ECH "Bracketology": Version 6.0
WRITTEN BY ALEX BERGER - February 22nd, 2024This past weekend saw a huge shake up in the Pairwise, mainly from Colorado College's massive sweep over #2 North Dakota and Massachusetts dropping a pair of games to #1 Boston College. The former propelled the Tigers all the way up 11th in the Pairwise rankings, and they're well on their way to their first NCAA tournament appearance in over a decade.
As for the latter, you'll immediately notice the impact of not having UMass in the tournament field. The sweep dropped the Minutemen all the way down to #15, and they'd be the first team out if the tournament started this weekend. Granted, there's still plenty of time for Massachusetts to get back into an at-large bid, but a tight Pairwise bubble really complicates things for those coveted last spots (St. Cloud, Cornell, UMass, and Michigan are separated by just .0072 in the RPI, and it's likely that only two of those teams will be above the cut line for the tournament).
- How The NCAA Tournament Field Is Determined
16 teams qualify for the NCAA tournament every year. Automatic bids are given to the conference postseason champions, and the other "at large" bids are calculated through the Pairwise. That is, long-story short, a mathematical system that ranks teams based on their record, their opponent's record, and their opponent's opponent's records.
This year, the four regional sites (teams hosting) are in Maryland Heights, Missouri (Lindenwood), Providence, Rhode Island (Brown), Sioux Falls, South Dakota (Omaha), and Springfield, Massachusetts (UMass). If any of the hosting teams qualify for the tournament, they will be automatically placed at their regional site. The four regional winners go to the Frozen Four, which is in St. Paul, Minnesota this year.
In the past, the NCAA tournament selection committee has placed teams at certain regional sites in order to increase attendance. However they also have to balance this with keeping bracket integrity as much as possible (i.e. #1 seed plays #16, #2 plays #15, etc.). Conference matchups are also avoided in the first round of the tournament, which causes matchups to occasionally flip.
Teams have to have a .500 or better record in at least 20 games against Division 1 opponents to be eligible for an at-large bid.
- The Current Field
So, let's start looking at who would be in the tournament if the season ended today. We're taking rankings based on Wednesday, February 21st. Although anything can happen in the postseason, to make it easier we will use who is currently leading their respective conferences for the automatic qualifiers.
Automatic Bids: RIT (Atlantic Hockey, #25 in Pairwise), Michigan State (Big Ten, #4), Bemidji State (CCHA, #40), Quinnipiac (ECAC, #8), Boston University (Hockey East, #2), and North Dakota (NCHC, #3).
Six teams earn automatic bids, which means the next ten highest ranked teams in the Pairwise earn "at-large" bids. Here is the current top-20 in the Pairwise, credit to College Hockey News.
"At-Large" Bids: Boston College, Denver, Wisconsin, Maine, Minnesota, Western Michigan, Colorado College, Providence, St. Cloud State, and Cornell.
We've got our 16 teams. As it stands, the first four teams out would be Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Omaha.
- Putting Together The Regionals
Now we can start ranking the 16 qualifying teams by seeds using the Pairwise rankings. The top four teams are #1 seeds, next four are #2 seeds, and so on.
#1 Seeds (1-4): Boston College (#1), Boston University (#2), North Dakota (#3), and Michigan State (#4).
#2 Seeds (5-8): Denver (#5), Wisconsin (#6), Maine (#7), and Quinnipiac (#8).
#3 Seeds (9-12): Minnesota (#9), Western Michigan (#10), Colorado College (#11), and Providence (#12).
#4 Seeds (13-16): St. Cloud State (#13), Cornell (#14), RIT (#15), and Bemidji State (#16)
Next step, matching up teams to keep tournament integrity. We've got eight games in the first round, placed in four different regionals:
Regional 1: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Bemidji State, #8 Quinnipiac vs. #9 Minnesota.
Regional 2: #2 Boston University vs. #15 RIT, #7 Maine vs. #10 Western Michigan.
Regional 3: #3 North Dakota vs. #14 Cornell, #6 Wisconsin vs. #11 Colorado College.
Regional 4: #4 Michigan State vs. #13 St. Cloud State, #5 Denver vs. #12 Providence.
For the second-straight week there are no conference matchups to change, and things work out much easier for the committee with no Massachusetts to worry about. We'll make no changes and have full bracket integrity for the first time this season.
Regional 1: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Bemidji State, #8 Quinnipiac vs. #9 Minnesota.
Regional 2: #2 Boston University vs. #15 RIT, #7 Maine vs. #10 Western Michigan.
Regional 3: #3 North Dakota vs. #14 Cornell, #6 Wisconsin vs. #11 Colorado College.
Regional 4: #4 Michigan State vs. #13 St. Cloud State, #5 Denver vs. #12 Providence.
When determining regional sites, the committee (usually) recognizes that driving is easier for teams and fans. However, once flying has been determined, it doesn't necessarily matter where that team is flying to. There are two east regionals (Providence, Springfield) and two west regionals (Maryland Heights, Sioux Falls) this year.
No hosts this week, so we'll go down right down the list when determining which region goes where. We'll begin with #1 Boston College, who will go in Providence. Not only is it closer, but it has nearly 5,000 more seats in the arena hosting that regional. The Eagles (and two-seed Quinnipiac) should do more than enough to get that rink full.
It's pretty cut and dry after that. #2 Boston University gets to go to Springfield and #3 North Dakota gets to go to Sioux Falls, a win-win. That leaves Maryland Heights for #4 Michigan State.
- Final Result
Providence, RI: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Bemidji State, #8 Quinnipiac vs. #9 Minnesota.
Springfield, MA: #2 Boston University vs. #15 RIT, #7 Maine vs. #10 Western Michigan.
Sioux Falls, SD: #3 North Dakota vs. #14 Cornell, #6 Wisconsin vs. #11 Colorado College.
Maryland Heights, MO: #4 Michigan State vs. #13 St. Cloud State, #5 Denver vs. #12 Providence.
Top to bottom, this is the cleanest version of the bracket we've seen so far this year. It also sets up some great storylines in both the opening round and regional finals. For example, we get a national championship rematch in Providence between Quinnipiac and Minnesota, three of the best goaltenders in the country (Ian Shane, Kyle McClellan, and Kaidan Mbereko) end up in Sioux Falls, and the top two teams from Hockey East face off against some of the best in other conferences.
Is it too early to make a Frozen Four prediction? I'll give you my picks now, just based on how this bracket shook out and how the teams have been playing as of late. Make sure to let us know your own picks on X or Instagram, or tell me why I'm wrong! Give me: Boston College, Boston University, Colorado College, and Denver.
