ECH "Bracketology": Version 2.0

Let's try this one again! After feeling confident about this week's "Bracketology" and sending it off to the presses, it took just 20 minutes for our fans to find mistakes. Credit especially to Brent [@omavshkyfan], Max [@venividivecch], and SCSU Hockey Fanatic [@SCSU_Huskies] for keeping me in place on Twitter (or X, whatever).

One of the two issues that was spotted was the fact that St. Thomas currently leads the CCHA, but is not eligible to make the NCAA Tournament this season. They are still in their mandated NCAA postseason ban following their jump to D1. In this specific scenario, we will use the second-place team in the instance that the Tommies rank first in the conference. The other issue was that I messed up the seeding with New Hampshire and St. Cloud, which will impact where teams are placed. That was likely due to an out-of-date Pairwise pulled into the article, but either way is fixed in this one.

- How The NCAA Tournament Field Is Determined

16 teams qualify for the NCAA tournament every year. Automatic bids are given to the conference postseason champions, and the other "at large" bids are calculated through the Pairwise. That is, long-story short, a mathematical system that ranks teams based on their record, their opponent's record, and their opponent's opponent's records.

This year, the four regional sites (teams hosting) are in Maryland Heights, Missouri (Lindenwood), Providence, Rhode Island (Brown), Sioux Falls, South Dakota (Omaha), and Springfield, Massachusetts (UMass). If any of the hosting teams qualify for the tournament, they will be automatically placed at their regional site. The four regional winners go to the Frozen Four, which is in St. Paul, Minnesota this year.

In the past, the NCAA tournament selection committee has placed teams at certain regional sites in order to increase attendance. However they also have to balance this with keeping bracket integrity as much as possible (i.e. #1 seed plays #16, #2 plays #15, etc.). Conference matchups are also avoided in the first round of the tournament, which causes matchups to occasionally flip.

Teams have to have a .500 or better record in at least 20 games against Division 1 opponents to be eligible for an at-large bid.

- The Current Field

So, let's start looking at who would be in the tournament if the season ended today. We're taking rankings based on Wednesday, January 17th. Although anything can happen in the postseason, to make it easier we will use the highest remaining seed in each respective conference tournament.

Automatic Bids: Sacred Heart (Atlantic Hockey, #44 in Pairwise), Michigan State (Big Ten, #3), Bemidji State*** (CCHA, #38), Quinnipiac (ECAC, #4), Boston University (Hockey East, #1), and St. Cloud State (NCHC, #12).

***: St. Thomas currently ranks first in the CCHA, but is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament in '23-'24

Six teams earn automatic bids, which means the next ten highest ranked teams in the Pairwise earn "at-large" bids. Here is the current top-20 in the Pairwise, credit to College Hockey News.

"At-Large" Bids: Boston College, Wisconsin, Maine, North Dakota, Denver, Providence, Western Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts

We've got our 16 teams. As it stands, the first four teams out would be Michigan, Cornell, Arizona State, and Colorado College

- Putting Together The Regionals

Now we can start ranking the 16 qualifying teams by seeds using the Pairwise rankings. The top four teams are #1 seeds, next four are #2 seeds, and so on.

#1 Seeds (1-4): Boston University (#1), Boston College (#2), Michigan State (#3), and Quinnipiac (#4).

#2 Seeds (5-8): Wisconsin (#5), Maine (#6), North Dakota (#7), and Denver (#8).

#3 Seeds (9-12): Providence (#9), Western Michigan (#10), Minnesota (#11), and St. Cloud State (#12).

#4 Seeds (13-16): New Hampshire (#13), Massachusetts (#14), Bemidji State (#15), and Sacred Heart (#16)

Next step, matching up teams to keep tournament integrity. We've got eight games in the first round, placed in four different regionals:

Regional 1: #1 Boston University vs. #16 Sacred Heart, #8 Denver vs. #9 Providence.

Regional 2: #2 Boston College vs. #15 Bemidji State, #7 North Dakota vs. #10 Western Michigan.

Regional 3: #3 Michigan State vs. #14 Massachusetts, #6 Maine vs. #11 Minnesota.

Regional 4: #4 Quinnipiac vs. #13 New Hampshire, #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 St. Cloud State.

We avoid in-conference matchups outside of just one, #7 North Dakota vs #10 Western Michigan. Knowing UMass' regional has to be placed in Springfield and Boston University and Providence are likely to be placed in Rhode Island, we will swap WMU and Minnesota to place the Gophers in Sioux Falls against UND. That puts at least two local teams in 3 of the 4 regionals.

Regional 1: #1 Boston University vs. #16 Sacred Heart, #8 Denver vs. #9 Providence.

Regional 2: #2 Boston College vs. #15 Bemidji State, #7 North Dakota vs. #11 Minnesota.

Regional 3: #3 Michigan State vs. #14 Massachusetts, #6 Maine vs. #10 Western Michigan.

Regional 4: #4 Quinnipiac vs. #13 New Hampshire, #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 St. Cloud State.

When determining regional sites, the committee (usually) recognizes that driving is easier for teams and fans. However, once flying has been determined, it doesn't necessarily matter where that team is flying to. There are two east regionals (Providence, Springfield) and two west regionals (Maryland Heights, Sioux Falls) this year.

As mentioned above, UMass (along with Michigan State, Maine, and Western Michigan) gets automatically placed in Springfield, MA. As the #1 overall seed Boston University gets first dibs over Quinnipiac to play in Providence. Then we'll place Boston College's regional in Sioux Falls, a downside for them facing off against three local teams. That, sadly, puts two great regional matchups in Maryland Heights. As I mentioned in the first version of this week's "Bracketology," it is already looking unlikely that the regional there will be highly attended. They get lucky here with Wisconsin (5.5 hour drive), but there are only a handful of other programs within driving distance and in the running to make the tournament (i.e. Western Michigan: 6 hours, Omaha: 6.5, Michigan State: 7, etc.). For every other fanbase it will likely require a flight to see their team play.

- Final Result

Providence, RI: #1 Boston University vs. #16 Sacred Heart, #8 Denver vs. #9 Providence.

Sioux Falls, SD: #2 Boston College vs. #15 Bemidji State, #7 North Dakota vs. #11 Minnesota.

Springfield, MA: #3 Michigan State vs. #14 Massachusetts, #6 Maine vs. #10 Western Michigan.

Maryland Heights, MO: #4 Quinnipiac vs. #13 New Hampshire, #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 St. Cloud State.

A couple of minor changes, but it arguably leads to a more even bracket across the board. Apologies again for the slight delay in this week's (accurate) "Bracketology." Make sure to stick with ECH over the next few weeks for our weekly pieces and a couple of features in the works as well.