac, #6 Ohio State vs. #11 UMass-Lowell
Regional 4: #4 Maine vs. #13 Massachusetts, #5 Western Michigan vs. #12 Michigan
As you can already tell, having seven Hockey East teams creates some issues. Both Providence/Connecticut and Maine/Massachusetts are conference matchups. The latter is easier to fix, swapping #13 with #14, but the 2/3 seedings are harder to solve with two Hockey East Teams in each band of seeds.
Because of those, the only 1-for-1 swap available would be #9 Connecticut and #12 Michigan. However, that would be too big of an advantage for the top seed’s region and a huge disadvantage for #5 Western Michigan. So instead, we’ll have to rearrange all of the matchups to make it at least somewhat fair for every team.
Here’s the best I can come up with, knowing the Boston University “advantage” of playing a lower seed is effectively wiped out with what would likely be a road game in Toledo, Ohio (54 miles from Ann Arbor).
Regional 1: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Holy Cross, #8 Providence vs. #10 Denver
Regional 2: #2 Michigan State vs. #15 Minnesota State, #7 Boston University vs. #12 Michigan
Regional 3: #3 Minnesota vs. #13 Massachusetts, #6 Ohio State vs. #9 Connecticut
Regional 4: #4 Maine vs. #14 Quinnipiac, #5 Western Michigan vs. #11 UMass-Lowell
When determining regional sites, the committee usually recognizes that driving is easier for teams and fans. However, once flying has been determined, it doesn't necessarily matter where that team is flying to. There are two east regionals (Providence, Manchester), one midwest regional (Toledo) and one west regional (Fargo) this year.
As the number one overall seed, Boston College once again gets their preferred regional and will once again stay out east. Manchester is just 50 minutes from Boston, and having Holy Cross and Providence nearby is a plus.
Same idea for Michigan State, who is within driving distance of Toledo (and brings along rival Michigan for the ride).
I would then send Minnesota to Fargo, which leaves Allentown for #4 Maine.
- Final Result
Manchester, NH: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Holy Cross, #8 Providence vs. #10 Denver
Toledo, OH: #2 Michigan State vs. #15 Minnesota State, #7 Boston University vs. #12 Michigan
Fargo, ND:# 3 Minnesota vs. #13 Massachusetts, #6 Ohio State vs. #9 Connecticut
Allentown, PA :#4 Maine vs. #14 Quinnipiac, #5 Western Michigan vs. #11 UMass-Lowell
The biggest thing to keep an eye on over the next month will be how much the Hockey East teams will impact each other through the end of the regular season and into the conference tournament. Right now, all seven teams in this ‘Bracketology’ from the conference have a 45%+ chance to make the tournament (according to CHN). The committee might be hoping for a team or two to drop out of the tournament bubble just to make their jobs easier come ‘Selection Sunday.’
The second thing to keep an eye on is that three teams on the Pairwise bubble right now (Penn State, New Hampshire, and North Dakota) are all regional hosts this season. If any of those teams get in they would automatically host their respective regionals (Allentown, Manchester, and Fargo). Although UNH is currently ineligible for the tournament, those two games can easily be made up.
Again, this is just my opinion on what the committee would do in this scenario, and there is still a lot of the season left to be played. Is there anything you would have done differently? Please make sure to let us know in the comments and across our ECH pages. These will be posted more frequently as we get towards the end of the conference tournaments, so make sure to follow along as we get closer to St. Louis and the Frozen Four.